Month: May 2025

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 8: The Cosmic Gold Rush

CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM
For generations, the night sky was a canvas of glittering uncertainty. We gazed upon it, pondered our solitude, and whispered the profound question: Are we alone in the habitable universe? For decades, our answers were mere philosophical musings, tethered by limited data and a rather quaint, Earth-centric view of the cosmos. But that era is over. We stand at the precipice of a new understanding, a scientific awakening that paints a truly breathtaking picture of a universe teeming with possibility.

© A real photograph by astrophotographer Jheison Huerta, displayed with permission

Decoding Destiny: Sagan and the Drake Equation’s Dawn

Once, the Drake Equation – our grand cosmic census – was a theoretical construct, its variables educated guesses in the twilight of astronomical knowledge. Carl Sagan first met Drake and his famous Equation in 1961—it constitutes a framework to estimate the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Sagan, then a young graduate student, became a lifelong advocate for the equation’s optimistic interpretations.

Sagan’s Vision Meets Silicon: Certainty Replaces Cosmic Guesses

Based on the Drake equation, Sagan postulated between 1,000 and 1,000,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan, a visionary, frequently referenced the Drake Equation in his work and often used the original 1961 estimates, peering through the cosmic fog. (But also updated the numbers as new data emerged.) But today, the fog has lifted. The digital revolution, coupled with an explosion in space-faring technology, has ushered in a golden age of discovery, transforming those guesses into empirical certainties.

Exoplanet Explosion: Planets are Everywhere!

The Drake Equation, Copyright by https://sciencenotes.org

Consider the sheer scale. In 1992, the very first exoplanet was found. It was a singular pearl in a cosmic oyster. Now, less than three decades later, missions like Kepler and TESS have opened the floodgates! We’ve tallied nearly 6,000 confirmed worlds (Reference) orbiting distant stars – each a potential cosmic frontier. This staggering avalanche of data tells us something profound: planets are not a rarity; they are the rule. The fraction of stars with planets (fp​) is no longer a hopeful guess of 50%; it’s closer to 100%! Every star you see twinkling above likely harbors its own planetary system.

Cosmic Oases: Billions of Habitable Worlds Beckon

And within these systems, the number of potentially habitable worlds (ne​) is far from a mere statistical blip. Our own Milky Way galaxy alone, that majestic spiral of stars we call home, is now estimated to contain 300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets (Reference). Multiply that by the latest, mind-bending estimate of 2 trillion (or 2000 billion) galaxies (Reference) in the observable universe, and you’re looking at hundreds of billions of billions of cosmic oases!

A Sextillion Planets: Life’s Galactic Revolution

300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets multiplied by 2 trillion galaxies amounts to 600 billion billion to 1000 billion billion habitable planets. In other words, there are 600 qintillion to 1 sextillion potentially habitable planets in the cosmos.

This isn’t just an increase; it’s a galactic revolution in our baseline understanding of where life could arise.

Beyond Homeworlds: Rethinking Civilization’s Lifespan

But here’s where the possibilities truly explode – the “L” factor, the length of time a civilization releases detectable signals. Early calculations often assumed that civilizations were tied to their home world, vulnerable to asteroid impacts, climate change, or even self-destruction. This would lead to a tragically short “L,” perhaps a few thousand years. But for a truly advanced civilization, one that masters stellar energies, perhaps even galactic resources, simply staying put on one fragile world is a cosmic folly.

Cosmic Nomads: Galactic Colonization Extends ‘L’

Single Planet vs Multi System Civilizations

Frank Drake’s original formula makes no allowance for the ability of technological civilizations to colonize other planets or solar systems.

But as soon as another world is colonized, the chance of survival increases. Therefore far more older technical civilizations with space faring capability than Sagan originally assumed may exist.

A short critique of the Drake equation as commonly understood:

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals. Earth itself has released easily detectable radio and TV signals for only 40 to 60 years before switching to spread spectrum digital communication, satellite, cable and internet. The signals that Earth is still leaking into space are random and repeating pings and blips from powerful radar, and unintelligible signals from digital sources that blend into the cosmic background noise (CMB).

A civilization with space-faring capability, even one moving at a fraction of light speed, could colonize its entire galaxy in a mere 5 to 50 million years. In the cosmic timescale of billions of years, this is but the blink of an eye!

Blink Of An Eye

Colonization acts as a cosmic insurance policy, diversifying risk and extending the effective “lifetime” of a civilization from millennia to millions, even billions of years. This utterly transforms the “N” in the Drake Equation, suggesting a universe far more populated with ancient, thriving civilizations than we dared to dream. We’re talking about the emergence of Kardashev Type I, Type II, Type III and even Type IV civilizations – those that harness the power of their planet, their star, their galaxy or even the entire universe!

The Great Cosmic Silence: Unraveling the Fermi Paradox

Of course, the cosmic riddle persists: The Fermi Paradox. If the universe is so abundant with life, where is everybody? The silence, the eerie quiet of the cosmos, has led to theories like the “Great Filter” – a bottleneck that prevents life from reaching advanced stages, either in our past (making us incredibly rare) or, more ominously, in our future (a catastrophic universal speed bump). Or perhaps the “Rare Earth Hypothesis,” suggesting our planet’s specific conditions for complex life are extraordinarily unique.

Echoes of Advanced Life? Or a Cosmic Sanctuary Awaits?

But even these daunting questions now inspire a different kind of optimism. Perhaps the “Great Filter” lies behind us, making our existence all the more triumphant. Perhaps extraterrestrial civilizations are so vastly more advanced (Type III-IV) that their communications are simply beyond our current comprehension, a cosmic symphony we lack the instruments to hear.

And maybe the answer to the Fermi paradox is another: THE SANCTUARY HYPOTHESIS- coming soon.

The Sanctuary Hypothesis

The Quest Continues: A Universe Primed for Discovery

The search for ETI is no longer a fringe endeavor; it is a fundamental “market research” initiative into the ultimate cosmic landscape. The data is overwhelmingly in favor of abundance. The universe is a grand laboratory, a vast stage for the emergence of life and intelligence. And as we continue to unlock its secrets, each new discovery amplifies the profound conviction that we are not alone. The grandest adventure of all is just beginning.

“Billions and Billions”: The Catchphrase That Captured the Cosmos

One Sagan: The iconic catchphrase, “billions and billions,” was popularized by comedian Johnny Carson, who hosted The Tonight Show. Carson frequently did affectionate parodies of Sagan, mimicking his voice and intellectual demeanor, and in these skits, he would often quip, “billions and billions!”

This parody was so pervasive and well-loved that it became the phrase most people associated with Sagan, even though he didn’t originally say it that way. Sagan himself acknowledged this humorous invention by Carson and even titled his final book, published posthumously in 1997, Billions and Billions: Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium, playfully embracing the phrase that had become his popular legacy.
Johnny Carson’s spoof of Carl Sagan’s Cosmos
In 1980, Johnny Carson did a short spoof of Carl Sagan’s Cosmos, which aired on PBS that year to huge ratings and rave reviews. Carson does a terrific impres…
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Million to Billion convertor

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 7: The UFO controversy

Sagan’s UFO Paradox: Fostering Scientific Rigor Through Skepticism and Advocacy

A landmark event highlighted the Carl Sagan UFO controversy: the 1969 symposium he co-organized for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This meeting notably brought together leading UFO proponents, such as J. Allen Hynek.

Cameo of J. Allen Hynek in “Close Encounters Of The Third Kind”, an UFO encounter category he defined himself..

The meeting also included prominent skeptics, like the first theoretical astronomer of the United States, Donald Menzel. In 1968, Menzel testified before the U.S. House Committee on Science and Astronautics – Symposium on UFOs, stating that he, Menzel, considered all UFO sightings to have natural explanations.

While critics accused Sagan of legitimizing what they considered a “pseudoscience,” Sagan defended the AAAS symposium. He argued that significant public interest in UFOs warranted serious scientific scrutiny.

Carl Sagan was a prominent advocate for the search for extraterrestrial life. Yet, he remained a skeptic regarding Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) as evidence of alien visitation. This seemingly contradictory stance fueled the ongoing debate between UFO skeptics and believers. This is often referred to as the Carl Sagan UFO controversy.

Sagan’s influence on UFO studies produced its most significant beneficial effect by pushing researchers to ground their investigations more firmly in scientific methods. This emphasis on rigor contributed to the emergence of two distinct categories of researchers in the field.

SKEPTICS VS. BELIEVERS: The Secret War Over UFOs

A: Serious UAP researchers who set themselves the goal of identifying and cataloging UFOs, with the main focus on the assumption that there can be no extraterrestrial UFOs. Their focus was on finding conventional, or “banal,” explanations for sightings. They aimed to demystify the phenomenon and bring it within the realm of established science. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy played a role in how these explanations were pursued.

B: Marginalized Fringe UFO researchers, who in contrast remained open to, or actively pursued, the hypothesis of extraterrestrial intelligence behind UFO sightings found themselves increasingly on the periphery. This group, while not necessarily uncritical or prone to accepting every hoax, was willing to explore unconventional explanations. These were explanations that the “serious” camp often dismissed outright.

UAP or UFO? The Government’s Sneaky Word Game to HIDE the Extraterrestrial Truth!

The contemporary preference for the term UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon or Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) rather than UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) starkly reflects the divide between serious and fringe research.

While both terms essentially refer to the same core mystery—observed objects or phenomena in the sky that are not immediately identifiable—’UAP’ has gained traction among those seeking to legitimize their research. They want to avoid the cultural baggage and stigma associated with ‘UFOs,’ which are often colloquially synonymous with alien spacecraft. This shift is part of the Carl Sagan UFO controversy, as different terminologies affect the perception of research.

Researchers, particularly those affiliated with governmental or academic institutions, often opt for ‘UAP’ to protect their professional reputations. They use it to signal a more data-driven, agnostic approach, free from preconceived notions of extraterrestrial involvement.

“BANAL” OR ALIEN? Inside the Bitter Feud Splitting UFO Hunters in Two!

The comparison between a case like the authors “Mufon UFO case #111680” and a frame from the Pentagon’s “Gimbal UAP” video can illustrate this division:

A MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) case, typically investigated by citizen researchers often aligned with the “fringe” category (though MUFON itself has varying methodologies), might present evidence and interpretations that lean towards or explicitly suggest an extraordinary (extraterrestrial) origin.

A government source released the “Gimbal” video, and serious UAP researchers—including military and intelligence analysts—analyzed it. They discussed its flight characteristics, sensor data, and possible but elusive mundane explanations. Although they acknowledge the video’s anomalous nature, they focus their rigorous approach on ruling out known technologies or natural phenomena.

In contrast, the “fringe” perspective may treat the footage as evidence supporting an extraterrestrial hypothesis. But this is due to careful consideration.

Unusual Flight Characteristics in Navy’s 2015 Gimbal UAP Sighting
A study by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff analyzes the Gimbal UAP video.

“FRINGE” RESEARCHERS FIGHT BACK

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. As a result, these inquiries were pushed to the margins. This is a key part of what makes the Carl Sagan UFO controversy so enduring.

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. Consequently, such inquiries were pushed to the margins.

PHOTO PROOF? 1947 UFO vs. Pentagon’s “Gimbal” UAP

Similarities. Left: 1947 – first modern UFO sighting, Kenneth Arnold
Right: 2015 – Pentagon Gimbal UAP. © ContactProject.org 25. May 2025

SAGAN’S PARADOX: Did His “Science First” Rule KILL the Search for Alien Life?

Was Sagan a hero of reason—or did his skepticism accidentally suppress the truth? The ongoing debate and the terminological distinctions highlight this enduring tension between cautious, mainstream scientific inquiry and the persistent, more speculative allure of the unknown inherent in the UFO/UAP enigma. Discussions continue over his role and influence in shaping public perception and scientific investigation of unexplained aerial phenomena. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy exemplifies this tension.

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 6: Explaining Away Alien Sightings

“Alien lifeforms would visit Earth only if life in the universe is rare,
but then there wouldn’t be enough alien visitors to explain the countless UFO reports.”

Did Carl Sagan privately believe in UFOs, despite his public skepticism? 🤔 Dive into ‘The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 6,’ which explores Sagan’s famous argument against extraterrestrial visits and fascinating claims about his alleged private views. Investigative journalist Paola Harris shares an account from Dr. J. Allen Hynek, suggesting Sagan might have admitted to believing UFOs were real, but couldn’t risk his research funding by speaking openly. Discover the tension between Sagan’s public stance and these intriguing allegations.

Sagan’s Defining Argument

The “Sagan Paradox” was first formulated in 1969 at an American symposium on the UFO phenomenon in Boston. Carl Sagan and Thornton Page served as co-chairs of this event. It was sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The title of the symposium was: UFOs – The Scientific Debate

It was here that the renowned astrophysicist Carl Sagan advanced an argument. The argument was meant to explain why there could be no extraterrestrially crewed “flying saucers.”

The Boston War Memorial Auditorium, site of the AAAS symposium in December 26.-28. Dec. 1969

The Rare Earth Hypothesis: Sagan’s Core Premise for
“THE SAGAN PARADOX”

Carl Sagan argued that the Earth had to be somehow special in the cosmos to attract the attention of aliens. The special position of the Earth is its life on it, which Sagan said is very rare in the cosmos.

Because life in the cosmos is so rare, according to Carl Sagan, there are not enough extraterrestrial civilizations in the vicinity of the Earth. Therefore, they cannot visit us in the huge numbers that the thousands of UFO sightings every year since 1947 suggest (~2312 yearly).

On the other hand, if there were actually as many alien civilizations as the number of sightings suggests, then life on Earth would not be special. Consequently, our planet would not be worth visiting with a spaceship.

As a result, UFOs controlled by aliens could not exist but are exclusively false alerts, implied Sagan.

Mock-up and additional enhancement of the famous British Calvine UFO photo, after Nick Pope. The original six photos are in color. The MOD has blocked their release until 2072. Wikipedia

The core of this paradox, as presented by Sagan, lies in the tension between the potential number of advanced technical civilizations in the galaxy and the lack of convincing evidence for frequent visits to Earth.

Sagan’s Skepticism: Witness Testimony

Carl Sagan regarded witness evidence for UFOs as insufficient to constitute robust scientific proof. He attributed accounts to human fallibilities, including emotional desire, boredom, paranoia, and a low tolerance for ambiguity. Consequently, these factors often result in self-deception and the misinterpretation of ordinary phenomena.

Photographic Evidence

Sagan also found UFO photographs unconvincing, due to their poor quality and ease of manipulation. Moreover, the lack of physical evidence and the influence of psychological and cultural factors were concerning. They all failed to meet the high standards required for extraordinary claims under the scientific method.

Would Sagan Have Accepted the Pentagon’s UAP Videos?

What would Carl Sagan have thought of the Pentagon videos, confirming sightings of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena:?

“Gimbal” is one of three US military videos with unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) that have gone through the official US government review process and have been cleared for release.

The Legacy of Sagan’s Public Stance

Regardless of Carl Sagan’s private views, his public stance on UFOs was unequivocal. He dismissed them as either misidentifications or deliberate hoaxes. This position dominated UFO discourse for decades. Moreover, it continues to influence the field, where the default approach among many researchers remains the systematic debunking of sightings—often without thorough evaluation.

This mindset, reinforced by ‘Sagan’s Paradox’ and his famous dictum ‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,’ gave rise to a peculiar scientific orthodoxy. While the existence of extraterrestrial life is deemed plausible, any connection between UFOs and alien intelligence is treated as inherently implausible. This conclusion is enforced rather than investigated.

Sagan was convinced that given the number of stars in the universe—”billions and billions” as he used to say—the chances are very high that highly developed civilizations must exist. He simply doubted that emissaries from these civilizations had a habit of appearing at distant farms. He also doubted their emergence above Uncle Fritz’s garden, as popular reports often claimed.

Speaking of the back garden

UFO sighting by Dennis & Mandy. The object was seen within just a few meters from the backyard of the authors house. The author didn’t see this UFO himself. What he and his wife did notice at night was a strange “hum”, that persisted for long periods of time.

Sound of the “hum”.

The sound and, for instance, the UFO pictured here, remained in place for over 20 minutes. Planes don’t remain stationary for such extended periods of time.

“Erich” marks the location of the author’s house. “Dennis and Mandy” witnessed the UAP sighting—initially unknown to the author. He later interviewed them in person because he suspected he was being pranked.

Carl Sagan’s Alleged Private Beliefs on UFOs: An Examination

“Renowned astronomer and astrophysicist Dr. Carl Sagan revealed to Dr. J. Allen Hynek that he believed UFOs were real. However, he avoided any public statements to prevent the loss of academic research funding.“

This allegation suggests a divergence between Sagan’s public skepticism and his private views.

Paola Harris’s Account: Sagan’s Alleged Admission

Investigative journalist Paola Leopizzi-Harris met astronomer, professor, and UFO researcher J. Allen Hynek in 1978 at CUFOS, the Center for UFO Studies. Upon learning Harris was Italian-American, Dr. Allen Hynek enlisted her for translation work. Moreover, she was his assistant in UFO investigations. Their collaboration occurred mainly from 1980 to 1986. This association provided her with significant exposure to UFO research and key individuals involved in the subject.

According to Paola Harris :

“My recollection is that Hynek said it was backstage at one of the many Johnny Carson Tonight shows Sagan did. He basically said (to Hynek) in 1984, ‘I know UFOs are real, but I would not risk my research funding, as you do, to talk openly about them in public.’ ”
Paola Leopizzi-Harris

This quote has been verified by Paola Leopizzi-Harris.

Another correspondent, Bryce Zabel, said Sagan had to downplay his passionate belief in extraterrestrials. This was in order to avoid being written off as a crank—a cool crank but a crank nonetheless: “The truth of the matter, to me, is that he felt giving any quarter on the UFO issue could kill his career.”

Debating UFOs with Carl Sagan
Early in Bryce Zabel’s TV career, he debated UFO reality with Carl in a PBS parking lot after the Voyager II Saturn encounter.
The UFOs Carl Sagan Was Convinced Of But Couldn’t Talk About
Writer Bryce Zabel recalls a dispute with Sagan on the topic in a parking lot 40 years ago, during the Voyager 2 flyby — which changed Zabel’s career.

DEEP DIVE

The following is a fact check of this anecdote:
Dr. J. Allen Hynek once remarked about Carl Sagan: “I knew Carl Sagan. We had lunch one day and he said that UFOs were bunk. I asked him his thoughts on a multitude of cases and he said, ‘don’t know anything about it”. Then I said, ‘Carl, you know we scientists are not supposed to comment on anything we haven’t sufficiently studied and he said, ‘yes, I know, but I don’t have the time’.
True or false?

Hynek vs. Sagan: UFOs, Science, and the Battle for Belief

Reference:
UFO’s: A Scientific Debate, Papers presented at a symposium sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held in Boston on Dec. 26-27, 1969, Pages 265 – 275, https://archive.org/details/ufosscientificde0000unse

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 5: Cosmos Eating Space Probes and Sagan’s Response

SELF-REPLICATING PROBES

In the context of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Search, in 1980 the mathematical physicist and cosmologist Frank J. Tipler published a paper, “Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist.”

Reference: Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist, Tipler, F. J.

Tipler sought a universal principle to explain the Fermi Paradox: the apparent absence of extraterrestrial beings on Earth. He contended that if extraterrestrial intelligent beings existed, then their manifestations would be obvious. Conversely, since there is no evidence of their presence, they do not exist.

Von Neumann Probes

Frank Tipler argued that if any extraterrestrial civilization ever built self-replicating von Neumann starprobes, those probes would grow exponentially. They would fill the galaxy in a few million years. Since we don’t see them here, Tipler concluded there are no other intelligent civilizations.

  • Tipler assumed each probe would land on a new world and make just one or a few copies before moving on. However, he had no reason to limit its reproduction so drastically.

  • Even if each probe were only 10 grams and doubled once per decade, in about 150 generations we’d have the mass of an entire galaxy. This conversion to machines would be on the order of 1 followed by 54 zeros grams (1 quindecillion tons). Moreover, this transformation would occur in less than 15 million years.

  • Because we see no evidence of such galaxy-eating machines anywhere, Tipler said no one else ever invented them. Therefore, no one else is out there.

SAGAN’S RESPONSE

Carl Sagan pondered the arithmetic of Tipler’s solipsist argument. His response is a classic in the realm of science and philosophy. He draws attention to the limitations of our current knowledge and the vastness of the universe. By stating, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Sagan cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t know.

Sagan and William I. Newman challenged Tipler’s assumptions and conclusions, proposing a more realistic colonization model based on population growth and organization. This alternative model estimates a galaxy-crossing time of approximately one billion years, significantly longer than Tipler’s few million years.

Sagan further suggests that self-replicating probes are subject to evolutionary divergence, imposing unacceptable risks to altruistic extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI). The ETI only communicate with other ETI through signals. This argument assumes that self-replicating machines are essentially uncontrollable because they must evolve.

Sagan and Newman also propose that the emergence of powerful weapons of mass destruction may impose a universal brake on unchecked expansion. This could potentially limit the spread of advanced civilizations. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of experimentation in resolving the Fermi Paradox. Systematic searches using radio telescopes and other tools are necessary to settle the question of whether we are alone in the universe.

Reference: The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Sagan / Newman 1983QJRAS..24..113S Page 113

Terrestrial Shortsightedness

Imagine New York in 1894, its streets choked with the clatter of hooves. Its futurists were drowned in calculations of manure. They predicted that by 1944 New York would drown in horse manure.

The futurists only saw linearity: more carriages, more waste, an apocalypse of filth. However, they could not fathom the silent revolution already stirring—the internal combustion engine, the horseless carriage—a paradigm shift that would render their equations relics.

So too might we falter when envisioning the starfarers of tomorrow. To assume interstellar travel or contact must devour suns is to chain possibility to the physics of this moment. What of the technologies unimagined? The spacetime shortcuts, the dark energy harnessed, the self-replicating probes born of nanoengineering? The cosmos whispers of mysteries we have yet to decode.

Carl Sagan may have cautioned Tipler that his reasoning could mirror that of the horse-cart prophets. One may fail to see beyond the boundaries of the known. The universe is not merely a puzzle to solve with present tools. It is also a frontier that reshapes the solver. As we once tamed fire and split the atom, so too might we one day dance with the fabric of spacetime itself. The answer to the Fermi paradox may not lie in the scarcity of civilizations. It may lie in the humility of our assumptions.

After all, the stars are not merely endpoints. They are teachers. Their greatest lesson might be this: To traverse the light-years, we must first learn to think in ways as boundless as the dark between galaxies.

Reference: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were drowning in horse manure. The London Times predicted in 1894 that in 50 years’ time, every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.
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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 4: Stoned Genius

In 1971 Dr. Sagan, writing under the pseudonym “Mr. X” described his history of marijuana use.

As the paragon of reasoned, evidence-based science, what could have possibly prompted Carl Sagan to light up a joint? He argued that marijuana can be a powerful tool for facilitating mind expansion. When he was high, he had breakthroughs in knowledge and moments of true insight, according to his experience.

He vigorously defended the validity of these pot-fueled realizations:

“There is a myth about such highs: the user has an illusion of great insight, but it does not survive scrutiny in the morning. I am convinced that this is an error and that the devastating insights achieved when high are real insights; the main problem is putting these insights in a form acceptable to the quite different self that we are when we’re down the next day. Some of the hardest work I’ve ever done has been to put such insights down on tape or in writing. The problem is that ten even more interesting ideas or images have to be lost in the effort of recording one.”

Carl Sagan as Mr. X in “Marijuana Reconsidered”, 1971, pg 113-114

Reference: Psychiatrist Grinspoon Smoked Pot with Sagan—A Lot
Dr. Lester Grinspoon, associate professor emeritus of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, recalls exploring the cosmos with a little help from cannabis, and his best friend Carl Sagan.

Three years after Sagan’s death, Dr. Grinspoon decided to posthumously reveal Mr. X’s identity. His choice honored the world-famous scientist’s often-expressed wish to help end marijuana prohibition.

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 3: Skepticism and Egyptian Mysticism

UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar

Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)

Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.

Further reading: UFO Truth: Witnesses, Speak Out!
Witnesses should be allowed to stay anonymous, but non-anonymous testimony should be prioritized.

Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals

Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.

Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.

The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.

THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism

Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.

Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.

And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.

The symbol of the Sphinx Head Tomb Secret Society, Cornell University

What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.

Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.

Reference: Lessons of Immortality and Mortality From My Father, Carl Sagan

What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.

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The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 2: Extraordinary Claims and the Bermuda Triangle

“Extraordinary?” Sagan’s 1977 Standard Stuns UFO Dreamers

In 1977, when the film “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” was released, Washington Post readers first heard of the “Sagan Standard”: that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.“

Carl Sagan uttered this aphorism in relation to the first film scene. In the scene, planes were found in the Sahara which years earlier disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle. The notion of extraordinary claims was central to Sagan’s skepticism about extraterrestrial causes.

“There is no evidence that lights in the sky or the disappearance of ships or planes are due to extraterrestrial interference (in the Bermuda Triangle)”, Sagan said.

Reference: Second View, Sagan on ‘Encounters’
NEW YORK — Carl Sagan, the 43-year-old glamor boy of astronomy, is hunched down in the fifth row of the Ziegfeld Theater on West 54th Street, waiting for the five o’clock matinee to roll. Whoooooosh! A sandstorm rages across the screen, enveloping viewers in a yellow haze.

Bermuda Triangle Bombshell: Planes, Submarines & Atomic Mystery

Bermuda Triangle, 1986:
Nine years later, in the shadowy depths of the North Atlantic, the Russian nuclear submarine K-219 vanished beneath the waves. It left a chilling mystery in its wake. As the vessel settled silently on the ocean floor—nearly 18,000 feet (5.5 kilometers) below the surface—a more disturbing discovery emerged. The submarine’s full arsenal of nuclear warheads had inexplicably disappeared, raising extraordinary claims about what might have occurred.

Any attempt to retrieve or remove the warheads should have been impossible at such an unfathomable depth. It was beyond the reach of all human technology in 1986. Yet, the weapons had vanished nonetheless, leaving behind only unanswered questions and a silence as deep as the ocean itself.

Official records claim that the catastrophic incident aboard K-219 took place hundreds of miles from the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. This spot was the very location where the lost submarine ultimately came to rest (Wikipedia).

Yet this contradiction is curious, to say the least, inviting extraordinary claims and speculations.

Deep-Sea Riddle: Vanished Russian Nukes Hide Under Triangle

Consult the Marine Gazetteer Map, and you’ll notice a small dot nestled between Miami and Bermuda. This is the location of the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. In other words, it is inside the notorious Bermuda Triangle.

Science moves forward through doubt, evidence, and the enduring patience to pursue both. But in a case like this, extraordinary claims about the vanished nukes cannot help but intrigue those. These claims make people wonder what secrets still lie hidden beneath those mysterious waters.

Location of the sunk Russian nuclear submarine K-219. Until now, no publication has linked it’s sinking and the disappearance of it’s nuclear arsenal to the presence of the Bermuda Triangle.

Cosmos Mania: Sagan Turns the Universe into Prime-Time TV

In 1980 the name Sagan finally became a household name when Carl presented his extraordinarily successful TV series “Cosmos.”

The series covered topics ranging from the origin of life to a perspective of our place in the universe.

The Sagan Standard, first phrased in the Washington Post article from December 1977, that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” became the mantra of the series. Carl claimed that nearly every UFO sighting is based on optical illusions and misinterpretations.

Carl Sagan wrote regarding UFO claims:

“When confronted with a claim for which there is no compelling evidence, we should reserve judgment. I know of no evidence for visits to Earth by beings from other worlds.”

  • – Carl Sagan
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Cosmic Scouts: Michio Kaku on UFOs as Probes from Type III Civilizations

Physicist Michio Kaku has publicly discussed the theoretical capabilities of extraterrestrial civilizations, particularly in the context of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs or UFOs). He argues that if such objects are indeed spacecraft from non-human intelligences capable of interstellar or intergalactic travel, they would likely originate from a highly advanced civilization, potentially a Type III on the Kardashev scale, possessing the ability to manipulate space and time.

The Challenge of Cosmic Distances

Kaku emphasizes the immense distances separating stars and galaxies, which render travel by conventional means (like current human rocket technology) impractical for interstellar voyages, requiring tens of thousands of years to reach even the nearest stars. For intergalactic travel, the distances are millions of times greater.

Could UAPs be the scout spacecraft of a galactic civilization?

Kardashev Type III
UAPs: are they from Kardashev Type III civilizations?

To answer that, we must journey into the realm of theoretical physics and cosmic evolution.
Imagine beings who have mastered energies on a scale that dwarfs our planetary concerns. That is the domain of a Kardashev Type III civilization.

The Kardashev Scale (after Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev) classifies civilizations by their energy consumption:

  • A Type 0 civilization, like our own, derives its energy from dead plants and animals (oil, coal) and is still subject to the whims of nature. We are, in cosmic terms, infants.
  • Type I civilization has mastered planetary energy. They can control the weather, harness the power of their entire planet, and utilize all the sunlight that strikes its surface. Think of Buck Rogers.
  • Type II civilization has graduated to stellar power. They can consume the entire energy output of their parent star. Dyson spheres, theoretical megastructures that could encompass a star, are a hallmark of such a civilization. Star Trek’s Federation is beginning to approach this level.
  • Then, there’s Type III: a galactic civilization. They command the power of an entire galaxy, perhaps harnessing the energy of billions of stars, maybe even manipulating black holes. Think of “Star Wars” or the ancient builders in many science fiction sagas.

Intergalactic travel isn’t a matter of building a bigger rocket. To traverse millions of light-years in any reasonable timeframe, you must manipulate space-time itself—harnessing Planck-scale energies to open wormholes or drive a warp bubble.

Who could wield such power?

Type I powers a planet.
Type II powers a solar system.
Only a Type III civilization can treat a galaxy as its playground—warping, folding, or tunneling through space-time at will.

So, if these UFOs are indeed piloted by beings from another world, and if they demonstrate capabilities like instantaneous acceleration, right-angle turns at hypersonic speeds, and, crucially, the ability to traverse interstellar or even intergalactic distances, then we are not dealing with a civilization just a few centuries ahead of us. The sheer energy requirements and the physics involved point to something far grander.

Such beings would likely be the product of a Type III civilization. They would have long ago mastered the fundamental forces, unlocked secrets of space-time that we are only just beginning to ponder, and command energies that could light up (or extinguish) stars.

While we must always approach these UAP reports with scientific rigor and skepticism, it’s an intriguing thought experiment. If they are real, and not of this Earth, then the beings behind them are not just visitors from another star; they are potentially emissaries from a civilization so advanced, they are practically gods in their ability to manipulate the cosmos.

It opens up the tantalizing, and perhaps humbling, possibility that we are but a tiny part of a much larger, far more advanced, cosmic neighborhood. The universe, it seems, is far more fascinating than we ever imagined.

FACT CHECK

The above text aligns with Dr. Michio Kaku’s public statements on:

  1. The Kardashev Scale and Civilizational Classification
  2. Type III civilizations’ capacity for intergalactic travel
  3. The physics of space-time manipulation (Planck energy, wormholes, warp drives)
  4. Recent UAP commentary (extreme maneuvers in Navy pilot footage, implied G-forces, trans-medium capabilities)

1. On the Kardashev Scale and Classification of Civilizations

Dr. Kaku frequently uses the Kardashev Scale as a framework to discuss the potential advancement of civilizations based on their energy consumption. He describes:

• Type 0 (like ours, reliant on fossil fuels)
• Type I (planetary; controlling weather and planetary energy)
• Type II (stellar; harnessing the entire output of their star, e.g. via a Dyson sphere)
• Type III (galactic; commanding the energy of an entire galaxy)

2. On Type III Civilizations and Intergalactic Travel

The article posits that intergalactic travel requires mastering energies on a galactic scale—a feat of a Type III civilization. Dr. Kaku agrees, suggesting such a civilization would have colonized its galaxy and harnessed the energy of billions of stars. He explicitly links Type III civilizations with space-time manipulation technologies (wormholes, warp drives).

3. On Advanced Technology and Manipulating Space-Time

The article notes that traversing intergalactic distances necessitates manipulating the fabric of space and time, including harnessing Planck energy. Dr. Kaku explains that while Special Relativity forbids FTL locally, General Relativity allows global warping of space-time. He emphasizes that only the colossal energies of a Type III civilization could achieve such feats.

4. On UFOs/UAPs and Highly Advanced Civilizations

The article speculates that if UAPs are extraterrestrial and exhibit capabilities beyond our physics, they might originate from Type III civilizations. Dr. Kaku has spoken increasingly about UAPs, noting new Navy pilot footage and other evidence. He points out that UAP characteristics (Mach 5–20 speeds, rapid accel­eration, hundreds of Gs, transmedium travel) imply technologies far beyond ours. He cautions that these beings could be thousands or millions of years more advanced, placing them in the realm of Type III.

References:

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Unexplained Starlight Pulses: Is Advanced Tech Operating Covertly in Our Cosmic Neighborhood?

For decades, humanity has peered into the vast darkness between the stars, dreaming of the moment we might detect a sign of intelligence beyond our own. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has long focused on distant radio whispers or powerful laser flashes, while intriguingly, starlight pulses might reveal clues right in our cosmic backyard. But what if the most profound evidence isn’t coming from light-years away? Could it be from our very own cosmic backyard? Recent, startling discoveries from a dedicated optical observatory in Big Bear, California, are forcing us to confront this very question.

In May 2023, retired NASA scientist Richard Stanton, working in Big Bear, California, discovered an unexplained “pulsing” signal from a Sun-like star, HD 89389, in the Ursa Major (Great Bear) constellation. This star is approximately 100 light-years away. The signal was described as two identical and fast pulses occurring 4.4 seconds apart. It was published in the Acta Astronautica scientific journal.

Stanton noted that these pulses were unlike any other signals he’d detected during his 1,500 hours of searching. The signal’s unique pattern has left scientists puzzled. This pattern, consisting of a “brighter-fainter-brighter” sequence, is intriguing to researchers.

“We don’t know what kind of object could produce these pulses or how far away it is. We don’t know if the two-pulse signal is produced by something passing between us and the star or if it is generated by something that modulates the star’s light without moving across the field. Until we learn more, we can’t even say whether or not extraterrestrials are involved!“
– Richard Stanton

Stanton has unveiled a truly perplexing phenomenon: pairs of incredibly fast, identical pulses of starlight. Imagine a star’s brightness undergoing a sudden, dramatic dance. There’s a rapid surge, then a sharp dip, followed by an equally swift return to its original intensity.

This entire sequence unfolds in mere milliseconds. After a brief pause of a few seconds, the exact same intricate pattern repeats. This occurs with precision that defies natural explanation.

Cosmic Code: Unraveling the Twin Pulses

The first captivating instance came from the star HD89389. The near-perfect replication of the “fine-structure” within each pulse wasn’t just intriguing; it screamed of a deliberate, non-random event. Even more chillingly, a deep dive into historical data uncovered an identical pair of pulses from HD217014. This occurred four years prior. This earlier event had been casually dismissed as “birds” – an innocuous explanation that now seems inadequate for such a profound celestial signature.

Not Just Birds: A Galactic Mystery

The implications are staggering. The sheer speed of these light changes immediately tells us one crucial thing: the source cannot be the distant star itself. No known stellar process could cause such rapid, precise fluctuations. This realization narrows the field dramatically. It places the origin of these mysterious flashes much closer to home, likely within our own solar system.

Close Encounter? Tracing the Origin

So, if not the stars, then what? While natural phenomena like unusual atmospheric disturbances or even binary asteroid systems are considered, the precision and repeatable nature of these pulses push scientists towards a more audacious hypothesis. They suspect edge diffraction, a well-understood optical effect. It describes how light bends and creates distinct patterns when passing by a sharp edge. The specific “bipolar” shape of these observed pulses – the characteristic increase, decrease, and subsequent increase in brightness – bears an uncanny resemblance to diffraction patterns expected if starlight interacts with edges of a nearby, opaque object.

Diffraction’s Clue: The Shadow of Something Else

Think of it this way: a previously unknown object, possibly a thin, flat structure or even a ring, momentarily crosses our line of sight to a distant star. As the star’s light skims past one edge, it creates the first pulse. When it passes the other edge, the second identical pulse is generated.

Eyes Wide Open: The Hunt for Hidden Objects

This theory, while still under investigation, ignites a firestorm of possibilities. If these are indeed diffraction patterns, it implies an object’s existence, possibly within our solar system, that is causing these obscurations. What kind of object? And more importantly, who or what created it?

A single telescope, no matter how powerful, can only offer limited clues. It can detect these fascinating anomalies. However, it can’t definitively tell us the object’s precise distance, speed, or true nature. That’s where the future of this extraordinary search comes into play.

The urgent call from the scientific community is for the development of Optical Telescope Arrays (OTAs). Imagine a network of precisely synchronized telescopes, positioned across the Earth. By meticulously measuring the infinitesimal time delays as this object’s shadow sweeps across each individual telescope, scientists could triangulate its position with astonishing accuracy. This method would determine its velocity and perhaps resolve its physical characteristics. This would be a leap from passive observation to active, investigative astronomy.

Beyond the Stars: ETI in Our Backyard?

And here, at the precipice of this discovery, lies the most profound question. If these pulses are confirmed to be caused by an object in our solar system, and if its trajectory suggests it’s not a natural body – what then? Could it be a long-lost piece of cosmic debris or an anomalous natural formation? Or, the thought that sends shivers through us, could this be a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence? Perhaps the ultimate “SETI signal” isn’t a deliberate message beamed across the galaxy. Could it be the unavoidable, accidental, signature of advanced technology operating in our celestial neighborhood?

The Ultimate Question: Are We Witnessing Alien Tech?

The universe continues to surprise us, challenging our assumptions and pushing the boundaries of what we believe possible. These inexplicable starlight flashes are more than just an astronomical curiosity; indeed, they are a cosmic riddle. It could, just possibly, hold the key to answering humanity’s most enduring question: Are we truly alone? The echoes from the void are growing clearer. The potential for a paradigm-shifting discovery has never been more tangible.

Reference:

Unexplained starlight pulses found in optical SETI searches, Richard H. Stanton
Acta Astronautica, Volume 233, August 2025, Pages 302-314
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576525002449?via%3Dihub

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New UFO Study Examines Unusual Flight Characteristics in Navy’s 2015 Gimbal UAP Sighting

A study by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff analyzes the Gimbal UAP video, a 34-second infrared clip recorded by a U.S. Navy F/A-18F jet in 2015. It shows an unidentified object (UAP) moving erratically—stopping, rotating mid-air, and reversing direction instantly—with no visible wings or exhaust.

Key Observations from Pilots:

  1. The object was close (within 6–10 nautical miles).
  2. It suddenly stopped and reversed course without a turning arc—a maneuver impossible for conventional aircraft.
  3. It was part of a group of 4–6 other unknown objects moving against strong winds.

What the Study Did:

Using data from the jet’s targeting system (ATFLIR) and radar, researchers reconstructed the flight path for the UAP and compared it to the pilots testimony.

At the distance reported by the pilots (6-8 nautical miles), the object’s movements matched eyewitness accounts:

  • It slowed down from ~300 knots to near-zero (high speed).
  • Then made a sharp “vertical U-turn” (unlike any known aircraft).
  • No wings or exhaust plumes (like a normal jet) were visible at this range during this maneuver.

Alternative Theory

Some argue the object might just be camera glare from a distant jet’s exhaust (30+ miles away) and that the “rotation” was a sensor glitch. But this doesn’t explain:

  • The pilots’ data showing instant direction changes.
  • Why the object matched the jet’s movements so closely.

Why Does This Matter?

The study doesn’t prove what the object was, but its movements defy normal aerodynamics. The researchers want aviation experts to take a closer look—because if this wasn’t a drone, jet, or camera trick, what was it?

If the object described in the text was indeed a UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) in the sense of an extraterrestrial or unknown advanced craft, it would have significant implications.

What if it was a UFO?

  • It would mean a technology far beyond our own exists: The object pulled off “impossible maneuvers no known aircraft can do,” such as suddenly stopping mid-air, spinning 90 degrees, reversing course instantly, and making sharp, physics-defying U-turns without slowing down. It had “no wings, no exhaust, no explanation” for its propulsion. This would indicate a mastery of physics and engineering that currently eludes human understanding.
  • It would validate the pilots’ observations and radar data: The “fighter jets radar locked onto the UFO,” and a “new study crunched the numbers and found at that range the UFO’s movements match exactly what the pilots described.” This would confirm the reliability of these highly trained observers and sophisticated detection systems in identifying something truly anomalous.
  • It would challenge conventional explanations: Skeptics’ claims of “camera glare from a distant jet” would be insufficient to explain the radar evidence and the detailed pilot testimonies. The text explicitly states these explanations don’t hold up.
  • The burden of proof would indeed shift, as Michio Kaku suggests: If such an object is confirmed, it would no longer be on individuals to prove they saw something extraordinary. Instead, military and scientific institutions would face immense pressure to explain what these objects are, where they come from, and what their intentions might be. The question “what was it?” would become a central focus of investigation.

In essence, if it were a UFO, it would open up a new era of scientific inquiry, reshape our understanding of our place in the universe, and potentially have profound societal and technological impacts. The mystery surrounding these “mystery craft flying in formation” would move from the realm of speculation to urgent reality.

What is our place in the universe?

Bottom Line

The Gimbal UAP moves in ways that don’t match any known aircraft, making it a genuine mystery. The study doesn’t solve it but shows why more research is needed.

For the full math and visuals, see the original paper.

Based on: “Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAP, by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff”,

Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 Gimbal UAP

and the Newsweek article “The Truth About UFOs with Michio Kaku”:

The truth about UFOs with Michio Kaku
Aliens could theoretically “boil space and hop right through” in order to visit Earth from faraway stars.