Sagan’s Blind Spot: How Chaos Theory and Genetics Reopen the Case for Astrology

Rethinking Astrology’s Scientific Basis

For millennia, we have stared into that inky blackness, into that glittering cosmic abyss, and we have felt a connection. It’s a profound human impulse. To see the stars and wonder: are we a part of that? Are our lives, our destinies, entwined in those celestial patterns? This is the heart of astrology – an idea as ancient as it is persistent.

Sagan’s Twin Paradox

Carl Sagan took a look at this in his landmark series Cosmos. He was a master at applying simple, elegant logic to big claims. He posed a challenge – a beautiful, scientific thought experiment: identical twins.

Born minutes apart in the same place, their astrological charts are virtually indistinguishable. If astrology holds true, their lives should follow similar paths. Yet, as Sagan pointed out, their destinies often diverge wildly. One becomes an artist, the other an accountant. One is happy, one is not. For him, this was proof that astrology didn’t work. Case closed?

Well, not so fast. The universe is always more subtle and interconnected than we first assume.

The Twist in the Tale: Twins Reared Apart

Science, you see, keeps moving. After Sagan’s series, from 1979 to 1999, a groundbreaking study began: The Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart. And the results… wow. They are just jaw-dropping.

They found pairs of identical twins, separated at birth, who met for the first time as adults and discovered… well, uncanny similarities. The most famous are the “Jim Twins.” Separated at four weeks old. Reunited at 39.

Both had married women named Linda, divorced them, and remarried women named Betty. Both had a son named James. Both owned a dog named Toy. Both drove the same car, smoked the same cigarettes, and even vacationed at the same beach in Florida.

So, what’s going on here? Sagan’s argument was that twins born at the same time have different fates. But here we have evidence that twins born at the same time can have astonishingly similar ones, even when they don’t know each other.

The Ghost in Our Genes… and in the Cosmos?

The mainstream scientific explanation is, of course, genetics. That this is the power of our DNA: the double-helix code as a staggeringly powerful blueprint for who we are. And not just our eye color, but also our temperaments, preferences and predispositions. It’s a fantastic and simple explanation.

The Rise of Epigenetics

But a new field called epigenetics shows that’s not the whole story. Think of your DNA as a giant cookbook. Epigenetics is the master chef who decides which recipes to use based on environmental cues. The cookbook itself doesn’t change, but based on the environment – stress, diet, toxins, love, cold, heat – the chef decides which recipes to use. It adds a little molecular bookmark here, a sticky note there, telling this gene to be loud and that gene to be quiet.

The Epigenetic Chef

This is why one identical twin can get asthma and the other doesn’t. Their genetic cookbook is identical, but their chefs have made different choices based on different life experiences.

This brings us to the modern case for astrology. If the living cell is an “intelligent system” responding to its environment… what if that environment includes the cosmos? What if the “chef” is, in some small way, listening to the planets?

The Question of Mechanism

Okay. It’s a fascinating idea. So let’s test it.

Scientists have to ask: What is the force? What is the physical mechanism by which Mars – a planet whose gravitational pull on you at birth is less than the pull of the doctor delivering you – can reach into the nucleus of your cell and flip a specific epigenetic switch? Is it gravity? Electromagnetism? The strong or weak nuclear force? Which one? You have to show that a force exists.

Chaos Theory: The Butterfly Effect

How can a distant planet have any effect? This is where we must consider one of the most profound discoveries of modern science: chaos theory.

We’re all familiar with its central metaphor: the “butterfly effect,” where the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil can set off a tornado in Texas. The point is not that the butterfly has the power of a tornado, but that in a complex, dynamic system (like weather, or a human life), a minuscule, barely measurable change in the initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes down the line.

The Lyapunov Exponents

The Lyapunov Exponents

The moment of birth is the ultimate set of “initial conditions” for a human life, the first flutter of possibility, setting the delicate initial conditions that ripple through a life. Like butterfly wings in chaos theory, even the tiniest variations can orchestrate profound destinies.

The Butterfly Wings

This brings us to the modern case for astrology. If the living cell is an “intelligent system” responding to its environment… what if that environment includes the cosmos?

Newsflash: planets already affect life on Earth. Tides, seasons, your vitamin D levels – all cosmic puppetry.

Both gravity and electromagnetic forces can impact genetics by influencing how genes are expressed and how cells function. For example, microgravity conditions can change gene expression patterns related to cell structure, metabolism, and immune responses. Similarly, electromagnetic fields – especially magnetic fields – can also cause changes in gene activity and cell behavior, possibly affecting epigenetic modifications.

For instance gravity: Blaber, E. A., Fogle, H., Dvorochkin, N., Naqvi, S., Lee, C., Yousuf, R., … & Almeida, E. A. (2015). Microgravity induces pelvic bone loss and fatty liver through epigenetic mechanisms. PLoS ONE, 10(4), e0124396.

For instance electromagnetic fields: Cui, Y., Park, J. H., & Miyamoto, Y. (2017). The effect of electromagnetic fields on the epigenetic modifications of DNA and histones. International Journal of Molecular Sciences, 18(12), 2736.


Planetary Gravity as an Initial Condition

The old rebuttal that the doctor’s gravitational pull is stronger than Mars’s is a failure of imagination. It’s not about raw power. Framed by chaos theory, the subtle gravitational state of the entire solar system at the moment you are born doesn’t need to be strong; it just needs to be the initial “flap of the wings” in the incredibly complex system of your life. We have proof that these tiny forces have huge effects over time: science has confirmed that Mars’s gentle, rhythmic tug is enough to alter Earth’s orbit and drive a 2.4-million-year climate cycle. If that’s not a butterfly causing a planetary-scale tornado, what is?

Infant ponders Mars

The Moon: Its gravitational pull is so powerful it moves entire oceans, creating the daily tides. This is a tangible, physical force exerted upon the planet and every living thing on it, a rhythmic pulse that has shaped coastal life for eons.

The following table provides a comprehensive comparison of the maximum possible tide-generating force of the Sun and all planets relative to the Moon:

External forces of gravity on Earth

Planetary Electromagnetism as an Initial Condition:

We know planets are not inert. They are dynamic worlds broadcasting unique energetic signatures. Jupiter and Saturn emit powerful radio waves detectable on Earth. These are not brute forces, but tiny variations in the initial electromagnetic environment – part of the unique cosmic “weather pattern” you were born into. They are another set of butterfly wings, flapping at the precise moment your own complex system began its journey.

The Sun: Its cycles govern our seasons, our climate, and the circadian rhythms that are hard-wired into our biology. The Sun’s immense electromagnetic energy literally fuels our world and directly impacts Earth’s magnetic shield. Its influence is total.

The Radio Planets

The following chart details the magnetic moment of each planet – a measure of the magnetic field’s overall strength – relative to Earth’s.

External electromagnetic forces on Earth

Jupiter‘s powerful magnetosphere accelerates charged particles to incredible energies, producing intense radio waves. These “decametric” radio bursts are so powerful that, at certain frequencies, Jupiter can be the brightest object in the sky after the Sun.

Saturn is a source of intense radio emissions, much like Jupiter. Its auroral radio waves, known as Saturn Kilometric Radiation (SKR), are similar to Jupiter’s but are not powerful enough to be detected by radio telescopes on Earth. However, Saturn produces another, more powerful type of radio signal from massive lightning storms in its atmosphere. These signals, called Saturn Electrostatic Discharges (SEDs), are at least 10,000 times stronger than emissions from terrestrial lightning and have been successfully detected by ground-based radio telescopes.

Uranus and Neptune: The Voyager 2 spacecraft confirmed that both Uranus and Neptune are “radio planets” with complex radio emissions generated by their magnetic fields. However, their radio signals are considerably weaker than those from Jupiter and Saturn. While a tentative detection of Uranus was reported by an Earth-orbiting satellite in the 1970s, the signal was difficult to distinguish from terrestrial interference.

The other rocky planets, Venus and Mars, do not have significant global magnetic fields and are not known to be sources of noticeable radio emissions. However, you will hear radio waves coming from those planets in the following recording:

Our Universe Is Not Silent

All planets in our solar system emit waves, gravitational and electromagnetic. NASA recorded radio waves from planets with the help of spacecraft. They then converted the signals into the audible range of human hearing (20-20,000 Hz). So, you can listen to all planet sounds from space.

Listen to the radio sounds of the planets in our solar system.

A New Cosmic Perspective

I have presented here a number of arguments of why astrology may actually have a scientific basis. Chaos theory explains how small initial differences can have a huge effect. Sagan’s initial argument against serious astrology, is shown to be inconclusive.

There’s a case to be made for the infinitesimal influence of the planets on our DNA, magnified through the Lyapunov exponents.

And I haven’t even touched on the possibility of quantum entanglement of our atoms with the cosmos.

Comparison of similarities between brain astrocyte cells and the cosmic web.

The universe is connected. We are stardust. Now that is a cosmic perspective.


Empirical Evidence

The one characteristic that sets astrology apart from science, and which is cited consistently by sceptics, is the lack of empirical evidence. There are plenty of anecdotes, but quantifiable repeatable evidence?

Not so much, apparently.

Of course, I could tell you that I worked in Brussels in 1989 for a NATO defence contractor, and the manager asked me my star sign, and I told him “Aquarius”, upon which he shook his head and told me: ” I knew it. We have 120 employees here, and 80 of them are Aquarius”. Enough with the anecdotes!

I searched around a bit and found this study in a Postgraduate Medical Journal:

Written in the stars: did your specialty choose you?, by Holly Morgan, Hannah Collins, Sacha Moore, and Catherine Eley, 2022.

They surveyed 1,923 physicians in the UK and uncovered some surprisingly specific, and sometimes quirky, correlations between their zodiac signs, personality traits, and the medical fields they chose.

The patterns they found are intriguing:
Physicians specializing in Care of the Elderly were more likely to be Geminis, known for their communication skills, than Cancers (16.1% vs 2.3%).

Heart of a Lion: Cardiologists, who deal with the heart, were far more likely to be Leos. In the study, 14.4% of cardiologists were Leos, compared to just 3.9% who were Aries.

A Womb with a View: Obstetrics and Gynecology was dominated by Pisces. A full 17.5% of OB-GYNs were Pisces, while there were zero doctors in that specialty who were Sagittarius.

The Practical Capricorn: Those in General Medicine were more likely to be Capricorns (10.4%) than their Aquarius colleagues (6.7%).


Addendum
The Cosmic Irony of Sagan’s Birth Chart

I really wanted to do a horoscope of Carl Sagan:

Birth Information:
Name: Carl Edward Sagan
Date of Birth: November 9, 1934
Time of Birth: 5:05 PM (17:05:00)
Place of Birth: Brooklyn, New York, U.S.

I hit a road block because there is no reliable or verifiable source for his exact birth time. Carl Sagan never spoke about it, nor have his relatives.

An Unverified Source

Carl Sagan’s birth time supposedly was 17:05:00, with the singular source cited as ‘765 Notable Horoscopes‘ on the AstroSage website. ‘Notable Horoscopes’ is a book by B.V. Raman, a respected figure in Vedic astrology. This provided an adhoc time and a traceable source: https://www.astrosage.com/celebrity-horoscope/carl-sagan-birth-chart.asp

A Product of Circular Reasoning

But this raises a number of red flags: his birth time is traced back only to a single origin: a compendium of horoscopes created for the practice of astrology, not for historical accuracy. The claim is contradicted by the complete absence of this information in all reliable records, including extensive biographies, institutional archives, Sagan’s personal papers, and accounts from his family.

The specificity of the time suggests it is not a recorded fact but a “rectified” time, calculated backward to fit a preconceived astrological model, rendering it a product of circular reasoning.

The existence of an unverified astrological birth time for Carl Sagan is not merely a piece of biographical trivia; it is a profound and telling irony.

The sole claim for his time of birth -17:05:00- is uncorroborated, without merit, and should be dismissed as a biographical fact.

I was peeved by this. There’s no record of Carl Sagan’s birth time? I decided to dig deeper.


The Search for the Certificate

With the help of “Upwork”, a professional genealogist and the librarian of the Library of Congress I tracked down Carl Sagan’s birth announcement.

It was deposited in the Seth McFarlane collection. But unfortunately the hospital didn’t write the time of Carl’s birth down. And his birth certificate is sealed from the public until 2035, or some such (100 years after his birth).

An impression of Carl Edward Sagan’s birth announcement.

And there you go. Of course Sagan – the man who spent decades debunking astrology – would ghost us on his own birth time. The cosmic joke writes itself: the astronomer who demanded evidence for the stars’ influence left us no evidence to test his own chart.

But was it only Sagan who is a sceptic of astrology? No, some Christians also have an uneasy time with it… I thought about it briefly, and then found an argument in favour of astrology, related to Christianity, that is hard to dismiss.


The Divine Symphony: A Christian Case for the Stars

While some Christian interpretations of Astrology focus on biblical prohibitions, a deeper reading reveals a more nuanced and even positive relationship between God, the heavens, and humanity. Rather than seeing astrology as a forbidden practice, we can view it as an ancient and intuitive language through which God communicates with all of creation, a truth powerfully demonstrated at the very birth of Christ.

Three Magi follow a star

The birth of Christ was not just announced despite astrology; it was announced through it. The journey of the Magi is a powerful testament that no field of human knowledge is outside of God’s reach. The heavens are not a source of pagan fear but a canvas for divine glory. The story powerfully suggests that for those who seek with a sincere heart, the stars themselves will bow and point the way to the true King.

The Heavens Declare the Glory of God

Psalm 19:1 states this beautifully: “The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the work of his hands.”

In this light, astrology is not a departure from God but an attempt to listen to what His creation is saying. It is an act of paying attention. Why would God create such a magnificent and orderly celestial clockwork if not for it to hold meaning and purpose?

The Goal Determines the Goodness of the Practice

The biblical prohibitions against “divination” are aimed at idolatry—the act of replacing God with something else. They forbid seeking guidance from the stars instead of God. The Magi, however, did the exact opposite.

The Magi: Honored Heroes of the Faith

The story of the Magi is not a cautionary tale, but a story of honor. These astrologers from the East are the first Gentiles in the Gospel of Matthew to recognize and worship Jesus. They are presented as wise, diligent, and faithful seekers.

God Meets Us Where We Are

A loving God communicates with people in a language they can understand. He spoke to fishermen in terms of fishing (“I will make you fishers of men”) and to farmers through parables of sowing seeds. To the Magi, who dedicated their lives to reading the heavens, God spoke through a Star.

A Divine Endorsement: By placing a special star in the sky, God was not setting a trap; He was validating their search. He affirmed that their study of the cosmos was a legitimate path that could lead to Him. The Star of Bethlehem can be seen as God’s ultimate seal of approval on the search for divine truth within the patterns of creation.

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 8: The Cosmic Gold Rush

CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM
For generations, the night sky was a canvas of glittering uncertainty. We gazed upon it, pondered our solitude, and whispered the profound question: Are we alone in the habitable universe? For decades, our answers were mere philosophical musings, tethered by limited data and a rather quaint, Earth-centric view of the cosmos. But that era is over. We stand at the precipice of a new understanding, a scientific awakening that paints a truly breathtaking picture of a universe teeming with possibility.

© A real photograph by astrophotographer Jheison Huerta, displayed with permission

Decoding Destiny: Sagan and the Drake Equation’s Dawn

Once, the Drake Equation – our grand cosmic census – was a theoretical construct, its variables educated guesses in the twilight of astronomical knowledge. Carl Sagan first met Drake and his famous Equation in 1961—it constitutes a framework to estimate the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Sagan, then a young graduate student, became a lifelong advocate for the equation’s optimistic interpretations.

Sagan’s Vision Meets Silicon: Certainty Replaces Cosmic Guesses

Based on the Drake equation, Sagan postulated between 1,000 and 1,000,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan, a visionary, frequently referenced the Drake Equation in his work and often used the original 1961 estimates, peering through the cosmic fog. (But also updated the numbers as new data emerged.) But today, the fog has lifted. The digital revolution, coupled with an explosion in space-faring technology, has ushered in a golden age of discovery, transforming those guesses into empirical certainties.

Exoplanet Explosion: Planets are Everywhere!

The Drake Equation, Copyright by https://sciencenotes.org

Consider the sheer scale. In 1992, the very first exoplanet was found. It was a singular pearl in a cosmic oyster. Now, less than three decades later, missions like Kepler and TESS have opened the floodgates! We’ve tallied nearly 6,000 confirmed worlds (Reference) orbiting distant stars – each a potential cosmic frontier. This staggering avalanche of data tells us something profound: planets are not a rarity; they are the rule. The fraction of stars with planets (fp​) is no longer a hopeful guess of 50%; it’s closer to 100%! Every star you see twinkling above likely harbors its own planetary system.

Cosmic Oases: Billions of Habitable Worlds Beckon

And within these systems, the number of potentially habitable worlds (ne​) is far from a mere statistical blip. Our own Milky Way galaxy alone, that majestic spiral of stars we call home, is now estimated to contain 300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets (Reference). Multiply that by the latest, mind-bending estimate of 2 trillion (or 2000 billion) galaxies (Reference) in the observable universe, and you’re looking at hundreds of billions of billions of cosmic oases!

A Sextillion Planets: Life’s Galactic Revolution

300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets multiplied by 2 trillion galaxies amounts to 600 billion billion to 1000 billion billion habitable planets. In other words, there are 600 qintillion to 1 sextillion potentially habitable planets in the cosmos.

This isn’t just an increase; it’s a galactic revolution in our baseline understanding of where life could arise.

Beyond Homeworlds: Rethinking Civilization’s Lifespan

But here’s where the possibilities truly explode – the “L” factor, the length of time a civilization releases detectable signals. Early calculations often assumed that civilizations were tied to their home world, vulnerable to asteroid impacts, climate change, or even self-destruction. This would lead to a tragically short “L,” perhaps a few thousand years. But for a truly advanced civilization, one that masters stellar energies, perhaps even galactic resources, simply staying put on one fragile world is a cosmic folly.

Cosmic Nomads: Galactic Colonization Extends ‘L’

Single Planet vs Multi System Civilizations

Frank Drake’s original formula makes no allowance for the ability of technological civilizations to colonize other planets or solar systems.

But as soon as another world is colonized, the chance of survival increases. Therefore far more older technical civilizations with space faring capability than Sagan originally assumed may exist.

A short critique of the Drake equation as commonly understood:

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals. Earth itself has released easily detectable radio and TV signals for only 40 to 60 years before switching to spread spectrum digital communication, satellite, cable and internet. The signals that Earth is still leaking into space are random and repeating pings and blips from powerful radar, and unintelligible signals from digital sources that blend into the cosmic background noise (CMB).

A civilization with space-faring capability, even one moving at a fraction of light speed, could colonize its entire galaxy in a mere 5 to 50 million years. In the cosmic timescale of billions of years, this is but the blink of an eye!

Blink Of An Eye

Colonization acts as a cosmic insurance policy, diversifying risk and extending the effective “lifetime” of a civilization from millennia to millions, even billions of years. This utterly transforms the “N” in the Drake Equation, suggesting a universe far more populated with ancient, thriving civilizations than we dared to dream. We’re talking about the emergence of Kardashev Type I, Type II, Type III and even Type IV civilizations – those that harness the power of their planet, their star, their galaxy or even the entire universe!

The Great Cosmic Silence: Unraveling the Fermi Paradox

Of course, the cosmic riddle persists: The Fermi Paradox. If the universe is so abundant with life, where is everybody? The silence, the eerie quiet of the cosmos, has led to theories like the “Great Filter” – a bottleneck that prevents life from reaching advanced stages, either in our past (making us incredibly rare) or, more ominously, in our future (a catastrophic universal speed bump). Or perhaps the “Rare Earth Hypothesis,” suggesting our planet’s specific conditions for complex life are extraordinarily unique.

Echoes of Advanced Life? Or a Cosmic Sanctuary Awaits?

But even these daunting questions now inspire a different kind of optimism. Perhaps the “Great Filter” lies behind us, making our existence all the more triumphant. Perhaps extraterrestrial civilizations are so vastly more advanced (Type III-IV) that their communications are simply beyond our current comprehension, a cosmic symphony we lack the instruments to hear.

And maybe the answer to the Fermi paradox is another: THE SANCTUARY HYPOTHESIS- coming soon.

The Sanctuary Hypothesis

The Quest Continues: A Universe Primed for Discovery

The search for ETI is no longer a fringe endeavor; it is a fundamental “market research” initiative into the ultimate cosmic landscape. The data is overwhelmingly in favor of abundance. The universe is a grand laboratory, a vast stage for the emergence of life and intelligence. And as we continue to unlock its secrets, each new discovery amplifies the profound conviction that we are not alone. The grandest adventure of all is just beginning.

“Billions and Billions”: The Catchphrase That Captured the Cosmos

One Sagan: The iconic catchphrase, “billions and billions,” was popularized by comedian Johnny Carson, who hosted The Tonight Show. Carson frequently did affectionate parodies of Sagan, mimicking his voice and intellectual demeanor, and in these skits, he would often quip, “billions and billions!”

This parody was so pervasive and well-loved that it became the phrase most people associated with Sagan, even though he didn’t originally say it that way. Sagan himself acknowledged this humorous invention by Carson and even titled his final book, published posthumously in 1997, Billions and Billions: Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium, playfully embracing the phrase that had become his popular legacy.

Million to Billion convertor

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 7: The UFO controversy

Sagan’s UFO Paradox: Fostering Scientific Rigor Through Skepticism and Advocacy

A landmark event highlighted the Carl Sagan UFO controversy: the 1969 symposium he co-organized for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This meeting notably brought together leading UFO proponents, such as J. Allen Hynek.

Cameo of J. Allen Hynek in “Close Encounters Of The Third Kind”, an UFO encounter category he defined himself..

The meeting also included prominent skeptics, like the first theoretical astronomer of the United States, Donald Menzel. In 1968, Menzel testified before the U.S. House Committee on Science and Astronautics – Symposium on UFOs, stating that he, Menzel, considered all UFO sightings to have natural explanations.

While critics accused Sagan of legitimizing what they considered a “pseudoscience,” Sagan defended the AAAS symposium. He argued that significant public interest in UFOs warranted serious scientific scrutiny.

Carl Sagan was a prominent advocate for the search for extraterrestrial life. Yet, he remained a skeptic regarding Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) as evidence of alien visitation. This seemingly contradictory stance fueled the ongoing debate between UFO skeptics and believers. This is often referred to as the Carl Sagan UFO controversy.

Sagan’s influence on UFO studies produced its most significant beneficial effect by pushing researchers to ground their investigations more firmly in scientific methods. This emphasis on rigor contributed to the emergence of two distinct categories of researchers in the field.


SKEPTICS VS. BELIEVERS: The Secret War Over UFOs

A: Serious UAP researchers who set themselves the goal of identifying and cataloging UFOs, with the main focus on the assumption that there can be no extraterrestrial UFOs. Their focus was on finding conventional, or “banal,” explanations for sightings. They aimed to demystify the phenomenon and bring it within the realm of established science. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy played a role in how these explanations were pursued.

B: Marginalized Fringe UFO researchers, who in contrast remained open to, or actively pursued, the hypothesis of extraterrestrial intelligence behind UFO sightings found themselves increasingly on the periphery. This group, while not necessarily uncritical or prone to accepting every hoax, was willing to explore unconventional explanations. These were explanations that the “serious” camp often dismissed outright.

UAP or UFO? The Government’s Sneaky Word Game to HIDE the Extraterrestrial Truth!

The contemporary preference for the term UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon or Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) rather than UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) starkly reflects the divide between serious and fringe research.

While both terms essentially refer to the same core mystery—observed objects or phenomena in the sky that are not immediately identifiable—’UAP’ has gained traction among those seeking to legitimize their research. They want to avoid the cultural baggage and stigma associated with ‘UFOs,’ which are often colloquially synonymous with alien spacecraft. This shift is part of the Carl Sagan UFO controversy, as different terminologies affect the perception of research.

Researchers, particularly those affiliated with governmental or academic institutions, often opt for ‘UAP’ to protect their professional reputations. They use it to signal a more data-driven, agnostic approach, free from preconceived notions of extraterrestrial involvement.


“BANAL” OR ALIEN? Inside the Bitter Feud Splitting UFO Hunters in Two!

The comparison between a case like the authors “Mufon UFO case #111680” and a frame from the Pentagon’s “Gimbal UAP” video can illustrate this division:

A MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) case, typically investigated by citizen researchers often aligned with the “fringe” category (though MUFON itself has varying methodologies), might present evidence and interpretations that lean towards or explicitly suggest an extraordinary (extraterrestrial) origin.

A government source released the “Gimbal” video, and serious UAP researchers—including military and intelligence analysts—analyzed it. They discussed its flight characteristics, sensor data, and possible but elusive mundane explanations. Although they acknowledge the video’s anomalous nature, they focus their rigorous approach on ruling out known technologies or natural phenomena.

In contrast, the “fringe” perspective may treat the footage as evidence supporting an extraterrestrial hypothesis. But this is due to careful consideration.

“FRINGE” RESEARCHERS FIGHT BACK

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. As a result, these inquiries were pushed to the margins. This is a key part of what makes the Carl Sagan UFO controversy so enduring.

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. Consequently, such inquiries were pushed to the margins.

PHOTO PROOF? 1947 UFO vs. Pentagon’s “Gimbal” UAP

Similarities. Left: 1947 – first modern UFO sighting, Kenneth Arnold
Right: 2015 – Pentagon Gimbal UAP. © ContactProject.org 25. May 2025

SAGAN’S PARADOX: Did His “Science First” Rule KILL the Search for Alien Life?

Was Sagan a hero of reason—or did his skepticism accidentally suppress the truth? The ongoing debate and the terminological distinctions highlight this enduring tension between cautious, mainstream scientific inquiry and the persistent, more speculative allure of the unknown inherent in the UFO/UAP enigma. Discussions continue over his role and influence in shaping public perception and scientific investigation of unexplained aerial phenomena. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy exemplifies this tension.

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 5: Cosmos Eating Space Probes and Sagan’s Response

SELF-REPLICATING PROBES

In the context of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Search, in 1980 the mathematical physicist and cosmologist Frank J. Tipler published a paper, “Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist.”

Tipler sought a universal principle to explain the Fermi Paradox: the apparent absence of extraterrestrial beings on Earth. He contended that if extraterrestrial intelligent beings existed, then their manifestations would be obvious. Conversely, since there is no evidence of their presence, they do not exist.

Von Neumann Probes

Frank Tipler argued that if any extraterrestrial civilization ever built self-replicating von Neumann starprobes, those probes would grow exponentially. They would fill the galaxy in a few million years. Since we don’t see them here, Tipler concluded there are no other intelligent civilizations.

  • Tipler assumed each probe would land on a new world and make just one or a few copies before moving on. However, he had no reason to limit its reproduction so drastically.

  • Even if each probe were only 10 grams and doubled once per decade, in about 150 generations we’d have the mass of an entire galaxy. This conversion to machines would be on the order of 1 followed by 54 zeros grams (1 quindecillion tons). Moreover, this transformation would occur in less than 15 million years.

  • Because we see no evidence of such galaxy-eating machines anywhere, Tipler said no one else ever invented them. Therefore, no one else is out there.


SAGAN’S RESPONSE

Carl Sagan pondered the arithmetic of Tipler’s solipsist argument. His response is a classic in the realm of science and philosophy. He draws attention to the limitations of our current knowledge and the vastness of the universe. By stating, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Sagan cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t know.

Sagan and William I. Newman challenged Tipler’s assumptions and conclusions, proposing a more realistic colonization model based on population growth and organization. This alternative model estimates a galaxy-crossing time of approximately one billion years, significantly longer than Tipler’s few million years.

Sagan further suggests that self-replicating probes are subject to evolutionary divergence, imposing unacceptable risks to altruistic extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI). The ETI only communicate with other ETI through signals. This argument assumes that self-replicating machines are essentially uncontrollable because they must evolve.

Sagan and Newman also propose that the emergence of powerful weapons of mass destruction may impose a universal brake on unchecked expansion. This could potentially limit the spread of advanced civilizations. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of experimentation in resolving the Fermi Paradox. Systematic searches using radio telescopes and other tools are necessary to settle the question of whether we are alone in the universe.


Terrestrial Shortsightedness

Imagine New York in 1894, its streets choked with the clatter of hooves. Its futurists were drowned in calculations of manure. They predicted that by 1944 New York would drown in horse manure.

The futurists only saw linearity: more carriages, more waste, an apocalypse of filth. However, they could not fathom the silent revolution already stirring—the internal combustion engine, the horseless carriage—a paradigm shift that would render their equations relics.

So too might we falter when envisioning the starfarers of tomorrow. To assume interstellar travel or contact must devour suns is to chain possibility to the physics of this moment. What of the technologies unimagined? The spacetime shortcuts, the dark energy harnessed, the self-replicating probes born of nanoengineering? The cosmos whispers of mysteries we have yet to decode.

Carl Sagan may have cautioned Tipler that his reasoning could mirror that of the horse-cart prophets. One may fail to see beyond the boundaries of the known. The universe is not merely a puzzle to solve with present tools. It is also a frontier that reshapes the solver. As we once tamed fire and split the atom, so too might we one day dance with the fabric of spacetime itself. The answer to the Fermi paradox may not lie in the scarcity of civilizations. It may lie in the humility of our assumptions.

After all, the stars are not merely endpoints. They are teachers. Their greatest lesson might be this: To traverse the light-years, we must first learn to think in ways as boundless as the dark between galaxies.

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 3: Skepticism and Egyptian Mysticism

UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar

Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)

Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.


Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals

Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.

Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.

The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.


THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism

Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.

Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.

And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.

The symbol of the Sphinx Head Tomb Secret Society, Cornell University

What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.

Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.

What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 2: Extraordinary Claims and the Bermuda Triangle

“Extraordinary?” Sagan’s 1977 Standard Stuns UFO Dreamers

In 1977, when the film “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” was released, Washington Post readers first heard of the “Sagan Standard”: that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Carl Sagan uttered this aphorism in relation to the first film scene. In the scene, planes were found in the Sahara which years earlier disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle. The notion of extraordinary claims was central to Sagan’s skepticism about extraterrestrial causes.

“There is no evidence that lights in the sky or the disappearance of ships or planes are due to extraterrestrial interference (in the Bermuda Triangle)”, Sagan said.


Bermuda Triangle Bombshell: Planes, Submarines & Atomic Mystery

Bermuda Triangle, 1986:
Nine years later, in the shadowy depths of the North Atlantic, the Russian nuclear submarine K-219 vanished beneath the waves. It left a chilling mystery in its wake. As the vessel settled silently on the ocean floor—nearly 18,000 feet (5.5 kilometers) below the surface—a more disturbing discovery emerged. The submarine’s full arsenal of nuclear warheads had inexplicably disappeared, raising extraordinary claims about what might have occurred.

Any attempt to retrieve or remove the warheads should have been impossible at such an unfathomable depth. It was beyond the reach of all human technology in 1986. Yet, the weapons had vanished nonetheless, leaving behind only unanswered questions and a silence as deep as the ocean itself.

Official records claim that the catastrophic incident aboard K-219 took place hundreds of miles from the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. This spot was the very location where the lost submarine ultimately came to rest (Wikipedia).

Yet this contradiction is curious, to say the least, inviting extraordinary claims and speculations.


Deep-Sea Riddle: Vanished Russian Nukes Hide Under Triangle

Consult the Marine Gazetteer Map, and you’ll notice a small dot nestled between Miami and Bermuda. This is the location of the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. In other words, it is inside the notorious Bermuda Triangle.

Science moves forward through doubt, evidence, and the enduring patience to pursue both. But in a case like this, extraordinary claims about the vanished nukes cannot help but intrigue those. These claims make people wonder what secrets still lie hidden beneath those mysterious waters.

Location of the sunk Russian nuclear submarine K-219. Until now, no publication has linked it’s sinking and the disappearance of it’s nuclear arsenal to the presence of the Bermuda Triangle.

Cosmos Mania: Sagan Turns the Universe into Prime-Time TV

In 1980 the name Sagan finally became a household name when Carl presented his extraordinarily successful TV series “Cosmos.”

The series covered topics ranging from the origin of life to a perspective of our place in the universe.

The Sagan Standard, first phrased in the Washington Post article from December 1977, that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” became the mantra of the series. Carl claimed that nearly every UFO sighting is based on optical illusions and misinterpretations.

Carl Sagan wrote regarding UFO claims:

“When confronted with a claim for which there is no compelling evidence, we should reserve judgment. I know of no evidence for visits to Earth by beings from other worlds.”

  • – Carl Sagan

You’re warped onto the home world of friendly aliens in some unknown part of the Galaxy. How would you describe Earth’s location in the universe to them?

Pulsar Map Tattoo

I would show them my pulsar map. Astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake designed the map, working with fellow astronomer Carl Sagan and artist and writer Linda Salzman Sagan. The pulsar map shows the location of our sun relative to known pulsars. This map was placed on the interstellar space probes Voyager 1 & 2 in 1977.

The map is slightly inaccurate because of a rounding error on one pulsar, but its better than nothing.

Whether or not to have a tattoo of it is debatable. A dog tag may be easier to carry.


The Magic About Pulsars
Discovered in 1967 by Northern Irish astrophysicist Jocelyn Bell Burnell, pulsars were described by Antony Hewish to be the remains of collapsed suns.

For reasons not entirely understood they emit pulses of radio waves (and like lighthouses sometimes visible light) with the accuracy of atomic clocks, staying active for billions of years. It has something to do with magnetic fields.


Frank Drake drew the pulsar map using 14 pulsars that were known in the early 1970’s. Today we know of many more pulsars but they are not as powerful and bright. Frank Drake’s original pencil-drawn pulsar map today lives in an old tomato box at home.

Frank Drake hand drawn original pulsar map that went to Outer Space.

Each pulsar is connected to the sun by a solid line. The length of the line represents the pulsar’s approximate relative distance from the sun.
Etched along each of the pulsar lines are vertical and horizontal dashes that represent a binary number that can be converted into a decimal.
When multiplied by a known measure of time, that number reveals the frequency of the pulsar—how fast it spins and flashes.

Successfully decoding the map would unambiguously pinpoint the sun’s position and the time frame of the spacecraft’s launch.

This is an article by the “Contact Project”.

We can be found on https://contactproject.org.

The Contact Project is also on reddit: https://reddit.com/r/contactproject


Reference:
How to Read a Pulsar Map
https://www.pbs.org/the-farthest/science/pulsar-map/

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4. WHAT IS A UFO?

The author examining 35 mm negative with a digital microscope, MUFON case #111680, 1995.

It isn’t clear if UAPs are the product of human or non-human technology. It is only by their shape and fantastic alien flight characteristics that a non-human origin can be inferred. Human planes can not make 90° hairpin turns or accelerate from zero to hypersonic speeds in the fraction of a second.

Prof. Kevin Knuth, Associate Professor of Physics and Informatics, University at Albany, explained this in his article “Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles“.

The majority of the public believes that other intelligent life in the cosmos exists and that we are not the only species inhabiting the Universe. This concept was popularized in the TV show “Cosmos” by exobiologist Carl Sagan and it is held to be true in the general consensus.

People who believe that humanity plays a more special role in the cosmos (anthropocentrists) do think that UFOs come from our own future, instead from alien worlds. They cite the large distances between solar systems as an obstacle for interplanetary spacecraft to make contact.

Some people think that it would be easier to build a time machine than a faster than light spacecraft. Otoh, with a time machine, superluminal flight would be easy. Just slow down the clock dial whilst maintaining forward momentum and viola!, speed is increased.

Superluminal flight implies time travel, according to Einstein’s theory of relativity. Time slows down progressively the more one approaches the speed of light. And should one travel in excess of light speed, then time begins running backwards. That follows from the theory and mathematics of relativity, which does not consider time paradoxes. It’s just numbers.

Book cover of “Identified Flying Objects”, 2019, by anthropologist Michael Paul Masters

Professor of anthropology Dr. Michael Paul Masters is one of the proponents of the UFO as time travelers. He explained it in more detail in his book “Identified Flying Objects” calling the time travelling occupants of these craft “extratempestrials”.

I believe that it’s a definitive possibility that some UFOs do come from our own future. Yet the infinity of possible futures in time means that SOME UFOs will also come from other worlds, even if it’s just our mutated time-traveling offspring from thousands of years into the future visiting their ancestral home planet.

If they exist they may be just visiting their ancestral home planet, or their great-great-great-great-great-grandfather. Is there a paradox?

The Contact Initiative (https://reddit.com/r/contactproject) wants to discover if it’s possible to make radio contact with UFOs, to ask them what they are. It’s as simple as that.

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