The Sagan Paradox Chapter 9: GOLDILOCKS IN OUR COSMIC NEIGHBORHOOD

The article moves from the general historical context of SETI to a specific, modern candidate for life, then to a mysterious signal from that candidate, critiquing the scientific response to potential extraterrestrial signals, presenting an alternative theory for the signal, and finally broadening the discussion to the overall limitations of the SETI methodology.

A Sagan-Sized Question

For decades, the search for extraterrestrial life was haunted by a daunting sense of scale. In a 1969 lecture that laid the foundation for modern UFO skepticism, Carl Sagan imagined our cosmic neighbors searching for us by a random principle: sending a spaceship to any old star and simply hoping for the best. More often than not, he assumed, they would find nothing. The universe was a colossal haystack, and intelligent life was a single, lonely needle.

It is a triumph of modern astronomy that this picture has been completely overturned. Today, we know of promising candidates for life-bearing planets right in our cosmic backyard. The proverbial haystack, it turns out, might just be a needle factory.

Proxima b’s orbit is in the habitable zone, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be habitable.

From Random Hopes to Targeted Searches

We are no longer searching blindly. Armed not with metal detectors but with powerful telescopes, we can pinpoint the most likely worlds to harbor life. An intelligent civilization on Earth would not send probes randomly into the void; we would send them to these promising targets. And there are many.

In 2016, astronomers discovered one such target: Proxima Centauri b in the Alpha Centauri system: a potentially habitable planet orbiting the closest star to our sun, a mere 4.2 light-years away. While its parent star’s fierce solar winds make surface picnics unlikely, life could theoretically thrive in subterranean shelters.

In an unrealized project, NASA studied in 1987 the possibility of reaching the orbit of Proxima Centauri b within just 100 years at 4.5% the speed of light. This project was named Longshot, and it was about sending an unmanned probe using nuclear propulsion.

If our initial observations of such a world prove inconclusive in the search for life, what would we do? We would do what we are already doing with Mars: we would send probe after probe until we could be certain. Why would an alien intelligence, having discovered a promising blue dot called Earth, be any different? And from a distance, what do our own Martian space probes look like, if not unidentified flying objects?

Human spacecraft approaches Mars, Enlargement of oil on canvas panel for NASA Headquarters. By Don Davis.

A Tantalizing Whisper from Proxima b

In a remarkable coincidence, just as we began to focus on Proxima b in the search for extraterrestrial life, a potential signal emerged from its direction. In April and May of 2019, the Parkes radio telescope in Australia detected a strange, narrow-band radio emission. Dubbed Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1 (BLC1), initially it was classified as a possible sign from an alien civilization.

Parkes Radio Telescope, by Diceman Stephen West, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The signal’s characteristics were puzzling. Its Doppler shift—the change in its frequency—appeared to be the opposite of what would be expected from the planet’s orbit. Curiously, the signal appeared 10 days after a major solar flare from Proxima Centauri, though no link has been established. The primary investigators were two interns, Shane Smith and Sofia Sheikh. They worked cautiously to rule out terrestrial interference.

Some senior researchers did review the results but found nothing of note.


Long Delay

The BLC-1 signal was first reported publicly 1.5 years after its detection, and only because it was leaked to The Guardian newspaper. The public then had to wait another year for the final results. People were puzzled by the secrecy which fueled speculation.

Delays in announcing a discovery—or non-discovery—within SETI and astronomy are standard practice. Data are not released to the public until they have been verified. For instance, when radio stars were first discovered in 1967, it took two years before the discovery was published. The scientists held on to their data until they found what they considered a plausible natural explanation. The supposed Pulsar mechanism remains a mystery to this day.

This delay practice by SETI can give the impression that data are withheld until “natural explanations” have been found; radio-frequency interference (RFI) is one such explanation.

“Ultimately, I think we’ll be able to convince ourselves that BLC-1 is interference.”

– Andrew Siemion, SETI Principal Investigator for Breakthrough Listen

Within the SETI community, Siemion’s statement exemplifies scientific humility and the cautious process necessary to distinguish genuine signals from interference. Outside SETI, analogous statements can be understood as masking underlying biases or reluctance to accept paradigm-shifting discoveries. This highlights how context influences the interpretation of such remarks.


How long did Earth listen for the BLC-1 signal?

Breakthrough Listen reserved 30 hours on the Parkes telescope to observe Proxima Centauri, but the putative signal was detected during only about three of those hours—roughly 10 % of the total observing time.

During the next six months the team logged another 39 hours of follow-up observations. Out of the 4,320 hours in that half-year, just 0.9 % was spent searching for a repeat—about one-tenth of the effort devoted to the original scan.

The question remains: Was a longer campaign warranted? More generally, aren’t extended observing campaigns in radio-astronomical SETI necessary? We cannot presume that extraterrestrial civilizations broadcast continuous signals; those transmissions may be the only ones we ever detect, and even then only by chance.

BLC-1 has underscored that, when practicable, observations of potential technosignatures should be conducted from at least two different observing sites simultaneously. That this wasn’t done in the case of BLC-1 is inexplicable.

What would be the worst case when announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence?

A mass panic? That later investigations prove the discovery to be wrong and it has to be retracted? Thus discrediting the field of SETI? Or that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the Cosmos? Would this discovery temper humankinds worst instincts, such as warfare, to the detriment of despotic rulers?


A “Galactic Communications Grid” and BLC-1

At first glance, detecting a narrowband radio signal (e.g., BLC-1) from Proxima Centauri—the star system next door—seems fantastically unlikely. Astrophysicist Jason T. Wright countered that, from an engineering standpoint, Proxima is exactly where we should expect to find such a transmission.

If a galactic communication network exists, Proxima would be the most likely “last mile” transmitter to the Solar System. Instead of every civilization trying to beam powerful, targeted messages to every other star system they want to contact, they would establish a network of communication nodes or relays.


Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”

Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”
In this scenario, Proxima Centauri—the closest star to our Solar System—serves as the logical “cell tower.” A message intended for our region of space would be routed through the galactic network to the Proxima Centauri system. A transmitter located there would then handle the “last mile” broadcast to the Solar System.

These nodes in the Galactic Communications Grid would need to ping each other regularly. But since radio waves travel at the speed of light, a single ping would take over eight years (accounting for the 4.24-light-year distance and signal processing time). Given this limitation, perhaps there’s another way to communicate with extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI)?

The speed of light is fixed for electromagnetic radio waves—but what about physical objects? And I’m not primarily referring to warp technology, but rather to objects that might already be here.


The Trouble with SETI

ET to SETI: can you hear us now?
ET to SETI: can you hear us now?

 SETI’s foundational premise is that extraterrestrial civilizations would likely be light-years away, not operating stealthily in Earth’s atmosphere. The hundreds of thousands of reported UFO sighting are perceived by SETI as being mostly the product of wishful thinking, misinterpretations and fakes.

Because UAPs/UFOs have no confirmed extraterrestrial link, SETI has no scientific basis for allocating resources to them. Consequently, no scientific efforts are undertaken to attempt contact with UAPs by radio or other signalling methods (e.g., lasers).

To qualify as a genuine ETI radio signal, the signal must come from far away and its detection must be reproducible. Otherwise it risks being classified as interference outright.

Highly directional, sensitive radio telescopes are not suited for close-range communication. For this reason, the Contact Project has suggested involving amateur radio operators (hams), whose omnidirectional antennas could be used in communication attempts with UAPs.

SETI with directional AND omnidirectional antennas, for far-and close-range Rx/Tx searches

Scientific Observational Attempts to Detect UAPs/UFOs

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb has been leading the Galileo Project, one branch of his project is the detection of possible radio emissions from UAPs.

With new observatories online Avi Loeb is challenging the scientific establishment by taking UAPs seriously.

He sensationally declared he’s looking for intelligent life in deep space, blasting: “I’m interested in intelligence in outer space because I don’t find it very often here on Earth!”

The definition of his job is simple. “What is it to be a scientist?” he asks. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s the privilege of being curious.” It is this foundational principle that now drives one of the most ambitious and controversial scientific endeavors of our time: the Galileo Project. In an age of polarized opinion, the project aims to rise above the noise by focusing on a single, unimpeachable authority. “In science,” he declares, “the arbitrator is the physical reality.”

The project, which is now in full swing in the summer of 2025, was born from a frustration with a scientific community he sees as often too quick to dismiss the unknown. The turning point was the baffling 2017 interstellar visitor, ‘Oumuamua. Its strange, flat shape and its acceleration away from the sun without a visible cometary tail led him to suggest it could be an artifact of an alien technology. The backlash was swift. He recalls a colleague, an expert on rocks, confiding that ‘Oumuamua was “so weird I wish it never existed”—a statement project leader Avi Loeb sees as the antithesis of scientific curiosity.

The Mysterious Signal from Proxima Centauri: How Scientists Solved a Cosmic Whodunit

The Discovery That (almost) Fooled Astronomers

In April 2019, astronomers with the Breakthrough Listen project detected something extraordinary: a narrow radio signal at 982 MHz, seemingly emanating from Proxima Centauri, our solar system’s closest stellar neighbor. Dubbed BLC1 (Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1), the signal had all the hallmarks of a technosignature—a potential transmission from an extraterrestrial civilization.

For a brief moment, the world dared to wonder: Had we finally found evidence of alien technology?

But as scientists dug deeper, the truth proved far more mundane—and far more fascinating.

The Case for BLC1 as an Alien Signal

At first glance, BLC1 was the most compelling candidate in the history of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI):

Precise frequency: The signal was laser-sharp, just a few Hertz wide—something natural astrophysical phenomena can’t produce.

Non-zero drift: Its frequency drifted at 0.03 Hz/s, consistent with a transmitter on a planet like Proxima b.

Localized: It appeared only when the telescope pointed at Proxima Centauri, vanishing during off-source scans.

“The signal appears to only show up in our data when we’re looking in the direction of Proxima Centauri, which is exciting,” Ms. Sheikh said.

The Plot Twist: A Cosmic False Alarm

The Breakthrough Listen team subjected BLC1 to relentless scrutiny—and cracks began to appear.

May 2nd 2019, a possible BLC1 redetection: radio dish is pointed at Proxima b

1. The Drift That Didn’t Fit

If BLC1 came from Proxima b, its frequency drift should have shown:

Cyclical variation (rising and falling as the planet rotated).
Orbital signatures (subtle shifts tied to its 11.2-day year).

Instead, the drift was strangely linear—more like a glitching human device than an alien beacon.

2. The RFI Doppelgängers

Then, researchers found dozens of similar signals at frequencies like 712 MHz and 1062 MHz—all mathematically linked to common radio interference (RFI). These “lookalikes” had the same drift behavior but were unmistakably human-made, appearing even when the telescope wasn’t pointed at Proxima.

BLC1 wasn’t a lone anomaly—it was part of a pattern.

3. The Cadence Coincidence

The final clue? BLC1’s timing matched the telescope’s observing schedule.

On-source (30 min): Signal detectable.
Off-source (5 min): Signal too faint to see.

This created an illusion of localization—like a flickering streetlight that only seems to work when you walk by.

The Verdict: A Cosmic Mirage

After a year of analysis, the team concluded: BLC1 was interference, likely from:

Intermodulation: A “ghost” signal created when two radio waves mixed in faulty electronics.

A malfunctioning device (possibly hundreds of miles from the observatory).

Lessons for the Hunt for Alien Life

BLC1’s rise and fall taught scientists three critical lessons:

Single telescopes are vulnerable to false alarms. Future searches need global networks to cross-check signals.

The search is worth it.

For now, Proxima Centauri’s secrets remain hidden. But the hunt continues.

BLC1 wasn’t aliens—but as SETI enters a new era (with projects like the Square Kilometer Array), we’re better prepared than ever to answer humanity’s oldest question: Are we alone?

Primary Research Papers

These two papers were published concurrently and should be read together for a complete understanding of the BLC1 signal, from its detection to its ultimate classification as interference.

  1. A radio technosignature search towards Proxima Centauri resulting in a signal of interest
    • Authors: Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, Sofia Z. Sheikh, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01479-w
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08007
    • Abstract: This paper describes the overall search for technosignatures from Proxima Centauri and the initial detection of the BLC1 signal. It details the characteristics that made BLC1 an intriguing candidate.
  2. Analysis of the Breakthrough Listen signal of interest blc1 with a technosignature verification framework
    • Authors: Sofia Z. Sheikh, Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01508-8
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.06350
    • Abstract: This is the companion paper that provides a deep dive into the analysis of BLC1. It outlines the verification framework used and presents the evidence that led to the conclusion that BLC1 was a product of human-generated radio frequency interference.

Additional Resources from Breakthrough Listen

The Breakthrough Listen initiative has also made a wealth of information about BLC1 available to the public.

  • BLC1 – Breakthrough Listen’s First “Signal of Interest”: This is the main resource page from the Berkeley SETI Research Center, providing summaries, links to the papers, data, and other supplementary materials.
  • Breakthrough Initiatives Press Release: This press release gives a good overview of the findings in an accessible format.

What If We Were About to Make Contact? The Hypothetical Implications of Confirmed Extraterrestrial Intelligence

What could be the worst-case scenario upon announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence? This list is not inclusive.

Scenarios after Human-ETI Contact. This list is not inclusive of all possibilities.

Potential Consequences:

1. Mass Panic:

The crisis of order. Exploitation could surge, with doomsday cults gaining followers and charlatans claiming to be “ambassadors” for the aliens, preying on the fearful.

Economic collapse might occur, as markets could crash due to radical uncertainty following an extraterrestrial discovery. Misinformation would fill the information vacuum, leading to conspiracy theories and fear-mongering, potentially inciting violence and civil unrest.

However, studies of disasters (including the COVID-19 pandemic) suggest that true, sustained mass panic is less common than often assumed.


2. A Retraction: The Crisis of Credibility

What if subsequent investigations prove the discovery to be false, requiring a retraction? This could discredit the entire SETI field.

Such a scenario would be a catastrophic embarrassment. The field already struggles with what some call the “giggle factor,” and being discredited for a generation could severely damage public trust in scientists and science as a whole. Securing funding for future searches might become nearly impossible after a failed extraterrestrial discovery.


3. Humanity Dethroned: The Crisis of Meaning

What if the extraterrestrial discovery implies that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the cosmos?

Religions centered on human exceptionalism could face a fundamental crisis. However, studies on this subject have shown that the impact may be negligible.

Our entire worldview, which places humanity at the center of meaning, could be invalidated. This could lead to profound, species-wide depression, a loss of purpose, and what philosophers term “cosmic despair.” Why strive, create, or even continue if we are but ants on an unremarkable anthill?

(I disagree.)


4. The Optimistic View (The Cosmic Perspective):

Would this discovery temper humankind’s worst instincts, such as warfare, and diminish the power of despotic rulers?

Carl Sagan and others have hoped that knowing we are not alone would foster a “cosmic perspective.” Realizing we are all citizens of a fragile, shared planet in a vast cosmos could make nationalism, racism, and warfare seem petty and childish. Such an extraterrestrial discovery could unite humanity and pose a threat to despotic rulers whose power relies on manufacturing “us vs. them” conflicts.

(I agree.)


5. The Pessimistic View:

A despotic ruler thrives on controlling information and manipulating fear. An alien intelligence could become the ultimate propaganda tool.

A dictator might claim that the aliens pose a demonic threat, justifying crackdowns and military expansion to “protect” the populace.

They could also claim that the aliens have endorsed their rule, creating a new “divine right” to govern after such an extraterrestrial discovery.

The discovery could trigger an unimaginably high-stakes Cold War, where nations fight not for territory or resources but for control of communication channels and any technological secrets the aliens might reveal.


(Well, that’s why we have HAM radio operators and satellite dishes.)

Scientists Now Hunt for ET’s GARBAGE!

You won’t believe the bizarre new way scientists are hunting for aliens! Forget listening for strange signals—the real proof might be in their TRASH! A team of maverick researchers is now searching for “technosignatures,” and their wild ideas are blowing the lid off the search for ET.

Scientists Now Hunt for ET’s GARBAGE!

The Cosmic Archaeologist:

Star astronomer Jason Wright makes the bombshell claim that alien junk—like their old space probes and pollution—could last for BILLIONS of years, making their garbage heap easier to find than the aliens themselves!

The Pollution Detective:

Researcher Jacob Haqq Misra is on the hunt for the ultimate smoking gun: cosmic factory fumes! He wants to find banned industrial chemicals and even signs of massive alien “space farms” in the atmospheres of distant worlds.

The Ocean Hunter:

But it gets weirder! Sofia Sheikh has the most mind-blowing theory yet—she wants to find microplastics in alien oceans! She even dares to ask if advanced ETs could be aquatic creatures who never needed fire and warns we could be looking right at their super-advanced worlds and be too blind to even notice!

https://web.archive.org/web/20220915101427/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/magazine/extraterrestrials-technosignatures.html

PULSAR SHOCKER—SCIENCE’S BIGGEST BLIND SPOT!

Why does Six-Sigma not apply to pulsar theories?

Pulsars have puzzled scientists for over 50 years, and many mysteries remain. Some wonder if these cosmic signals could actually be alien beacons rather than natural objects.

You’ve heard of neutron stars and their eerily precise lighthouse flashes of radio waves. But did you know the world’s leading experts openly admit they still don’t know how—or even why—pulsars pulse? Despite more than five decades of dedicated research since their discovery, fundamental aspects of the mechanisms that govern pulsars remain incompletely understood.

WHAT THEY WON’T TELL YOU

• 50 Years of “Mystery Science”
Pulsars were discovered in 1967 by Jocelyn Bell Burnell.
– The first pulsars were named “LGM” for “Little Green Men”,
because they resembled deliberate intelligent signals from aliens.
The discovery was kept a secret for two years, until a “natural” explanation could be found.
– Yet top reviews concede: “No consensus on how pulsars make coherent radio beams.”
– Even their heavyweight magnetosphere models are “pure speculation,” say the academics.

Jocelyn Bell Burnell discovered Pulsars in 1967
Jocelyn Bell Burnell discovered Pulsars in 1967

• Energy “Conversion” Conundrum
– How does a spinning neutron star turn its spin into light and X-rays?
– Experts shrug: “We don’t know where particles get accelerated… or how.”

• Interior Secrets Locked Tight
– The neutron-star Equation of State? A “well-kept secret,” even on Wikipedia.
– We can’t recreate these ultra-dense conditions on Earth—so we’re flying blind.

THE BIG QUESTION SETI WON’T ASK

If we’re this stumped by “natural” objects, could some pulsars actually be artificial beacons—designed by a super-advanced Kardashev Type III civilization? Imagine harnessing a stars energy to craft perfect, long-range lighthouses! Isn’t this a concept that the Kardashev Scale proposes?

Yet SETI protocols dismiss the idea outright:
• They focus on faint, homely radio signals—never megastructures beaming across the Milky Way.
• They’ve never seriously tested whether pulsar “noise” could be cosmic Morse code.

WHAT IF SOME PULSARS ARE ETI LIGHTHOUSES?

– Perfect timing, colossal power output, pinpoint beams… sounds like engineered tech!
– A K-III society could be “pinging” planets for millennia, and we’ve assumed it’s just physics playing tricks.

CALLING ALL STAR HUNTERS

It’s time to break the dogma. We need to:
1. Re-examine pulsar data for hidden patterns or intentional modulation.
2. Expand SETI’s search to include high-power, pulsed signals.
3. Admit our ignorance—and embrace wild ideas to solve these cosmic riddles.

Until we dare to ask whether pulsars are aliens’ calling cards, we’ll remain stuck in the dark—waiting for E.T. to ring a bell we refused to check. Isn’t it time someone blew the whistle on astrophysics’ biggest oversight?


Scientists on the Limits of Pulsar Knowledge

Beyond the specific unsolved problems within subfields of pulsar research, there are numerous instances where scientists make overarching statements explicitly acknowledging the incomplete state of current knowledge regarding these enigmatic objects.

Several key publications and resources directly state the limitations in our understanding of pulsars:

Beskin, Chernov, Gwinn, & Tchekhovskoy (2015):

In their review “Radio Pulsars,” these authors plainly state, “Almost 50 years after radio pulsars were discovered in 1967, our understanding of these objects remains incomplete.” This is a clear and high-level admission of the persistent gaps in knowledge from experts summarizing the field.

Hankins, Rankin, & Eilek (2009):

The white paper “What is the Physics of Pulsar Radio Emission?” opens with the frank assessment: “Despite much careful theoretical and observational effort, the details of how these rapidly rotating neutron stars radiate are still a mystery.” While focused on radiation, this statement implies broader difficulties in understanding the core processes.

Contopoulos, Kalapotharakos, & Kazanas (2014):

In “A new standard pulsar magnetosphere,” the authors remark, “Though pulsars were discovered almost fifty years ago, they still remain mysterious stellar objects.” This general statement encapsulates the enduring enigmatic nature of pulsars.

NASA on PSR B0943+10:

When discussing the “puzzling pulsar” PSR B0943+10, a NASA resource notes that “astronomers… aren’t sure how the particles get stripped from the surface of the star and accelerated to high energies”. The observation of its inverse radio/X-ray pulsing “reignited debate,” indicating that any prior consensus on such emission behavior was either absent or fragile and that existing models were insufficient.

“Pulsar Electrodynamics: an unsolved problem”:

The very title of a research area or a specific paper can be telling. While there is a paper on this topic, the broader identification of “Pulsar Electrodynamics” as “an unsolved problem” is a direct admission of ongoing challenges. The source itself discusses unresolved issues like “charge starvation” and “current starvation” in electrodynamic models, implying these are areas not fully settled.

The Unknown Equation of State (EoS):

A “Well-Kept Secret”
A critical unknown is the Equation of State (EoS) of matter at these supranuclear densities. The EoS describes the relationship between pressure, density, and temperature, and it dictates the macroscopic properties of the neutron star, such as its radius for a given mass and its maximum possible mass.

Neutron star equation of state, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1387647310000564
Neutron star equation of state, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1387647310000564

Multiple sources unequivocally state the current lack of knowledge. Wikipedia’s entry on Neutron Stars, often reflecting expert consensus, asserts: “The equation of state of neutron stars is not currently known.” The entry elaborates that this uncertainty arises because the extreme densities are impossible to replicate in terrestrial laboratories, and theoretical modeling must incorporate General Relativity as well as complex aspects of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), potential superconductivity, and superfluidity of nuclear matter. Understanding the EoS is described as a “major unsolved problem in fundamental physics.”

This sentiment is strongly echoed in the scientific literature. A 2017 review by Chamel et al., “The physics of the neutron star crust,” notes that while the physics of the outer crust is relatively better understood, “the structure of the matter in neutron star cores and in particular its equation of state remain the well-kept secret of neutron stars”. The inability to definitively determine the EoS means that fundamental parameters, such as the precise upper mass limit for neutron stars before they collapse into black holes (the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff limit), remain uncertain, with theoretical estimates varying.

SIX-SIGMA:

Scientific Theories: When a theory encounters contradictory evidence or fails to explain a new observation, it is not a “defect” in the scientific process. Instead, it signals that the theory may be incomplete, incorrect under certain conditions, or in need of refinement. Such discrepancies are essential for scientific progress, often leading to new hypotheses or even paradigm shifts. This mindset may be exactly what’s needed to advance our understanding of pulsars.

A Visual Approach to Pulsar SETI: Searching for Meaningful Data in Previously Dismissed Signals

Pulsars were too quickly dismissed from SETI. Why? Because there are too many of them? This is a visual representation of one way of searching for meaningful data encoded within their signals:

References:

Are Radio Pulsars Extraterrestrial Communication Beacons?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264785777_Are_Radio_Pulsars_Extraterrestrial_Communication_Beacons

Pulsar Positioning System: A quest for evidence of extraterrestrial engineering
https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.03316

A 4–8 GHz Galactic Center Search for Periodic Technosignatures
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/acccf0

‘Unlike anything we have seen before’: Astronomers discover mysterious object firing strange signals at Earth every 44 minutes, May 28, 2025
https://www.livescience.com/space/unlike-anything-we-have-seen-before-astronomers-discover-mysterious-object-firing-strange-signals-at-earth-every-44-minutes

Chameleon pulsar takes astronomers by surprise, 19 February 2013
https://observatoiredeparis.psl.eu/chameleon-pulsar-takes-astronomers-by-surprise.html

Black hole blazar changes direction and now points its jet towards Earth
An inexplicable change of course
https://ras.ac.uk/news-and-press/research-highlights/galaxy-changes-classification-jet-changes-direction

(FRINGE) Decoding the Message of the Pulsars: Intelligent Communication from the Galaxy
https://www.amazon.com/Decoding-Message-Pulsars-Intelligent-Communication/dp/1591430623

Beskin, V. S. (2018). Radio pulsars. Physics-Uspekhi, 61(7), 655–686.

Hankins, T. H., Rankin, J. M., & Eilek, J. A. (2009). What is the Physics of Pulsar Radio Emission? Astro2010: The Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey, Science White Papers, no. 120.

Contopoulos, I., Kalapotharakos, C., & Kazanas, D. (2014). A new standard pulsar magnetosphere. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 443(1), L45–L49.

NASA. (2013, October 23). NASA’s Chandra and XMM-Newton Find Puzzling Pulsar. NASA Missions.

Petri, J. (2019). Pulsar electrodynamics: an unsolved problem. Journal of Plasma Physics, 85(5), 15850501.

Chamel, N., Fantina, A. F., & Zdunik, J. L. (2017). The physics of the neutron star crust. In The Physics and Astrophysics of Neutron Stars (pp. 57-95). Springer, Cham.

Just A Friendly Hello: Contact Project Proposes a Continuous, Worldwide Omnidirectional Beacon to Engage Nearby Extraterrestrial Visitors

ContactProject.org: Is humanity ready for contact with extraterrestrial intelligence?

ETI is already near Earth, either in the form of drones, UAPs, or UFOs—whatever you prefer to call them. That is the premise of the Contact Project. The project proposal is therefore simple: instead of broadcasting a pinpointed message to a potential civilization far, far away, we can use simple, inexpensive, and widely available omnidirectional antennas to invite communication from objects or phenomena in Earth orbit. Moreover, this effort should not be limited to a short period of time; it should be sustained and undertaken with the broad agreement of people on every continent.

The message in the Contact Project might resemble the following:

“A Beacon in the Galaxy: Updated Arecibo Message for Potential FAST and SETI Projects” https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.04288, by Jonathan H. Jiang, Hanjie Li, Matthew Chong, Qitian Jin, Philip E. Rosen, Xiaoming Jiang, Kristen A. Fahy, Stuart F. Taylor, Zhihui Kong, Jamilah Hah, Zong-Hong Zhu.

A potential ETI is, of course, capable of decoding any human transmission we are already broadcasting, but the point of the Contact Project is to address ETI directly, acknowledge their presence, and actively seek contact.

Demonstrating such openness would prove humankind’s readiness for contact. By doing so, we would not be giving away anything new—such as our position—beyond what we already broadcast. It would simply be a friendly hello, as envisioned by the Contact Project organization.

Flaws in the Dark Forest Game Theory: A Closer Look

“I don’t know why you say goodbye, I say hello.”
The Beatles ‧ 1967

Why Liu Cixin’s Chilling Vision May Exaggerate the Dangers – ​in Space and on Earth

Dark Forest Hypothesis

1. A Tale of Two Dark Forests

Liu Cixin’s award-winning trilogy Remembrance of Earth’s Past (commonly called The Three-Body Problem series) popularized the Dark Forest Hypothesis: in a universe where every civilization fears annihilation and resources appear scarce, the safest strategy is absolute silenceor a pre-emptive strike on anything that betrays its position.

Initial Dark Forest Assumptions (click for full PDF here)

Yet, just as children often overestimate the terrors of a literal dark forest, adults may be overestimating the hazards of its cosmic counterpart. Both fears rest on questionable assumptions about scarcity, detectability, and universal hostility.


2. How Dark Is the Cosmic ForestReally?

2.1 Abundant Resources
Asteroid mining makes most “resource wars” unnecessary.
– Example: NASA’s current Psyche mission targets a metal-rich asteroid whose contents have often been cited – though the estimate is highly speculative – as being worth about $100,000 quadrillion.
– Lower gravity and higher ore purity mean it is far easier to extract metals in space than to invade a habitable planet.

• Science-fiction authors anticipated this logic well before the 1970s, from Garrett P. Serviss (1898) to Isaac Asimov (1953) and Poul Anderson (1963-65).


2.2 Alternative Solutions to the Fermi Paradox

The silence we observe could stem from:
the brevity of civilizations’ effective ‘radio window‘ (50-70 years);
the Sanctuary Hypothesis (ETI nurture developing planets without revealing themselves);
crewed or uncrewed craft-based exploration rather than radio beacons (compare UAP/UFO debate). These sightings challenge the premise of universal silence.

ABC 7 NEWS, December 2024

2.3 Humanity Has Already Broadcast

Humankind has been broadcasting TV and radio signals since the 1930s. These signals can be received hundreds of light-years away. This may have triggered ETs curiosity.

Then, between 1945 and 1961, Earth detonated more than 2,000 nuclear devices. Each blast produced an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strong enough to be detected light-years away.

If an advanced civilization had been listening to early broadcasts of the Olympics, for instance, they’d have been surprised to see Earth suddenly erupting in artificial, high-energy flashes at irregular intervals.

The most powerful explosion was ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo broadcast message and could have been received anywhere in the Milky Way, which may contain 300–500 million habitable planets.

In effect, we have already shouted our existence into the forest; worrying about a polite radio greeting now is like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The Ostrich Problem: Silence Isn’t Safety

If ETIs detected our radio signature, broadcast or EMP, but hear no follow-up, they might assume:

  • We’re hiding (suspicious).
  • We’re unstable (dangerous).
  • We’re ignorant (vulnerable).

3. Game-Theory Revisions: Three Big “What-Ifs”

Here are some of the big “what ifs” that challenge the whole “hide or attack” idea:

3.1 Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) on a cosmic scale
If retaliation is credibleand especially if the cost of failure is extinction – first strikes lose their appeal, exactly as they did with Cold War nuclear strategy. Think about our own history with nuclear weapons. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is a huge deterrent. What if that applies on a cosmic scale too? Let’s say there’s a certain chance of a successful attack. And, crucially, if an attack fails, the attacking civilization faces a really nasty consequence – let’s call it the disaster of retaliation. We’re talking about something far worse than just wasting resources.

Here’s how that changes the math for choosing to “Attack”:

If one civilization tries to hit another:

There’s a certain chance it pulls it off. The attacker survives, though it still pays the cost of the attack, while the other civilization is wiped out.

But, there’s also a chance the attack completely flops. In that nightmare scenario, the attacker is the one facing the disaster of retaliation (or even total annihilation if the other civilization hits back hard), and the target is still around and really angry.

So, when you consider whether to attack, you have to weigh these probabilities. If the chance of a successful attack is low, or if the disaster of retaliation is utterly catastrophic (like in MAD), then the appeal of attacking first plummets. It might even make more sense to just stay hidden, which totally undermines the “attack first” logic.

Flaws in the Dark Forest game theory

3.2 The Impossibility of Hiding

Sufficiently advanced telescopes detect radio signatures and other technosignatures whether or not we transmit on purpose. Admittedly, humankind has only transmitted purposefully for only a bit over 67 hours in its entire history. But this doesn’t reduce over a century of radio and TV signals that are already out there. Within this 130 light-year bubble (260 light-years across) there exist between 700-1,140 habitable worlds. If stealth is futile, the strategic game reduces to “communicate or attack,” and communication becomes the cheaper, more mature, safer option.

The Dark Forest idea hinges on the ability to stay hidden. But what if detection is inevitable? Imagine super-advanced telescopes that can spot signs of life without anyone broadcasting a thing. In that case, the “Hide” strategy basically becomes the same as “Broadcast” – you’re going to be found either way. The whole benefit of trying to hide just disappears.

If being detected while hiding is as bad as outright annihilation, then:
– If both civilizations hide → annihilation.
– If one hides and one broadcasts → annihilation.
– If one hides and one attacks → annihilation.

This scenario pretty much pulls “Hide” off the table as a viable survival strategy. It forces civilizations into a choice between broadcasting or attacking, since there’s no real hiding place left.

3.3 Civilizational Diversity
Assuming every species is paranoid and violent ignores the probability distribution of motives. If even a modest fraction are cooperative, expected-value calculations tilt toward cautious outreach rather than universal suppression.

“Our ability to reach unity in diversity will be the beauty and the test of our civilization”, Mahatma Gandhi

Perhaps the biggest assumption of the Dark Forest is that every civilization out there is a paranoid, aggressive killer. But is that realistic? We can think about different “types” of players in our cosmic game. What if there’s a certain probability that a civilization is hostile, and also a probability that it’s cooperative?

Now, the overall benefit of broadcasting changes dramatically, depending on who you meet. It’s a blend of the risk of annihilation if you meet a hostile civilization, and the potential benefit of survival and cooperation if you meet a friendly one.

If the probability of encountering a cooperative civilization is high enough, and the benefits of cooperation are truly significant, then suddenly, broadcasting might actually be a better bet than attacking. It opens the door to the idea that some civilizations might actually try to say “hello” rather than “kaboom.”

So, while the Dark Forest is a chilling thought experiment, these added factors suggest the universe might be a bit more complex than just a cosmic shooting gallery.


4. Earth’s Own “Dark Forests”: Fear vs. Fact

U.S. National Parks​millions of annual visits into true wilderness​average roughly 0.11 deaths per 100,000 recreational visits. The leading causes are drownings (20.9%), car accidents (17.3%), medical events (12%), and suicides (12.4%), not wolf packs or bear maulings.

A global study of carnivore attacks from 1950 to 2019 documented 5,440 attacks, with about one in three being fatal. Likewise, tiger attacks in India average 34 deaths per year; direct wildlife fatalities in the United States hover around eight. Our imagination inflates the danger of forests much as it inflates the peril of first contact.

Star Trek: First Contact

In the Star Trek movie “First Contact,” the Dark Forest of the human heart (causing a nuclear Armageddon) proved much more dangerous than the meeting with the Vulcan emissary.


5. Why Would ETIs Attack Us?

Possible motives beyond resources:

  • First-strike paranoia (fear of future competition).
  • Ideological conflict (ethics, expansionism).
  • Scientific curiosity (studying emerging civilizations).

But if aliens wanted resources, they’d mine asteroids, not Earth. (Take that, Zecharia Sitchinyour ancient alien gold-mining slaves theory doesn’t hold up when space is full of purer, easier-to-extract metals.)


6. UAPs & the Pentagon’s Admission: Are They Already Here?

If Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) are extraterrestrial probes:

  • They’ve seen our nukes, satellites, and wars.
  • Silence may look like hostility.
  • controlled message (math, music, science) could be safer than ambiguity.

7. Synthesis: From Paranoia to Policy

  • Accept the beacon we have already lit (Radio and TV bubble, nuclear tests) and
  • Send cautious, non-threatening signals (math, art, science).
  • Study apparent probes (UAPs/UFOs) with scientific rigor, but get out of the denial-loop.
  • Prepare a diplomatic framework​a “UN for exocivilizations” – ​before we need it.
  • Invest in asteroid-mining technology; abundance is the best antidote to resource anxiety.

The universe may contain dangers, but the data​from asteroid economics to wilderness safety statistics – ​suggests we routinely overrate them. Instead of cowering in silence, humanity should engage with the cosmos thoughtfully. We must do so armed with game-theoretic prudence, technological optimism, and a clear appreciation of how rarely the monsters in our dark forests turn out to be real. 

Stop Whispering, Start Strategizing!

The Dark Forest Game Theory Equations (PDF)


References:

National Park Service. (n.d.). Deaths in National Parks. U.S. National Park Service. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/mortality-data.htm

Skylis, M. B. (2024, February 27). Data Reveal How People Die in National Parks. Backpacker. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.backpacker.com/survival/deaths-in-national-parks/

Handwerk, B. (2023, January 31). What 70 Years of Data Says About Where Predators Kill Humans. Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/where-lions-and-tigers-and-wolves-attack-and-kill-humans-180981539

Conover, M. R. (2019). Numbers of Human Fatalities, Injuries, and Illnesses in the United States Due to Wildlife. Human–Wildlife Interactions, 13(2), 12. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1544&context=hwi


APPENDIX: THE THREE BODY PROBLEM in brief

tl;dr

Liu Cixin’s *Remembrance of Earth’s Past* trilogy, commonly known as “The Three-Body Problem” series, is a sweeping hard science fiction epic that explores humanity’s first contact with an alien civilization and the existential threats that follow.


1. The Three-Body Problem (三体):
humanity learns an invasion fleet will arrive in 450 years; physics itself is sabotaged by proton-sized “sophons.”

Initial Setup & The Cultural Revolution:
The story begins in China during the tumultuous Cultural Revolution, where astrophysicist Ye Wenjie witnesses the brutal death of her father. Disillusioned with humanity, she is later recruited to a secret military project called “Red Coast,” a deep-space listening station. There, she discovers a method to amplify radio signals using the sun and, in a moment of profound despair, broadcasts a message into space, essentially inviting alien intervention.

Present Day Mystery:
Decades later, in the early 21st century, a series of mysterious suicides among prominent scientists plagues the world. Detective Shi Qiang (Da Shi) investigates, collaborating with nanotechnologist Wang Miao. Wang becomes entangled with a mysterious online VR game called “Three Body,” which simulates a chaotic planet experiencing extreme climatic shifts due to the gravitational pull of three suns.

The Trisolarans Revealed:
Through the game and his investigation, Wang uncovers a vast conspiracy: the Earth-Trisolaris Organization (ETO), a secret society formed by humans who worship the Trisolarans and desire Earth’s destruction. The Trisolarans are the inhabitants of the chaotic “Three-Body” planet. Their civilization has been repeatedly destroyed by their unpredictable system, leading them to seek a new, stable home – Earth. They are on their way, but their fleet will take approximately 450 years to arrive.

Sophon Blockade:
To prevent humanity from developing technology capable of resisting their invasion, the Trisolarans deploy “sophons” – proton-sized supercomputers that unfold into higher dimensions, act as omnipresent spies, and subtly disrupt fundamental physics research on Earth, creating the illusion that science is failing. The first book ends with humanity aware of the impending invasion but hamstrung by the sophon blockade.


2. The Dark Forest (黑暗森林):
Luo Ji invents cosmic MAD – threatening to broadcast Trisolaris’s coordinatesand forces a temporary peace.

The Crisis Era and Wallfacers: With the Trisolaran invasion fleet on its way and sophons making all human communications transparent to the aliens, humanity enters the “Crisis Era.” To develop secret strategies, the United Nations designates four “Wallfacers” – individuals granted immense resources and autonomy to devise plans that remain entirely within their own minds, impenetrable by sophons.

Luo Ji and Cosmic Sociology:
Among the Wallfacers is the initially reluctant and cynical astrophysicist Luo Ji. Unlike the others, he doesn’t have a clear military or scientific background. He slowly develops the “Dark Forest Hypothesis” (based on insights from Ye Wenjie): the universe is a “dark forest” filled with advanced civilizations, each acting as a silent, paranoid hunter. Any civilization that reveals its location becomes a target for pre-emptive destruction, as there’s no way to guarantee another civilization’s intentions are benign, and rapid technological explosion makes any unknown a potential existential threat.

The Deterrence Era:
Luo Ji’s seemingly bizarre actions as a Wallfacer lead to his plan: he threatens to broadcast the coordinates of the Trisolaran home system to the entire galaxy, a suicidal act that would doom both Trisolaris and Earth (due to Earth’s proximity). This threat, known as “Dark Forest Deterrence,” forces the Trisolarans into an uneasy peace, as they realize Luo Ji can enact mutual annihilation. This ushers in the “Deterrence Era,” a fragile peace enforced by the constant threat of a “Swordholder” (Luo Ji) initiating the broadcast.

The Great Fleet Annihilation:
Humanity flourishes during this era, building powerful space fleets, believing they have achieved parity with the Trisolarans. However, when the first Trisolaran probe (“the Droplet”) finally arrives, it effortlessly annihilates Earth’s entire space armada, revealing the vast technological superiority of the Trisolarans and shattering humanity’s hubris.


3. Death’s End (死神永生):
deterrence fails, higher-dimensional weapons collapse the Solar System, and the protagonists ultimately sacrifice themselves so the universe can “bounce” and begin anew.

New Challenges and the Swordholder:
The Deterrence Era continues, but Luo Ji is aging, and a new “Swordholder” must be chosen. The burden falls upon Cheng Xin, a kind and compassionate aerospace engineer. Her appointment is a calculated move by the Trisolarans, who correctly predict her moral nature will prevent her from activating the deterrence in a crisis. When the Trisolarans test the deterrence by attacking Earth’s broadcast stations, Cheng Xin hesitates, allowing them to take control of Earth.

Humanity’s Flight and Cosmic Revelations:
A few human starships that had escaped the initial Droplet attack (including one that had gone rogue much earlier) manage to broadcast the Trisolaran coordinates, leading to the destruction of the Trisolaran home system by a higher-dimensional alien weapon. Earth, however, is then also targeted by a “Dark Forest” attack.

Dimensional Collapse and Universe’s End:
Humanity faces escalating cosmic threats, including:

Two-Dimensional Attacks:
The ultimate “Dark Forest” weapon, a “photoid,” collapses the Solar System into two dimensions, an irreversible process that kills almost all of humanity.

Light-Speed Travel:
Cheng Xin and a few others escape on a light-speed capable ship. They encounter the former “brain-only” ambassador, Yun Tianming, who sends cryptic fairy tales that contain vital information about higher-dimensional physics and the nature of the universe.

Micro-Universes and The Big Bounce:
The narrative expands to encompass the universe’s ultimate fate. It’s revealed that advanced civilizations, to survive cosmic catastrophes like dimensional collapse, create “mini-universes.” However, the proliferation of these mini-universes is draining mass from the main universe, preventing its “Big Bounce” (a theoretical cyclical collapse and rebirth).

The Final Choice:
Ultimately, Cheng Xin and a few companions, after millennia of wandering the cosmos and witnessing countless cosmic events and the end of the universe itself, are faced with a profound choice: contribute their own remaining mass to the main universe’s rebirth, effectively ceasing to exist, or remain in their isolated mini-universe. They choose to return their mass, hoping to contribute to the cycle of universal renewal.

The trilogy is renowned for its grand scale, complex scientific concepts, and unflinching exploration of humanity’s place in a vast, indifferent, and dangerous cosmos. It presents a grim, yet intellectually stimulating, vision of interstellar survival.

EARTH TO E.T.: WE’VE GONE GHOST!

Earth once blared its presence into space with powerful radio and TV signals—then fell almost silent as we switched to digital and cable. In just a few fleeting decades, our planet’s once-booming “broadcast bubble” shrank to faint whispers, changing Earth’s radio signature. This reshapes our view of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. Discover why that brief broadcast window matters. Is it time for humankind to shift from passive listening (SETI) to actively waving hello to the stars with powerful, deliberate beacons (METI)?

1. Early Radio History and Speculation

Early radio transmissions were generally weak. Therefore, they likely did not penetrate the ionosphere. However, as technology advanced, Earth’s radio signature grew. It marked our planet’s cosmic presence.

In the early years of the twentieth century, there was speculation that Extraterrestrials were trying to contact human beings by radio signals. In 1919, Marconi himself encouraged this speculation, claiming he was receiving strange transmissions resembling Morse code, possibly from outer space.

RKO Radio Pictures Inc., commonly known as RKO, was one of the first film production and distribution companies of Hollywoods Golden Age. RKO eventually expanded its operations to include television broadcasting.

The sound played during the “A Radio Picture” logo from 1929 is Morse code.

From the beginning, their logo featured a transmission tower relaying a Morse code sequence: VVV A RADIO PICTURE VVVV. “VVV” in Morse code means “attention, incoming message”. “VVVV” may mean: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus “The Force of Truth Comes Alive”

2. The Rise of Detectable Signals

By 1931, about 25 TV stations in the U.S. were broadcasting television. And those who worry about Carl Sagan’s novel “Contact”: Germany began TV broadcasting in 1935. Any aliens watching Hitler speak in 1936 may have been more excited by Dolores Del Rio, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire and King Kong. (Picture: The special effects crew behind the set of “A Radio Picture” in 1929.)

The “Golden Age of Radio” and the subsequent rise of analog television broadcasting in the mid-20th century marked the first substantial contribution towards Earth’s technosignature. The total estimated radio power escaping into space reached tens to hundreds of megawatts by the 1970s. Powerful omnidirectional, analog signals characterized this period. This created an easily detectable “radio bubble” around Earth.

Radio power from TV signals excaping into space, reference: A-Megawatt-Analysis-of-Anthropogenic-Emissions-into-Outer-Space-1900-2025.pdf (PDF 1)

3. Earth as a Cosmic Mirror

In the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Earth’s radio emissions serve as a “cosmic mirror,” offering a tangible reference for the kinds of signals a distant, technologically advanced civilization might transmit—signals that, in turn, we might hypothetically detect.

4. The Decline of Broad Leakage

TV stations are growing, but their space-bound signal leakage is shrinking as they abandon over-the-air broadcasts. Our peak broad signal leakage—key to the Drake Equation—began falling as focused, less-leaky communication technologies emerged. This transition includes:

  • Satellite Communications: Becoming widespread from the 1970s and 1980s onwards, satellite transmissions are generally directed point-to-point, reducing broad leakage.
  • Cable Television and Fiber Optics: The increasing use of cable TV (reducing over-the-air television broadcasts) and later, fiber optic cables for a vast amount of data transmission. The internet significantly cut down on the amount of radio frequency energy escaping into space. This shift became more pronounced from the late 20th century into the 21st century.
  • Digital Transmissions: Analog broadcasts, which were once more easily detected, are being replaced by digital signals. These digital signals are often more compressed and less likely to leak into space, contributing to Earth becoming “radio quiet” in terms of traditional broadcast leakage.

5. A Short Critique of the Drake Equation’s “L” Parameter

The Drake equation speculates on alien civilizations. In Drake’s original formulation, people often interpret “L” as the total lifespan of a technological civilization.

The Drake Equation, Image © https://sciencenotes.org, Anne Helmenstine 

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals.

Earth’s broad radio leakage lasted roughly from the 1930s until the 1980s–90s.
Thus, our planet broadcast Drake-equation-style signals for only about 40–60 years.
Then we switched to spread-spectrum digital, satellite, cable, and internet communications. Now only random radar pings and digital blips leak into space, quickly blending into cosmic background noise (CMB).

A young Carl Sagan explains the Drake equation

Although the Drake equation was a playful practice in the last millennium, by its own metric humankind would no longer exist, because we don’t release significant radio leakage anymore. Hence, the Drake equation is somewhat obsolete. If Earth civilization is a typical technological civilization, then we can expect other civilizations to leave a similar footprint of “L”—about fifty years. That leaves almost no time for any astronomer to detect a signal.

Ever wondered about the Fermi paradox and why we hear nothing of our cosmic neighbors in the radio spectrum? Here is one possible explanation:

We are now almost radio silent in the cosmos!

But because our “L” was only a mean 50 years, that doesn’t mean that we are extinct! It’s just that we have upgraded our communication system. This explains why the focus of SETI is shifting, away from radio signals, towards bio signatures and other technosignatures, not just radiowaves.

SETI shifts away from radio siganls

The “L” (Longevity) variable in the Drake Equation is thus not a simple constant even for a single civilization.

Actually, trying to detect interstellar Extraterrestrial civilizations by radio-signatures is a futile endeavour: it’s like scrolling through static on an old TV and hoping to catch an intergalactic episode of I Love Lucy that’s been bouncing around space for a billion years. No advanced technological civilization would be using radiowaves travelling at a mere 300000 km/sec for interstellar communication. That would be like sending smoke signals across the ocean. The only alien radiowaves we can ever hope to receive are leaked planetary signals and possibly navigational beacons.

Cosmic navigational beacons?

6. Analysis of Earth’s Current Radio Signature

The latest study on Earth’s radiosignature is from Sofia Z. Sheikh et al 2025 AJ 169 118: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

Sheikh calculated the detectability of four types of radio emissions from Earth. One conclusion was that an observer can detect planetary radar (Arecibo message from 1975) from the greatest distance. This graphic exemplifies this:

For simplification, I have translated the graph from Sheikh’s study. Labels are written out and “AU” are converted into light-years and kilometers.

Sheikh overlooks that the Arecibo radar message was highly directional—only detectable along its precisely aimed, narrow path.

The Arecibo Message

The “Arecibo message” from 1974 lasted only 168 seconds. Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and the other organizers of the boadcast did make it clear that the message was intended not as a genuine attempt to contact extraterrestrials, but as a symbolic demonstration of human technological capability.

The Arecibo telescope in December 2021. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Any serious attempt at communication with ETI would have required using Arecibo to send continuous signals into space, not just for three minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arecibo_message

Arecibo telescope after its collapse (December 2021). Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Altogether, humankind sent two dozen messages intended for an extraterrestrial audience into space from different telescopes. The total combined efforts in all of history to contact Extraterrestrial civilizations amounted to a measly 62.7 hours of transmissions. Not even three days. That is almost nothing in the billions of years of history of the universe, or life on Earth.
Ref.: Major METI transmissions (PDF 2)

The Arecibo message, with its directional 20 trillion watts (450 kw actual), was sent to the globular cluster M13, 25,000 light-years away. But calculations indicate the signal only penetrates about 12 000 light-years before the interstellar medium (ISM) absorbs it. Pity—what a clever demonstration of human technological prowess that was.

7. Breakdown of Earth’s Transmission- and Key Signal Types

Directional transmission (METI )– you choose a known exoplanet or promising star, minimizing exposure of one’s civilization by targeting needles in haystack, amongst 300- 500 million stars. Takes forever. That is the current strategy, based on the Dark Forest Hypothesis.
Omnidirectional transmission (unintentional METI) – “everyone in the Galaxy” can eavesdrop; historically Earth’s leakage (TV, Radio and nuclear expolsions) was unintended METI.

  • Mobile Communication Leakage (omnidirectional): The Sheikh paper addressed leakage from LTE cellphone communication systems. Researchers estimate the impressive peak power leaking into space from mobile towers is approximately 4 GW. This pales into insignificance when we realize that an observer can only detect these signals from up to about 4 light-years away.
  • Planetary Radar (highly directional): Many radio telescopes can function as radar systems—for example, to measure the distances of Solar System planets or distant asteroids and to assess their probability of impacting Earth. And for about 62.7 hours these systems have also been used to send messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations.

The following key signal types were omitted from the study on Earth’s radio technosignatures in the Sheikh paper:

  • Television Signals (omnidirectional): Earth’s early Radio and TV bubble was omnidirectional. An observer can detect it in every direction. An extraterrestrial audience could theoretically detect analog television signals—which began broadcasting in the 1930s—from up to 111 light-years away, representing a historical “radio bubble” of our planet’s past emissions. Broadcasters transmitted these signals, which operated in the VHF and UHF ranges, with megawatts of power.
  • Radio Signals (omnidirectional): In contrast, AM and FM radio signals, do not penetrate into space as effectively as higher-frequency signals. While they are powerful enough for terrestrial reception, their intensity diminishes rapidly with distance, limiting their ability to escape Earth’s immediate vicinity into deep space.
  • Radar (directional): The post–World War II era saw significant, continuous growth in radar systems—military, air-traffic-control, and weather—which, despite their pulsed nature, delivered consistently high average power thanks to their high operating frequencies and widespread deployment. By the 2000s, radar emissions into space were estimated at several hundred megawatts. Radar is not omnidirectional. If ETI had instrumentation comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), they might detect our radar transmissions from distances up to approximately 300 light-years.
  • Military Radar (directional): Military radar systems are among the most powerful signals intentionally emitted from Earth. While specific power levels are often not publicly detailed, they are generally described as “significant”. A key characteristic of military radar is its directionality. These signals are designed to be highly directional, focusing their energy into narrow beams to achieve precise detection and tracking of targets. This focused power allows them to be very strong within their beam, making them highly detectable if an extraterrestrial observer is precisely aligned with that beam.
  • Nuclear Explosions (omnidirectional): Humankind has detonated 2,000 nuclear bombs since 1945. The Russian Tsar Bomba of 1961 was the most powerful, and its radio emissions were ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo message.

Using the link-budget formula (PDF 3), we calculate that the Tsar Bomb electromagnetic pulse (PDF 4) could have been (or will be) detected by advanced radiotelescope technology (SKA2) out to roughly 36,000 light-years.

Looking ahead, the capabilities of a more highly advanced extraterrestrial civilization might extend that range to about 1.17 million light-years. That is enough to encompass the volume of the Milky Way, which is estimated to contain 300–500 million habitable planets. Several dwarf galaxies also lie within this volume of space. The thermonuclear Tsar Bomb explosion was by far the strongest radio signal that Earth has ever sent into space.

SETI scientists argue that the short duration of nuclear electromagnetic pulses makes their detection unlikely. That may have been true if those EMP had been the only radio pulses coming from Earth. But as a matter of fact, Earth had been making waves for decades before the barrage of nuclear tests ended. The expanding TV and radio bubble made sure of that. And those broadcasts transmitted 24/7.

8. Challenges of Interstellar Detection: Signal Degradation and Cosmic Noise

How Space Wears Down Radio Signals: Distance and the Interstellar Medium
The journey of any radio signal across 10,000 light-years is governed by the inverse square law, which causes a dramatic reduction in signal intensity. Beyond simple weakening, the interstellar medium (ISM) acts as a complex distorting filter. The ISM gas between the stars can spread out a broadband signal over time. Tiny variations in electron density scatter the waves. That scattering not only stretches the signal in time and space but also produces rapid, unpredictable flickers in intensity. These scintillations can make a message impossible to decode. Such distortions get much worse at lower frequencies. That is why astronomers favor the 1–10 GHz “microwave window”, the best range for sending signals across interstellar space.

The Cosmic Veil: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
Space isn’t silent—it’s alive with radio chatter. From our Sun’s booming broadcasts to distant black holes belting out jets of particles, the universe drips with natural “noise.” that can easily mask any deliberate signal we send or hope to detect. Any terrestrial signal must be distinguished from the overwhelming natural radio background of the cosmos. This background includes pervasive sources like the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which establishes a fundamental noise floor, and galactic background noise from synchrotron radiation. And are pulsars natural phenomena, mimicking certain characteristics of intelligent signals, or are they intelligent signals, misunderstood by humankinds igorance of the engineering capapilities of a Kardashev type III and IV ciilization? These questions pose a significant challenge for recognition.

9. Conclusion: The Reality of Interstellar Eavesdropping

The Hypothetical Tech Needed for Extraterrestrial Eavesdropping
For an extraterrestrial civilization to detect Earth’s radio technosignature from 10,000 light-years, it would require radio astronomy technology vastly superior to current human capabilities.

This would likely involve collecting areas orders of magnitude larger than our most powerful telescopes (potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of Arecibo-sized dishes), coupled with extremely low system temperatures (achieved through cryogenic cooling), wide bandwidths, and very long integration times to achieve the necessary signal-to-noise ratio.


The Real Odds: Why Earth’s Radio Shouts Are Mostly Whispers Across the Galaxy
In conclusion, while the theoretical detectability of Earth’s most powerful, directed radio emissions extends to galactic distances, the practical challenges of signal attenuation, interstellar distortion, and overwhelming cosmic noise mean that the vast majority of Earth’s radio footprint remains localized. The successful detection of Earth’s intelligent signal from 10,000 light-years would signify an extraordinary level of technological advancement on the part of the observing extraterrestrial civilization, far surpassing humanity’s current capabilities. This underscores the profound difficulty in interstellar communication and provides critical perspective for humanity’s ongoing search for extraterrestrial intelligence.


Tired of Waiting for E.T. to Call?
It’s Time to Make the First Move.

Our civilization’s radio tech signature offers a stark revelation: waiting passively to be discovered is a strategy doomed by the physics of communication and the trajectory of technology. Our own history serves as a cosmic mirror, reflecting the likely silence of other advanced societies. The prospects of being detected by chance are remarkably slim; our most powerful, intentional messages have been mere momentary shouts aimed with laser-like precision at impossibly small targets. Simultaneously, our best chance for accidental discovery—the omnidirectional “radio bubble”…is rapidly fading as we become more efficient and, consequently, “radio quiet.”

Cosmic Mirror

If we accept this fleeting, whispering technological phase as typical, we must conclude that waiting for another civilization’s leaky signals is as futile as them waiting for ours. The Great Silence may not be a lack of life, but a universe of civilizations that, like us, have outgrown noisy, inefficient broadcasting.

This realization demands a shift in strategy. To stand any chance of being detected, or of detecting others, we must embrace Active METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). We cannot hope to find a needle in a cosmic haystack by chance; we must listen for the magnets. By understanding that we would need to build a powerful, sustained, and deliberate beacon to announce our presence, the cosmic mirror shows us precisely what we should be searching for. Committing to an active, intentional transmission is therefore not just an act of introduction; it is the most logical step toward refining our own search, transforming our understanding of our own limitations into the very tool needed to finally detect a kindred signal in the void.


This article presented new independent research on Earth’s historical radio signature in the cosmos, the total duration and strength of modern METI transmissions and -by comparison- the detectability of thermonuclear explosions by extraterrestrial civilizations.

Erich Habich-Traut

References used in this text:

  1. PDF: Earth’s Evolving Radio Footprint: A Megawatt Analysis of Anthropogenic Emissions in Outer Space (1900-2025)
  2. PDF: Major METI Transmissions
  3. PDF: TSAR Bomba Nuclear EMP detectability by Extraterrestrial Civilization
  4. PDF: Radio power comparison Tsar Bomba (1961) vs. Arecibo SETI Signal (1974)
  5. Article: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

The WOW! Signal, Part 2: Math Suggests Origin from Unknown Source, Moving Towards Earth

Illustration (not a real photo)

Just the facts:
PDF: Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977): download here | Discussion on the paper: Academia.edu

Preamble

In 2022, I published The WOW! signal, Part 1: Not made by humans?.
For the longest time (3 years), I wondered why I left the possibility open for “Part 2” instead of just writing “The End.”

It’s now become clear that Part 2 is essential because it includes an important detail that was missing before: EQUATIONS!

Anyone can write anything, but without mathematical equations, it’s just prose. So, here, now, for anyone to check, are the steps required to verify the movement of the Wow! signal towards Earth at 10.526 km/s in 1977.

This truly represents a significant paradigm shift. Previously, the Wow! signal was just the most plausible and only candidate for a radio transmission of non-human extraterrestrial origin in space. Now it is shown that this signal was moving and en route to Earth.

Whatever this means (We Are Not Alone?), it is remarkable that the Doppler calculations on this signal have never been published before. Did the authorities believe it would cause a panic?

Introduction

The Wow! signal has been the strongest and only serious candidate for ETi radio communication for almost half a century. New calculations support that the Wow! signal may have originated from a moving source heading for Earth, adding to its significance in the search for extraterrestrial life.

The text describes the Wow! signal, a strong radio transmission detected by the Big Ear telescope on August 15, 1977, at a frequency of 1420.4556 MHz, which corresponds to a wavelength of 21.105373 cm. The signal’s expected frequency, based on hydrogen, is 1420405751.768 Hz, translating to a wavelength of 21.106114054160 cm. The Doppler shift calculations yield a speed of approximately 10,526 m/sec (37,893 km/h), suggesting that the signal originated from an object approaching Earth. Shown here are the steps to calculate the Doppler shift speed. For context, the average speed of asteroids is around 18–20 km/s, while comets that impact Earth typically travel at about 30 km/s. In comparison, the human-made Voyager spacecraft 1 and 2 are currently traveling at speeds of 15 to 17 km/s.

Speed comparison
The WOW! signal source appears to have approached Earth at 37,893 km/h. The entry speed of the Apollo capsules into the Earth’s atmosphere was 39,705 km/h.

Image NASA: example of atmospheric entry, showing the Mars Exploration Rover aeroshell (MER).

For a better understanding, I added the illustration of the Mars Exploration Rover’s entry into the Mars atmosphere. NASA did choose this shape for its aerodynamic properties. It is possible that the Wow! signal originated from a UFO about to enter Earth’s atmosphere, as much as any other interpretation.

In conclusion, the Wow! signal appears to have originated from an unknown type of source that was approaching Earth at a speed of 10.5 km/s, as indicated by observations and these calculations. It is unknown if this is due to the source’s approach to Earth or the galaxy’s relative movement to Earth. Both scenarios are possible.

Investigations of the Wow! signal to date have not accounted for or mentioned the Doppler blueshift of the signal.

Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 1
Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 2

References:

1: Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977)
https://www.academia.edu/126982728/The_Wow_Signal_Doppler_Shift_Equations

2: ”The tantalizing WOW! Signal” by John Kraus, 1977, Archives of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, https://www.nrao.edu/archives/files/original/2ec6ba346ab16e10a10d09462507beda.pdf

3. Not Made By Humans? Part 2 / The Wow! Signal: Evidence Suggests Origin from Unknown Object, Moving Towards Earth
https://www.academia.edu/126983022/Not_Made_By_Humans_Part_2_The_Wow_Signal_Evidence_Suggests_Origin_from_Unknown_Object_Moving_Towards_Earth

4. Original publication:
Not made by humans? | Part 1, February 5, 2022, Contact Project
https://contactproject.org/?p=779

5. Searching for Interstellar Communications
by Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison
https://web.archive.org/web/20110403061008/http://www.coseti.org/morris_0.htm

6. An approximation to determine the source of the WOW! Signal
Alberto Caballero
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.06090

7. Wow! signal, Wikipedia
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal

8. “Ballad of the ‘Wow!’ Signal”, Paul H. Shuch, SETI League
http://drseti.org/audio/wow.mp3


PDF: The Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977):
download here

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 3: Skepticism and Egyptian Mysticism

UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar

Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)

Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.


Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals

Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.

Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.

The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.


THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism

Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.

Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.

And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.

The symbol of the Sphinx Head Tomb Secret Society, Cornell University

What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.

Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.

What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.