The Sagan Paradox Chapter 9: GOLDILOCKS IN OUR COSMIC NEIGHBORHOOD

The article moves from the general historical context of SETI to a specific, modern candidate for life, then to a mysterious signal from that candidate, critiquing the scientific response to potential extraterrestrial signals, presenting an alternative theory for the signal, and finally broadening the discussion to the overall limitations of the SETI methodology.

A Sagan-Sized Question

For decades, the search for extraterrestrial life was haunted by a daunting sense of scale. In a 1969 lecture that laid the foundation for modern UFO skepticism, Carl Sagan imagined our cosmic neighbors searching for us by a random principle: sending a spaceship to any old star and simply hoping for the best. More often than not, he assumed, they would find nothing. The universe was a colossal haystack, and intelligent life was a single, lonely needle.

It is a triumph of modern astronomy that this picture has been completely overturned. Today, we know of promising candidates for life-bearing planets right in our cosmic backyard. The proverbial haystack, it turns out, might just be a needle factory.

Proxima b’s orbit is in the habitable zone, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be habitable.

From Random Hopes to Targeted Searches

We are no longer searching blindly. Armed not with metal detectors but with powerful telescopes, we can pinpoint the most likely worlds to harbor life. An intelligent civilization on Earth would not send probes randomly into the void; we would send them to these promising targets. And there are many.

In 2016, astronomers discovered one such target: Proxima Centauri b in the Alpha Centauri system: a potentially habitable planet orbiting the closest star to our sun, a mere 4.2 light-years away. While its parent star’s fierce solar winds make surface picnics unlikely, life could theoretically thrive in subterranean shelters.

In an unrealized project, NASA studied in 1987 the possibility of reaching the orbit of Proxima Centauri b within just 100 years at 4.5% the speed of light. This project was named Longshot, and it was about sending an unmanned probe using nuclear propulsion.

If our initial observations of such a world prove inconclusive in the search for life, what would we do? We would do what we are already doing with Mars: we would send probe after probe until we could be certain. Why would an alien intelligence, having discovered a promising blue dot called Earth, be any different? And from a distance, what do our own Martian space probes look like, if not unidentified flying objects?

Human spacecraft approaches Mars, Enlargement of oil on canvas panel for NASA Headquarters. By Don Davis.

A Tantalizing Whisper from Proxima b

In a remarkable coincidence, just as we began to focus on Proxima b in the search for extraterrestrial life, a potential signal emerged from its direction. In April and May of 2019, the Parkes radio telescope in Australia detected a strange, narrow-band radio emission. Dubbed Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1 (BLC1), initially it was classified as a possible sign from an alien civilization.

Parkes Radio Telescope, by Diceman Stephen West, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The signal’s characteristics were puzzling. Its Doppler shift—the change in its frequency—appeared to be the opposite of what would be expected from the planet’s orbit. Curiously, the signal appeared 10 days after a major solar flare from Proxima Centauri, though no link has been established. The primary investigators were two interns, Shane Smith and Sofia Sheikh. They worked cautiously to rule out terrestrial interference.

Some senior researchers did review the results but found nothing of note.


Long Delay

The BLC-1 signal was first reported publicly 1.5 years after its detection, and only because it was leaked to The Guardian newspaper. The public then had to wait another year for the final results. People were puzzled by the secrecy which fueled speculation.

Delays in announcing a discovery—or non-discovery—within SETI and astronomy are standard practice. Data are not released to the public until they have been verified. For instance, when radio stars were first discovered in 1967, it took two years before the discovery was published. The scientists held on to their data until they found what they considered a plausible natural explanation. The supposed Pulsar mechanism remains a mystery to this day.

This delay practice by SETI can give the impression that data are withheld until “natural explanations” have been found; radio-frequency interference (RFI) is one such explanation.

“Ultimately, I think we’ll be able to convince ourselves that BLC-1 is interference.”

– Andrew Siemion, SETI Principal Investigator for Breakthrough Listen

Within the SETI community, Siemion’s statement exemplifies scientific humility and the cautious process necessary to distinguish genuine signals from interference. Outside SETI, analogous statements can be understood as masking underlying biases or reluctance to accept paradigm-shifting discoveries. This highlights how context influences the interpretation of such remarks.


How long did Earth listen for the BLC-1 signal?

Breakthrough Listen reserved 30 hours on the Parkes telescope to observe Proxima Centauri, but the putative signal was detected during only about three of those hours—roughly 10 % of the total observing time.

During the next six months the team logged another 39 hours of follow-up observations. Out of the 4,320 hours in that half-year, just 0.9 % was spent searching for a repeat—about one-tenth of the effort devoted to the original scan.

The question remains: Was a longer campaign warranted? More generally, aren’t extended observing campaigns in radio-astronomical SETI necessary? We cannot presume that extraterrestrial civilizations broadcast continuous signals; those transmissions may be the only ones we ever detect, and even then only by chance.

BLC-1 has underscored that, when practicable, observations of potential technosignatures should be conducted from at least two different observing sites simultaneously. That this wasn’t done in the case of BLC-1 is inexplicable.

What would be the worst case when announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence?

A mass panic? That later investigations prove the discovery to be wrong and it has to be retracted? Thus discrediting the field of SETI? Or that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the Cosmos? Would this discovery temper humankinds worst instincts, such as warfare, to the detriment of despotic rulers?


A “Galactic Communications Grid” and BLC-1

At first glance, detecting a narrowband radio signal (e.g., BLC-1) from Proxima Centauri—the star system next door—seems fantastically unlikely. Astrophysicist Jason T. Wright countered that, from an engineering standpoint, Proxima is exactly where we should expect to find such a transmission.

If a galactic communication network exists, Proxima would be the most likely “last mile” transmitter to the Solar System. Instead of every civilization trying to beam powerful, targeted messages to every other star system they want to contact, they would establish a network of communication nodes or relays.


Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”

Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”
In this scenario, Proxima Centauri—the closest star to our Solar System—serves as the logical “cell tower.” A message intended for our region of space would be routed through the galactic network to the Proxima Centauri system. A transmitter located there would then handle the “last mile” broadcast to the Solar System.

These nodes in the Galactic Communications Grid would need to ping each other regularly. But since radio waves travel at the speed of light, a single ping would take over eight years (accounting for the 4.24-light-year distance and signal processing time). Given this limitation, perhaps there’s another way to communicate with extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI)?

The speed of light is fixed for electromagnetic radio waves—but what about physical objects? And I’m not primarily referring to warp technology, but rather to objects that might already be here.


The Trouble with SETI

ET to SETI: can you hear us now?
ET to SETI: can you hear us now?

 SETI’s foundational premise is that extraterrestrial civilizations would likely be light-years away, not operating stealthily in Earth’s atmosphere. The hundreds of thousands of reported UFO sighting are perceived by SETI as being mostly the product of wishful thinking, misinterpretations and fakes.

Because UAPs/UFOs have no confirmed extraterrestrial link, SETI has no scientific basis for allocating resources to them. Consequently, no scientific efforts are undertaken to attempt contact with UAPs by radio or other signalling methods (e.g., lasers).

To qualify as a genuine ETI radio signal, the signal must come from far away and its detection must be reproducible. Otherwise it risks being classified as interference outright.

Highly directional, sensitive radio telescopes are not suited for close-range communication. For this reason, the Contact Project has suggested involving amateur radio operators (hams), whose omnidirectional antennas could be used in communication attempts with UAPs.

SETI with directional AND omnidirectional antennas, for far-and close-range Rx/Tx searches

Scientific Observational Attempts to Detect UAPs/UFOs

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb has been leading the Galileo Project, one branch of his project is the detection of possible radio emissions from UAPs.

With new observatories online Avi Loeb is challenging the scientific establishment by taking UAPs seriously.

He sensationally declared he’s looking for intelligent life in deep space, blasting: “I’m interested in intelligence in outer space because I don’t find it very often here on Earth!”

The definition of his job is simple. “What is it to be a scientist?” he asks. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s the privilege of being curious.” It is this foundational principle that now drives one of the most ambitious and controversial scientific endeavors of our time: the Galileo Project. In an age of polarized opinion, the project aims to rise above the noise by focusing on a single, unimpeachable authority. “In science,” he declares, “the arbitrator is the physical reality.”

The project, which is now in full swing in the summer of 2025, was born from a frustration with a scientific community he sees as often too quick to dismiss the unknown. The turning point was the baffling 2017 interstellar visitor, ‘Oumuamua. Its strange, flat shape and its acceleration away from the sun without a visible cometary tail led him to suggest it could be an artifact of an alien technology. The backlash was swift. He recalls a colleague, an expert on rocks, confiding that ‘Oumuamua was “so weird I wish it never existed”—a statement project leader Avi Loeb sees as the antithesis of scientific curiosity.

The Mysterious Signal from Proxima Centauri: How Scientists Solved a Cosmic Whodunit

The Discovery That (almost) Fooled Astronomers

In April 2019, astronomers with the Breakthrough Listen project detected something extraordinary: a narrow radio signal at 982 MHz, seemingly emanating from Proxima Centauri, our solar system’s closest stellar neighbor. Dubbed BLC1 (Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1), the signal had all the hallmarks of a technosignature—a potential transmission from an extraterrestrial civilization.

For a brief moment, the world dared to wonder: Had we finally found evidence of alien technology?

But as scientists dug deeper, the truth proved far more mundane—and far more fascinating.

The Case for BLC1 as an Alien Signal

At first glance, BLC1 was the most compelling candidate in the history of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI):

Precise frequency: The signal was laser-sharp, just a few Hertz wide—something natural astrophysical phenomena can’t produce.

Non-zero drift: Its frequency drifted at 0.03 Hz/s, consistent with a transmitter on a planet like Proxima b.

Localized: It appeared only when the telescope pointed at Proxima Centauri, vanishing during off-source scans.

“The signal appears to only show up in our data when we’re looking in the direction of Proxima Centauri, which is exciting,” Ms. Sheikh said.

The Plot Twist: A Cosmic False Alarm

The Breakthrough Listen team subjected BLC1 to relentless scrutiny—and cracks began to appear.

May 2nd 2019, a possible BLC1 redetection: radio dish is pointed at Proxima b

1. The Drift That Didn’t Fit

If BLC1 came from Proxima b, its frequency drift should have shown:

Cyclical variation (rising and falling as the planet rotated).
Orbital signatures (subtle shifts tied to its 11.2-day year).

Instead, the drift was strangely linear—more like a glitching human device than an alien beacon.

2. The RFI Doppelgängers

Then, researchers found dozens of similar signals at frequencies like 712 MHz and 1062 MHz—all mathematically linked to common radio interference (RFI). These “lookalikes” had the same drift behavior but were unmistakably human-made, appearing even when the telescope wasn’t pointed at Proxima.

BLC1 wasn’t a lone anomaly—it was part of a pattern.

3. The Cadence Coincidence

The final clue? BLC1’s timing matched the telescope’s observing schedule.

On-source (30 min): Signal detectable.
Off-source (5 min): Signal too faint to see.

This created an illusion of localization—like a flickering streetlight that only seems to work when you walk by.

The Verdict: A Cosmic Mirage

After a year of analysis, the team concluded: BLC1 was interference, likely from:

Intermodulation: A “ghost” signal created when two radio waves mixed in faulty electronics.

A malfunctioning device (possibly hundreds of miles from the observatory).

Lessons for the Hunt for Alien Life

BLC1’s rise and fall taught scientists three critical lessons:

Single telescopes are vulnerable to false alarms. Future searches need global networks to cross-check signals.

The search is worth it.

For now, Proxima Centauri’s secrets remain hidden. But the hunt continues.

BLC1 wasn’t aliens—but as SETI enters a new era (with projects like the Square Kilometer Array), we’re better prepared than ever to answer humanity’s oldest question: Are we alone?

Primary Research Papers

These two papers were published concurrently and should be read together for a complete understanding of the BLC1 signal, from its detection to its ultimate classification as interference.

  1. A radio technosignature search towards Proxima Centauri resulting in a signal of interest
    • Authors: Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, Sofia Z. Sheikh, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01479-w
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08007
    • Abstract: This paper describes the overall search for technosignatures from Proxima Centauri and the initial detection of the BLC1 signal. It details the characteristics that made BLC1 an intriguing candidate.
  2. Analysis of the Breakthrough Listen signal of interest blc1 with a technosignature verification framework
    • Authors: Sofia Z. Sheikh, Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01508-8
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.06350
    • Abstract: This is the companion paper that provides a deep dive into the analysis of BLC1. It outlines the verification framework used and presents the evidence that led to the conclusion that BLC1 was a product of human-generated radio frequency interference.

Additional Resources from Breakthrough Listen

The Breakthrough Listen initiative has also made a wealth of information about BLC1 available to the public.

  • BLC1 – Breakthrough Listen’s First “Signal of Interest”: This is the main resource page from the Berkeley SETI Research Center, providing summaries, links to the papers, data, and other supplementary materials.
  • Breakthrough Initiatives Press Release: This press release gives a good overview of the findings in an accessible format.

What If We Were About to Make Contact? The Hypothetical Implications of Confirmed Extraterrestrial Intelligence

What could be the worst-case scenario upon announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence? This list is not inclusive.

Scenarios after Human-ETI Contact. This list is not inclusive of all possibilities.

Potential Consequences:

1. Mass Panic:

The crisis of order. Exploitation could surge, with doomsday cults gaining followers and charlatans claiming to be “ambassadors” for the aliens, preying on the fearful.

Economic collapse might occur, as markets could crash due to radical uncertainty following an extraterrestrial discovery. Misinformation would fill the information vacuum, leading to conspiracy theories and fear-mongering, potentially inciting violence and civil unrest.

However, studies of disasters (including the COVID-19 pandemic) suggest that true, sustained mass panic is less common than often assumed.


2. A Retraction: The Crisis of Credibility

What if subsequent investigations prove the discovery to be false, requiring a retraction? This could discredit the entire SETI field.

Such a scenario would be a catastrophic embarrassment. The field already struggles with what some call the “giggle factor,” and being discredited for a generation could severely damage public trust in scientists and science as a whole. Securing funding for future searches might become nearly impossible after a failed extraterrestrial discovery.


3. Humanity Dethroned: The Crisis of Meaning

What if the extraterrestrial discovery implies that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the cosmos?

Religions centered on human exceptionalism could face a fundamental crisis. However, studies on this subject have shown that the impact may be negligible.

Our entire worldview, which places humanity at the center of meaning, could be invalidated. This could lead to profound, species-wide depression, a loss of purpose, and what philosophers term “cosmic despair.” Why strive, create, or even continue if we are but ants on an unremarkable anthill?

(I disagree.)


4. The Optimistic View (The Cosmic Perspective):

Would this discovery temper humankind’s worst instincts, such as warfare, and diminish the power of despotic rulers?

Carl Sagan and others have hoped that knowing we are not alone would foster a “cosmic perspective.” Realizing we are all citizens of a fragile, shared planet in a vast cosmos could make nationalism, racism, and warfare seem petty and childish. Such an extraterrestrial discovery could unite humanity and pose a threat to despotic rulers whose power relies on manufacturing “us vs. them” conflicts.

(I agree.)


5. The Pessimistic View:

A despotic ruler thrives on controlling information and manipulating fear. An alien intelligence could become the ultimate propaganda tool.

A dictator might claim that the aliens pose a demonic threat, justifying crackdowns and military expansion to “protect” the populace.

They could also claim that the aliens have endorsed their rule, creating a new “divine right” to govern after such an extraterrestrial discovery.

The discovery could trigger an unimaginably high-stakes Cold War, where nations fight not for territory or resources but for control of communication channels and any technological secrets the aliens might reveal.


(Well, that’s why we have HAM radio operators and satellite dishes.)

Scientists Now Hunt for ET’s GARBAGE!

You won’t believe the bizarre new way scientists are hunting for aliens! Forget listening for strange signals—the real proof might be in their TRASH! A team of maverick researchers is now searching for “technosignatures,” and their wild ideas are blowing the lid off the search for ET.

Scientists Now Hunt for ET’s GARBAGE!

The Cosmic Archaeologist:

Star astronomer Jason Wright makes the bombshell claim that alien junk—like their old space probes and pollution—could last for BILLIONS of years, making their garbage heap easier to find than the aliens themselves!

The Pollution Detective:

Researcher Jacob Haqq Misra is on the hunt for the ultimate smoking gun: cosmic factory fumes! He wants to find banned industrial chemicals and even signs of massive alien “space farms” in the atmospheres of distant worlds.

The Ocean Hunter:

But it gets weirder! Sofia Sheikh has the most mind-blowing theory yet—she wants to find microplastics in alien oceans! She even dares to ask if advanced ETs could be aquatic creatures who never needed fire and warns we could be looking right at their super-advanced worlds and be too blind to even notice!

https://web.archive.org/web/20220915101427/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/magazine/extraterrestrials-technosignatures.html

EARTH TO E.T.: WE’VE GONE GHOST!

Earth once blared its presence into space with powerful radio and TV signals—then fell almost silent as we switched to digital and cable. In just a few fleeting decades, our planet’s once-booming “broadcast bubble” shrank to faint whispers, changing Earth’s radio signature. This reshapes our view of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. Discover why that brief broadcast window matters. Is it time for humankind to shift from passive listening (SETI) to actively waving hello to the stars with powerful, deliberate beacons (METI)?

1. Early Radio History and Speculation

Early radio transmissions were generally weak. Therefore, they likely did not penetrate the ionosphere. However, as technology advanced, Earth’s radio signature grew. It marked our planet’s cosmic presence.

In the early years of the twentieth century, there was speculation that Extraterrestrials were trying to contact human beings by radio signals. In 1919, Marconi himself encouraged this speculation, claiming he was receiving strange transmissions resembling Morse code, possibly from outer space.

RKO Radio Pictures Inc., commonly known as RKO, was one of the first film production and distribution companies of Hollywoods Golden Age. RKO eventually expanded its operations to include television broadcasting.

The sound played during the “A Radio Picture” logo from 1929 is Morse code.

From the beginning, their logo featured a transmission tower relaying a Morse code sequence: VVV A RADIO PICTURE VVVV. “VVV” in Morse code means “attention, incoming message”. “VVVV” may mean: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus “The Force of Truth Comes Alive”

2. The Rise of Detectable Signals

By 1931, about 25 TV stations in the U.S. were broadcasting television. And those who worry about Carl Sagan’s novel “Contact”: Germany began TV broadcasting in 1935. Any aliens watching Hitler speak in 1936 may have been more excited by Dolores Del Rio, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire and King Kong. (Picture: The special effects crew behind the set of “A Radio Picture” in 1929.)

The “Golden Age of Radio” and the subsequent rise of analog television broadcasting in the mid-20th century marked the first substantial contribution towards Earth’s technosignature. The total estimated radio power escaping into space reached tens to hundreds of megawatts by the 1970s. Powerful omnidirectional, analog signals characterized this period. This created an easily detectable “radio bubble” around Earth.

Radio power from TV signals excaping into space, reference: A-Megawatt-Analysis-of-Anthropogenic-Emissions-into-Outer-Space-1900-2025.pdf (PDF 1)

3. Earth as a Cosmic Mirror

In the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Earth’s radio emissions serve as a “cosmic mirror,” offering a tangible reference for the kinds of signals a distant, technologically advanced civilization might transmit—signals that, in turn, we might hypothetically detect.

4. The Decline of Broad Leakage

TV stations are growing, but their space-bound signal leakage is shrinking as they abandon over-the-air broadcasts. Our peak broad signal leakage—key to the Drake Equation—began falling as focused, less-leaky communication technologies emerged. This transition includes:

  • Satellite Communications: Becoming widespread from the 1970s and 1980s onwards, satellite transmissions are generally directed point-to-point, reducing broad leakage.
  • Cable Television and Fiber Optics: The increasing use of cable TV (reducing over-the-air television broadcasts) and later, fiber optic cables for a vast amount of data transmission. The internet significantly cut down on the amount of radio frequency energy escaping into space. This shift became more pronounced from the late 20th century into the 21st century.
  • Digital Transmissions: Analog broadcasts, which were once more easily detected, are being replaced by digital signals. These digital signals are often more compressed and less likely to leak into space, contributing to Earth becoming “radio quiet” in terms of traditional broadcast leakage.

5. A Short Critique of the Drake Equation’s “L” Parameter

The Drake equation speculates on alien civilizations. In Drake’s original formulation, people often interpret “L” as the total lifespan of a technological civilization.

The Drake Equation, Image © https://sciencenotes.org, Anne Helmenstine 

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals.

Earth’s broad radio leakage lasted roughly from the 1930s until the 1980s–90s.
Thus, our planet broadcast Drake-equation-style signals for only about 40–60 years.
Then we switched to spread-spectrum digital, satellite, cable, and internet communications. Now only random radar pings and digital blips leak into space, quickly blending into cosmic background noise (CMB).

A young Carl Sagan explains the Drake equation

Although the Drake equation was a playful practice in the last millennium, by its own metric humankind would no longer exist, because we don’t release significant radio leakage anymore. Hence, the Drake equation is somewhat obsolete. If Earth civilization is a typical technological civilization, then we can expect other civilizations to leave a similar footprint of “L”—about fifty years. That leaves almost no time for any astronomer to detect a signal.

Ever wondered about the Fermi paradox and why we hear nothing of our cosmic neighbors in the radio spectrum? Here is one possible explanation:

We are now almost radio silent in the cosmos!

But because our “L” was only a mean 50 years, that doesn’t mean that we are extinct! It’s just that we have upgraded our communication system. This explains why the focus of SETI is shifting, away from radio signals, towards bio signatures and other technosignatures, not just radiowaves.

SETI shifts away from radio siganls

The “L” (Longevity) variable in the Drake Equation is thus not a simple constant even for a single civilization.

Actually, trying to detect interstellar Extraterrestrial civilizations by radio-signatures is a futile endeavour: it’s like scrolling through static on an old TV and hoping to catch an intergalactic episode of I Love Lucy that’s been bouncing around space for a billion years. No advanced technological civilization would be using radiowaves travelling at a mere 300000 km/sec for interstellar communication. That would be like sending smoke signals across the ocean. The only alien radiowaves we can ever hope to receive are leaked planetary signals and possibly navigational beacons.

Cosmic navigational beacons?

6. Analysis of Earth’s Current Radio Signature

The latest study on Earth’s radiosignature is from Sofia Z. Sheikh et al 2025 AJ 169 118: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

Sheikh calculated the detectability of four types of radio emissions from Earth. One conclusion was that an observer can detect planetary radar (Arecibo message from 1975) from the greatest distance. This graphic exemplifies this:

For simplification, I have translated the graph from Sheikh’s study. Labels are written out and “AU” are converted into light-years and kilometers.

Sheikh overlooks that the Arecibo radar message was highly directional—only detectable along its precisely aimed, narrow path.

The Arecibo Message

The “Arecibo message” from 1974 lasted only 168 seconds. Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and the other organizers of the boadcast did make it clear that the message was intended not as a genuine attempt to contact extraterrestrials, but as a symbolic demonstration of human technological capability.

The Arecibo telescope in December 2021. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Any serious attempt at communication with ETI would have required using Arecibo to send continuous signals into space, not just for three minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arecibo_message

Arecibo telescope after its collapse (December 2021). Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Altogether, humankind sent two dozen messages intended for an extraterrestrial audience into space from different telescopes. The total combined efforts in all of history to contact Extraterrestrial civilizations amounted to a measly 62.7 hours of transmissions. Not even three days. That is almost nothing in the billions of years of history of the universe, or life on Earth.
Ref.: Major METI transmissions (PDF 2)

The Arecibo message, with its directional 20 trillion watts (450 kw actual), was sent to the globular cluster M13, 25,000 light-years away. But calculations indicate the signal only penetrates about 12 000 light-years before the interstellar medium (ISM) absorbs it. Pity—what a clever demonstration of human technological prowess that was.

7. Breakdown of Earth’s Transmission- and Key Signal Types

Directional transmission (METI )– you choose a known exoplanet or promising star, minimizing exposure of one’s civilization by targeting needles in haystack, amongst 300- 500 million stars. Takes forever. That is the current strategy, based on the Dark Forest Hypothesis.
Omnidirectional transmission (unintentional METI) – “everyone in the Galaxy” can eavesdrop; historically Earth’s leakage (TV, Radio and nuclear expolsions) was unintended METI.

  • Mobile Communication Leakage (omnidirectional): The Sheikh paper addressed leakage from LTE cellphone communication systems. Researchers estimate the impressive peak power leaking into space from mobile towers is approximately 4 GW. This pales into insignificance when we realize that an observer can only detect these signals from up to about 4 light-years away.
  • Planetary Radar (highly directional): Many radio telescopes can function as radar systems—for example, to measure the distances of Solar System planets or distant asteroids and to assess their probability of impacting Earth. And for about 62.7 hours these systems have also been used to send messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations.

The following key signal types were omitted from the study on Earth’s radio technosignatures in the Sheikh paper:

  • Television Signals (omnidirectional): Earth’s early Radio and TV bubble was omnidirectional. An observer can detect it in every direction. An extraterrestrial audience could theoretically detect analog television signals—which began broadcasting in the 1930s—from up to 111 light-years away, representing a historical “radio bubble” of our planet’s past emissions. Broadcasters transmitted these signals, which operated in the VHF and UHF ranges, with megawatts of power.
  • Radio Signals (omnidirectional): In contrast, AM and FM radio signals, do not penetrate into space as effectively as higher-frequency signals. While they are powerful enough for terrestrial reception, their intensity diminishes rapidly with distance, limiting their ability to escape Earth’s immediate vicinity into deep space.
  • Radar (directional): The post–World War II era saw significant, continuous growth in radar systems—military, air-traffic-control, and weather—which, despite their pulsed nature, delivered consistently high average power thanks to their high operating frequencies and widespread deployment. By the 2000s, radar emissions into space were estimated at several hundred megawatts. Radar is not omnidirectional. If ETI had instrumentation comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), they might detect our radar transmissions from distances up to approximately 300 light-years.
  • Military Radar (directional): Military radar systems are among the most powerful signals intentionally emitted from Earth. While specific power levels are often not publicly detailed, they are generally described as “significant”. A key characteristic of military radar is its directionality. These signals are designed to be highly directional, focusing their energy into narrow beams to achieve precise detection and tracking of targets. This focused power allows them to be very strong within their beam, making them highly detectable if an extraterrestrial observer is precisely aligned with that beam.
  • Nuclear Explosions (omnidirectional): Humankind has detonated 2,000 nuclear bombs since 1945. The Russian Tsar Bomba of 1961 was the most powerful, and its radio emissions were ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo message.

Using the link-budget formula (PDF 3), we calculate that the Tsar Bomb electromagnetic pulse (PDF 4) could have been (or will be) detected by advanced radiotelescope technology (SKA2) out to roughly 36,000 light-years.

Looking ahead, the capabilities of a more highly advanced extraterrestrial civilization might extend that range to about 1.17 million light-years. That is enough to encompass the volume of the Milky Way, which is estimated to contain 300–500 million habitable planets. Several dwarf galaxies also lie within this volume of space. The thermonuclear Tsar Bomb explosion was by far the strongest radio signal that Earth has ever sent into space.

SETI scientists argue that the short duration of nuclear electromagnetic pulses makes their detection unlikely. That may have been true if those EMP had been the only radio pulses coming from Earth. But as a matter of fact, Earth had been making waves for decades before the barrage of nuclear tests ended. The expanding TV and radio bubble made sure of that. And those broadcasts transmitted 24/7.

8. Challenges of Interstellar Detection: Signal Degradation and Cosmic Noise

How Space Wears Down Radio Signals: Distance and the Interstellar Medium
The journey of any radio signal across 10,000 light-years is governed by the inverse square law, which causes a dramatic reduction in signal intensity. Beyond simple weakening, the interstellar medium (ISM) acts as a complex distorting filter. The ISM gas between the stars can spread out a broadband signal over time. Tiny variations in electron density scatter the waves. That scattering not only stretches the signal in time and space but also produces rapid, unpredictable flickers in intensity. These scintillations can make a message impossible to decode. Such distortions get much worse at lower frequencies. That is why astronomers favor the 1–10 GHz “microwave window”, the best range for sending signals across interstellar space.

The Cosmic Veil: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
Space isn’t silent—it’s alive with radio chatter. From our Sun’s booming broadcasts to distant black holes belting out jets of particles, the universe drips with natural “noise.” that can easily mask any deliberate signal we send or hope to detect. Any terrestrial signal must be distinguished from the overwhelming natural radio background of the cosmos. This background includes pervasive sources like the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which establishes a fundamental noise floor, and galactic background noise from synchrotron radiation. And are pulsars natural phenomena, mimicking certain characteristics of intelligent signals, or are they intelligent signals, misunderstood by humankinds igorance of the engineering capapilities of a Kardashev type III and IV ciilization? These questions pose a significant challenge for recognition.

9. Conclusion: The Reality of Interstellar Eavesdropping

The Hypothetical Tech Needed for Extraterrestrial Eavesdropping
For an extraterrestrial civilization to detect Earth’s radio technosignature from 10,000 light-years, it would require radio astronomy technology vastly superior to current human capabilities.

This would likely involve collecting areas orders of magnitude larger than our most powerful telescopes (potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of Arecibo-sized dishes), coupled with extremely low system temperatures (achieved through cryogenic cooling), wide bandwidths, and very long integration times to achieve the necessary signal-to-noise ratio.


The Real Odds: Why Earth’s Radio Shouts Are Mostly Whispers Across the Galaxy
In conclusion, while the theoretical detectability of Earth’s most powerful, directed radio emissions extends to galactic distances, the practical challenges of signal attenuation, interstellar distortion, and overwhelming cosmic noise mean that the vast majority of Earth’s radio footprint remains localized. The successful detection of Earth’s intelligent signal from 10,000 light-years would signify an extraordinary level of technological advancement on the part of the observing extraterrestrial civilization, far surpassing humanity’s current capabilities. This underscores the profound difficulty in interstellar communication and provides critical perspective for humanity’s ongoing search for extraterrestrial intelligence.


Tired of Waiting for E.T. to Call?
It’s Time to Make the First Move.

Our civilization’s radio tech signature offers a stark revelation: waiting passively to be discovered is a strategy doomed by the physics of communication and the trajectory of technology. Our own history serves as a cosmic mirror, reflecting the likely silence of other advanced societies. The prospects of being detected by chance are remarkably slim; our most powerful, intentional messages have been mere momentary shouts aimed with laser-like precision at impossibly small targets. Simultaneously, our best chance for accidental discovery—the omnidirectional “radio bubble”…is rapidly fading as we become more efficient and, consequently, “radio quiet.”

Cosmic Mirror

If we accept this fleeting, whispering technological phase as typical, we must conclude that waiting for another civilization’s leaky signals is as futile as them waiting for ours. The Great Silence may not be a lack of life, but a universe of civilizations that, like us, have outgrown noisy, inefficient broadcasting.

This realization demands a shift in strategy. To stand any chance of being detected, or of detecting others, we must embrace Active METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). We cannot hope to find a needle in a cosmic haystack by chance; we must listen for the magnets. By understanding that we would need to build a powerful, sustained, and deliberate beacon to announce our presence, the cosmic mirror shows us precisely what we should be searching for. Committing to an active, intentional transmission is therefore not just an act of introduction; it is the most logical step toward refining our own search, transforming our understanding of our own limitations into the very tool needed to finally detect a kindred signal in the void.


This article presented new independent research on Earth’s historical radio signature in the cosmos, the total duration and strength of modern METI transmissions and -by comparison- the detectability of thermonuclear explosions by extraterrestrial civilizations.

Erich Habich-Traut

References used in this text:

  1. PDF: Earth’s Evolving Radio Footprint: A Megawatt Analysis of Anthropogenic Emissions in Outer Space (1900-2025)
  2. PDF: Major METI Transmissions
  3. PDF: TSAR Bomba Nuclear EMP detectability by Extraterrestrial Civilization
  4. PDF: Radio power comparison Tsar Bomba (1961) vs. Arecibo SETI Signal (1974)
  5. Article: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

The Signal

A Science Fiction Short Story: In a universe filled with mysteries, the discovery of an extraterrestrial signal could change everything.

Chapter 1: The Question

Ray Faser leaned back in his chair, fingers steepled, staring at the projection of Earth’s nuclear test history—a timeline of detonations stretching from 1945 to 1996. The data pulsed like a slow, irregular heartbeat.

Two thousand nuclear blasts. Each one had sent an electromagnetic scream (EMP) into the void.

On the other side of the screen, Dr. Elias Varen, a senior astrophysicist with the SETI Institute, adjusted his glasses.
“You’re suggesting we’ve already announced ourselves.”

Ray consulted a printout and smirked.

A thermonuclear bomb blast in 1961 emitted 10 billion times more radio waves than the Arecibo message. Click to view the calculations (PDF).

“I’m saying we lit a bonfire in the ‘Dark Forest‘. And now we’re whispering ‘Hello?’ like we’re afraid of being rude.”

Varen exhaled. “The difference is intent. A nuclear EMP is noise. A structured message is a handshake.”

Ray leaned forward. “You think an advanced civilization hears a thousand atomic explosions and thinks, ‘Hmm, must be background radiation’? They’ll know what it is. And they’ll know it’s dangerous.”

Chapter 2: The UAP Variable

The Pentagon’s recent disclosures hung between them like an unspoken specter. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena—craft defying known physics, lingering in Earth’s skies for decades.

Ray tapped the table. “If they’re already here, silence isn’t caution. It’s stupidity. We should be sending ‘We come in peace’ in every frequency we’ve got.”

Varen’s jaw tightened. “Or we’re confirming we’re a threat. Nuclear weapons, uncontrolled emissions—what if they’re waiting to see if we grow up?”

“Or waiting to see if we shoot first,” Ray countered. The Dark Forest isn’t just a theory. It’s a mirror. We’re the ones who nuked ourselves two thousand times. We’re the predators.”

Chapter 3: The Silence Gambit

A new voice cut in—Dr. Elena Papadakis, a xenopsychologist. “Assume they have detected us. Silence could be read as hostility. A predator hiding.”

Varen shook his head. “Or prudence.”

Ray laughed bitterly. “Prudence? We’re ostriches. Heads in the sand, asses in the air.”

He pulled up the latest UAP footage—a tic-tac object maneuvering at Mach 10. “They aren’t hiding. Why are we?”

Chapter 4: The Decision

The room fell quiet. The screen flickered, overlaying Earth’s radio bubble—expanding at light speed for a century, a glowing sphere of TV broadcasts, radar pings, and nuclear EMPs that might just serve as an unintended extraterrestrial signal.

Elena broke the silence. “If they’re here, they already know who we are. The question isn’t if we signal. It’s what we say.”

Ray leaned back. “How about ‘We’re not all psychopaths’?”

Varen didn’t smile. “Or we prove it.”

Outside, the stars burned cold and distant. Waiting.

Epilogue: The First Message

Three months later, the Arecibo successor array sent a single, repeating sequence toward a UAP hotspot.

Not mathematics. Not science.

Music.
Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy.”

A handshake—or a plea.

The Dark Forest listened.

——————-

Author’s note
The character of Ray Faser (and his author) have been waiting for reactivation ever since their first and last appearance in a short science-fiction story in a school newspaper in 1979.

Reference:
The history of nuclear testing began early on the morning of 16 July 1945 at a desert test site in Alamogordo, New Mexico when the United States exploded its first atomic bomb. In the five decades between that fateful day in 1945 and the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were carried out all over the world.
https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-nuclear-tests-day/history

Arecibo message power vs Tsar Bomba Calculation
(Nuclear bomb sent 10 billion times more radio waves into space than Arecibo.) (PDF) Arecibo message power vs Tsar Bomba Calculation

—————————-
#fypシ゚

The WOW! Signal, Part 2: Math Suggests Origin from Unknown Source, Moving Towards Earth

Illustration (not a real photo)

Just the facts:
PDF: Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977): download here | Discussion on the paper: Academia.edu

Preamble

In 2022, I published The WOW! signal, Part 1: Not made by humans?.
For the longest time (3 years), I wondered why I left the possibility open for “Part 2” instead of just writing “The End.”

It’s now become clear that Part 2 is essential because it includes an important detail that was missing before: EQUATIONS!

Anyone can write anything, but without mathematical equations, it’s just prose. So, here, now, for anyone to check, are the steps required to verify the movement of the Wow! signal towards Earth at 10.526 km/s in 1977.

This truly represents a significant paradigm shift. Previously, the Wow! signal was just the most plausible and only candidate for a radio transmission of non-human extraterrestrial origin in space. Now it is shown that this signal was moving and en route to Earth.

Whatever this means (We Are Not Alone?), it is remarkable that the Doppler calculations on this signal have never been published before. Did the authorities believe it would cause a panic?

Introduction

The Wow! signal has been the strongest and only serious candidate for ETi radio communication for almost half a century. New calculations support that the Wow! signal may have originated from a moving source heading for Earth, adding to its significance in the search for extraterrestrial life.

The text describes the Wow! signal, a strong radio transmission detected by the Big Ear telescope on August 15, 1977, at a frequency of 1420.4556 MHz, which corresponds to a wavelength of 21.105373 cm. The signal’s expected frequency, based on hydrogen, is 1420405751.768 Hz, translating to a wavelength of 21.106114054160 cm. The Doppler shift calculations yield a speed of approximately 10,526 m/sec (37,893 km/h), suggesting that the signal originated from an object approaching Earth. Shown here are the steps to calculate the Doppler shift speed. For context, the average speed of asteroids is around 18–20 km/s, while comets that impact Earth typically travel at about 30 km/s. In comparison, the human-made Voyager spacecraft 1 and 2 are currently traveling at speeds of 15 to 17 km/s.

Speed comparison
The WOW! signal source appears to have approached Earth at 37,893 km/h. The entry speed of the Apollo capsules into the Earth’s atmosphere was 39,705 km/h.

Image NASA: example of atmospheric entry, showing the Mars Exploration Rover aeroshell (MER).

For a better understanding, I added the illustration of the Mars Exploration Rover’s entry into the Mars atmosphere. NASA did choose this shape for its aerodynamic properties. It is possible that the Wow! signal originated from a UFO about to enter Earth’s atmosphere, as much as any other interpretation.

In conclusion, the Wow! signal appears to have originated from an unknown type of source that was approaching Earth at a speed of 10.5 km/s, as indicated by observations and these calculations. It is unknown if this is due to the source’s approach to Earth or the galaxy’s relative movement to Earth. Both scenarios are possible.

Investigations of the Wow! signal to date have not accounted for or mentioned the Doppler blueshift of the signal.

Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 1
Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 2

References:

1: Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977)
https://www.academia.edu/126982728/The_Wow_Signal_Doppler_Shift_Equations

2: ”The tantalizing WOW! Signal” by John Kraus, 1977, Archives of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, https://www.nrao.edu/archives/files/original/2ec6ba346ab16e10a10d09462507beda.pdf

3. Not Made By Humans? Part 2 / The Wow! Signal: Evidence Suggests Origin from Unknown Object, Moving Towards Earth
https://www.academia.edu/126983022/Not_Made_By_Humans_Part_2_The_Wow_Signal_Evidence_Suggests_Origin_from_Unknown_Object_Moving_Towards_Earth

4. Original publication:
Not made by humans? | Part 1, February 5, 2022, Contact Project
https://contactproject.org/?p=779

5. Searching for Interstellar Communications
by Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison
https://web.archive.org/web/20110403061008/http://www.coseti.org/morris_0.htm

6. An approximation to determine the source of the WOW! Signal
Alberto Caballero
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.06090

7. Wow! signal, Wikipedia
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal

8. “Ballad of the ‘Wow!’ Signal”, Paul H. Shuch, SETI League
http://drseti.org/audio/wow.mp3


PDF: The Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977):
download here

The Wow! Signal: Debunked or Misunderstood?

The Wow! signal, a mysterious radio transmission detected in 1977, continues to provoke debate within the astronomical community. Some claim that the signal has been debunked, primarily by a new generation of undergraduate radio astronomers working within the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). These aspiring scientists often seek to make a name for themselves by challenging existing theories and offering alternative explanations for promising SETI candidate signals.

Recent Attempts to Debunk the Wow! Signal

The latest attempt to debunk the Wow! signal stems from undergraduates involved in the Laser SETI project. They recently published a thesis arguing that the Wow! signal was a byproduct of a strong natural radio emission from a nearby star, which purportedly excited a nearby hydrogen cloud. However, this theory is fraught with problems. To elaborate, not only has this behavior never been observed in nature, but calculations also indicate that no star could emit sufficient radiation to adequately excite a hydrogen cloud to produce such a signal—this discrepancy is by an order of several magnitudes.

Celebration and Media Reaction

In response to their findings, the students involved in Laser SETI celebrated their work with accolades and disseminated their conclusions through social media platforms, claiming to have “solved” the mystery of the Wow! signal. As is often the case, the media quickly picked up this narrative, declaring the Wow! signal debunked. Millions of readers absorbed this information without questioning its validity.

Contradictions in the Hydrogen Cloud Theory

Furthermore, it is important to note that the characteristics of the Wow! signal, as it was actually detected, strongly contradict the hydrogen cloud theory. Specifically, the signal exhibited a blue shift, indicating that it was approaching Earth, a behavior that is inconsistent with the expected properties of hydrogen clouds.

The Importance of Critical Examination

In conclusion, while the search for answers continues, it is crucial to approach claims of debunking with a critical eye. The Wow! signal remains one of the most intriguing phenomena in the field of radio astronomy, prompting continued investigation and discussion. Rather than hastily dismissing it, scientists and enthusiasts alike should remain open to the numerous possibilities the Wow! signal presents, as we persist in our quest to understand the cosmos.

Questioning the Intentions of SETI Researchers

The image below is from the presentation of Laser SETI regarding the Wow! signal. Is SETI supposed to find extraterrestrial intelligence, or is it employed to obfuscate and deny every credible claim?

Laser SETI astronomers Dr. Lauren Sgro and Dr. Franck Marchis
Laser SETI astronomers Dr. Lauren Sgro and Dr. Franck Marchis, via YouTube

Look at the guys from Laser SETI grinning and giving the thumbs up sign. Whose side are they on? Do they believe that SETI serves as a lucrative venture, allowing them to conduct insignificant studies that yield no results, only to receive taxpayer funds into their bank accounts, all while feigning a diligent pursuit of truth and the advancement of humanity?

I have doubts.

Why did not ONE radio astronomer publish the Doppler calculations of the Wow! signal? Did they not even think of doing it?

Here are the equations, after 48 years:
PDF: Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977): [download here]

Could the Voyager spaceprobe make contact with an extraterrestrial intelligence sooner or later, and could the aliens trace it back to Earth?

Artwork inspired by Linda Salzman Sagan’s design for the Pioneer plaque, which aimed to communicate with extraterrestrial intelligence, commissioned by NASA: click here to view the original design

The Ocean of Time

Consider this: The cosmos is an ocean of time, vast and unfathomable. The future and the past may not be fixed shores but fluid horizons, ever-shifting. If time is a river, might there be civilizations advanced enough to navigate its currents? They could potentially voyage upstream against the flow and visit epochs long gone. Suppose such beings exist, they might step into our present, or even our yesterday, with technology that bends the fabric of spacetime itself. We can only speculate if extraterrestrial intelligence might be capable of such feats.

Messengers of Earth

Think of the Voyager probes, those celestial arks launched in 1977. They carry golden records engineered to last 5 billion years, etched with the sounds and stories of Earth. Drifting through the interstellar dark, they are destined to wander for millennia before brushing the icy fringes of the Oort Cloud, possibly to be found by extraterrestrial intelligences in the future.

Pioneers of the Unknown

And what of Pioneer 10 and 11, their plaques engraved with symbols and figures—a map to our tiny blue world? These messengers preceded Voyager by four years. They were charting a path through the unknown, potentially reaching minds skilled in decoding messages intended for extraterrestrial intelligences.

The Cosmic Recursion

Here we drift into a cosmic recursion—a loop of cause and consequence as enigmatic as time itself. Suppose it is not the distant future that answers our call, but the act of calling that creates the future. Could our probes, these fragile artifacts of hope, be both message and catalyst? A whisper that echoes backward through the aeons, compelling beings of tomorrow to seek the source of their own curiosity.

The Search for Answers

If a civilization unbound by time found Voyager or Pioneer adrift in the interstellar void, would they not use the pulsar map to trace its origin back? They could return to the blue-green world that cast it forth. And in doing so, might they not feel compelled to visit the time when it was launched? They might be drawn by the poetry of a planet daring to announce, “Here, we exist,” a statement echoing the hope of encountering extraterrestrial intelligences.

Unearthing Secrets

Imagine this: A civilization, millennia hence, unearths Voyager in the icy depths of the Oort Cloud. They decode its songs and its images of Earth’s shimmering biosphere, and wonder: Who were these beings? Did they survive their adolescence? Such reflections might prompt interaction.

Invitations to Explore

The probes, then, become not just messages but invitations. A handprint on the cave wall of spacetime, saying, “We are here. Come find us.” They serve as signals beckoning extraterrestrial intelligence to respond.

The Gift of Causality

By having declared our presence to the universe, we planted a seed in the garden of causality. Maybe a future civilization, emerging from the same evolutionary currents that shaped us, might trace their own lineage back to this moment. It was a moment when a fledgling species, trembling on the edge of self-destruction, chose instead to reach outward.

Sacred Relics?

To them, the Pioneers and Voyagers might be sacred relics, the genesis of their own yearning to explore. And so they return, pilgrims to their cradle, to ensure the message endures.

The Question of Solitude

And so we are left to wonder: Are we alone, or are we unknowingly surrounded by emissaries from tomorrow? In sending our songs and salutations into the dark, we cast a line not just across space, but through the infinite corridors of time. Who, or when, might one day tug the other end and reveal the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence?

A Silent Witness

Perhaps, even now, the answer is quietly orbiting the Sun or our planet—a silent witness to the audacity of a species. We dared to reach beyond our epoch and into the unknown.

Read more on:
The Sagan Paradox – The Contact Project
Notes about time travel – The Contact Project