EARTH TO E.T.: WE’VE GONE GHOST!

Earth once blared its presence into space with powerful radio and TV signals—then fell almost silent as we switched to digital and cable. In just a few fleeting decades, our planet’s once-booming “broadcast bubble” shrank to faint whispers, changing Earth’s radio signature. This reshapes our view of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. Discover why that brief broadcast window matters. Is it time for humankind to shift from passive listening (SETI) to actively waving hello to the stars with powerful, deliberate beacons (METI)?

1. Early Radio History and Speculation

Early radio transmissions were generally weak. Therefore, they likely did not penetrate the ionosphere. However, as technology advanced, Earth’s radio signature grew. It marked our planet’s cosmic presence.

In the early years of the twentieth century, there was speculation that Extraterrestrials were trying to contact human beings by radio signals. In 1919, Marconi himself encouraged this speculation, claiming he was receiving strange transmissions resembling Morse code, possibly from outer space.

RKO Radio Pictures Inc., commonly known as RKO, was one of the first film production and distribution companies of Hollywoods Golden Age. RKO eventually expanded its operations to include television broadcasting.

The sound played during the “A Radio Picture” logo from 1929 is Morse code.

From the beginning, their logo featured a transmission tower relaying a Morse code sequence: VVV A RADIO PICTURE VVVV. “VVV” in Morse code means “attention, incoming message”. “VVVV” may mean: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus “The Force of Truth Comes Alive”

2. The Rise of Detectable Signals

By 1931, about 25 TV stations in the U.S. were broadcasting television. And those who worry about Carl Sagan’s novel “Contact”: Germany began TV broadcasting in 1935. Any aliens watching Hitler speak in 1936 may have been more excited by Dolores Del Rio, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire and King Kong. (Picture: The special effects crew behind the set of “A Radio Picture” in 1929.)

The “Golden Age of Radio” and the subsequent rise of analog television broadcasting in the mid-20th century marked the first substantial contribution towards Earth’s technosignature. The total estimated radio power escaping into space reached tens to hundreds of megawatts by the 1970s. Powerful omnidirectional, analog signals characterized this period. This created an easily detectable “radio bubble” around Earth.

Radio power from TV signals excaping into space, reference: **A-Megawatt-Analysis-of-Anthropogenic-Emissions-into-Outer-Space-1900-2025.pdf** **(PDF 1)**

3. Earth as a Cosmic Mirror

In the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Earth’s radio emissions serve as a “cosmic mirror,” offering a tangible reference for the kinds of signals a distant, technologically advanced civilization might transmit—signals that, in turn, we might hypothetically detect.

4. The Decline of Broad Leakage

TV stations are growing, but their space-bound signal leakage is shrinking as they abandon over-the-air broadcasts. Our peak broad signal leakage—key to the Drake Equation—began falling as focused, less-leaky communication technologies emerged. This transition includes:

Satellite Communications: Becoming widespread from the 1970s and 1980s onwards, satellite transmissions are generally directed point-to-point, reducing broad leakage.
Cable Television and Fiber Optics: The increasing use of cable TV (reducing over-the-air television broadcasts) and later, fiber optic cables for a vast amount of data transmission. The internet significantly cut down on the amount of radio frequency energy escaping into space. This shift became more pronounced from the late 20th century into the 21st century.
Digital Transmissions: Analog broadcasts, which were once more easily detected, are being replaced by digital signals. These digital signals are often more compressed and less likely to leak into space, contributing to Earth becoming “radio quiet” in terms of traditional broadcast leakage.

5. A Short Critique of the Drake Equation’s “L” Parameter

The Drake equation speculates on alien civilizations. In Drake’s original formulation, people often interpret “L” as the total lifespan of a technological civilization.

*The Drake Equation, Image ©* https://sciencenotes.org, Anne Helmenstine

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals.

Earth’s broad radio leakage lasted roughly from the 1930s until the 1980s–90s.
Thus, our planet broadcast Drake-equation-style signals for only about 40–60 years.
Then we switched to spread-spectrum digital, satellite, cable, and internet communications. Now only random radar pings and digital blips leak into space, quickly blending into cosmic background noise (CMB).

A young Carl Sagan explains the Drake equation

Although the Drake equation was a playful practice in the last millennium, by its own metric humankind would no longer exist, because we don’t release significant radio leakage anymore. Hence, the Drake equation is somewhat obsolete. If Earth civilization is a typical technological civilization, then we can expect other civilizations to leave a similar footprint of “L”—about fifty years. That leaves almost no time for any astronomer to detect a signal.

Ever wondered about the Fermi paradox and why we hear nothing of our cosmic neighbors in the radio spectrum? Here is one possible explanation:

We are now almost radio silent in the cosmos!

But because our “L” was only a mean 50 years, that doesn’t mean that we are extinct! It’s just that we have upgraded our communication system. This explains why the focus of SETI is shifting, away from radio signals, towards bio signatures and other technosignatures, not just radiowaves.

The “L” (Longevity) variable in the Drake Equation is thus not a simple constant even for a single civilization.

Actually, trying to detect interstellar Extraterrestrial civilizations by radio-signatures is a futile endeavour: it’s like scrolling through static on an old TV and hoping to catch an intergalactic episode of I Love Lucy that’s been bouncing around space for a billion years. No advanced technological civilization would be using radiowaves travelling at a mere 300000 km/sec for interstellar communication. That would be like sending smoke signals across the ocean. The only alien radiowaves we can ever hope to receive are leaked planetary signals and possibly navigational beacons.

6. Analysis of Earth’s Current Radio Signature

The latest study on Earth’s radiosignature is from Sofia Z. Sheikh et al 2025 AJ 169 118: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

Sheikh calculated the detectability of four types of radio emissions from Earth. One conclusion was that an observer can detect planetary radar (Arecibo message from 1975) from the greatest distance. This graphic exemplifies this:

For simplification, I have translated the graph from Sheikh’s study. Labels are written out and “AU” are converted into light-years and kilometers.

Sheikh overlooks that the Arecibo radar message was highly directional—only detectable along its precisely aimed, narrow path.

The Arecibo Message

The “Arecibo message” from 1974 lasted only 168 seconds. Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and the other organizers of the boadcast did make it clear that the message was intended not as a genuine attempt to contact extraterrestrials, but as a symbolic demonstration of human technological capability.

The Arecibo telescope in December 2021. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Any serious attempt at communication with ETI would have required using Arecibo to send continuous signals into space, not just for three minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arecibo_message

Arecibo telescope after its collapse (December 2021). Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Altogether, humankind sent two dozen messages intended for an extraterrestrial audience into space from different telescopes. The total combined efforts in all of history to contact Extraterrestrial civilizations amounted to a measly 62.7 hours of transmissions. Not even three days. That is almost nothing in the billions of years of history of the universe, or life on Earth.
Ref.: Major METI transmissions (PDF 2)

The Arecibo message, with its directional 20 trillion watts (450 kw actual), was sent to the globular cluster M13, 25,000 light-years away. But calculations indicate the signal only penetrates about 12 000 light-years before the interstellar medium (ISM) absorbs it. Pity—what a clever demonstration of human technological prowess that was.

7. Breakdown of Earth’s Transmission- and Key Signal Types

Directional transmission (METI )– you choose a known exoplanet or promising star, minimizing exposure of one’s civilization by targeting needles in haystack, amongst 300- 500 million stars. Takes forever. That is the current strategy, based on the Dark Forest Hypothesis.
Omnidirectional transmission (unintentional METI) – “everyone in the Galaxy” can eavesdrop; historically Earth’s leakage (TV, Radio and nuclear expolsions) was unintended METI.

Mobile Communication Leakage (omnidirectional): The Sheikh paper addressed leakage from LTE cellphone communication systems. Researchers estimate the impressive peak power leaking into space from mobile towers is approximately 4 GW. This pales into insignificance when we realize that an observer can only detect these signals from up to about 4 light-years away.
Planetary Radar (highly directional): Many radio telescopes can function as radar systems—for example, to measure the distances of Solar System planets or distant asteroids and to assess their probability of impacting Earth. And for about 62.7 hours these systems have also been used to send messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations.

The following key signal types were omitted from the study on Earth’s radio technosignatures in the Sheikh paper:

Television Signals (omnidirectional): Earth’s early Radio and TV bubble was omnidirectional. An observer can detect it in every direction. An extraterrestrial audience could theoretically detect analog television signals—which began broadcasting in the 1930s—from up to 111 light-years away, representing a historical “radio bubble” of our planet’s past emissions. Broadcasters transmitted these signals, which operated in the VHF and UHF ranges, with megawatts of power.
Radio Signals (omnidirectional): In contrast, AM and FM radio signals, do not penetrate into space as effectively as higher-frequency signals. While they are powerful enough for terrestrial reception, their intensity diminishes rapidly with distance, limiting their ability to escape Earth’s immediate vicinity into deep space.
Radar (directional): The post–World War II era saw significant, continuous growth in radar systems—military, air-traffic-control, and weather—which, despite their pulsed nature, delivered consistently high average power thanks to their high operating frequencies and widespread deployment. By the 2000s, radar emissions into space were estimated at several hundred megawatts. Radar is not omnidirectional. If ETI had instrumentation comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), they might detect our radar transmissions from distances up to approximately 300 light-years.
Military Radar (directional): Military radar systems are among the most powerful signals intentionally emitted from Earth. While specific power levels are often not publicly detailed, they are generally described as “significant”. A key characteristic of military radar is its directionality. These signals are designed to be highly directional, focusing their energy into narrow beams to achieve precise detection and tracking of targets. This focused power allows them to be very strong within their beam, making them highly detectable if an extraterrestrial observer is precisely aligned with that beam.
Nuclear Explosions (omnidirectional): Humankind has detonated 2,000 nuclear bombs since 1945. The Russian Tsar Bomba of 1961 was the most powerful, and its radio emissions were ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo message.

Using the link-budget formula (PDF 3), we calculate that the Tsar Bomb electromagnetic pulse (PDF 4) could have been (or will be) detected by advanced radiotelescope technology (SKA2) out to roughly 36,000 light-years.

Looking ahead, the capabilities of a more highly advanced extraterrestrial civilization might extend that range to about 1.17 million light-years. That is enough to encompass the volume of the Milky Way, which is estimated to contain 300–500 million habitable planets. Several dwarf galaxies also lie within this volume of space. The thermonuclear Tsar Bomb explosion was by far the strongest radio signal that Earth has ever sent into space.

SETI scientists argue that the short duration of nuclear electromagnetic pulses makes their detection unlikely. That may have been true if those EMP had been the only radio pulses coming from Earth. But as a matter of fact, Earth had been making waves for decades before the barrage of nuclear tests ended. The expanding TV and radio bubble made sure of that. And those broadcasts transmitted 24/7.

8. Challenges of Interstellar Detection: Signal Degradation and Cosmic Noise

How Space Wears Down Radio Signals: Distance and the Interstellar Medium
The journey of any radio signal across 10,000 light-years is governed by the inverse square law, which causes a dramatic reduction in signal intensity. Beyond simple weakening, the interstellar medium (ISM) acts as a complex distorting filter. The ISM gas between the stars can spread out a broadband signal over time. Tiny variations in electron density scatter the waves. That scattering not only stretches the signal in time and space but also produces rapid, unpredictable flickers in intensity. These scintillations can make a message impossible to decode. Such distortions get much worse at lower frequencies. That is why astronomers favor the 1–10 GHz “microwave window”, the best range for sending signals across interstellar space.

The Cosmic Veil: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
Space isn’t silent—it’s alive with radio chatter. From our Sun’s booming broadcasts to distant black holes belting out jets of particles, the universe drips with natural “noise.” that can easily mask any deliberate signal we send or hope to detect. Any terrestrial signal must be distinguished from the overwhelming natural radio background of the cosmos. This background includes pervasive sources like the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which establishes a fundamental noise floor, and galactic background noise from synchrotron radiation. And are pulsars natural phenomena, mimicking certain characteristics of intelligent signals, or are they intelligent signals, misunderstood by humankinds igorance of the engineering capapilities of a Kardashev type III and IV ciilization? These questions pose a significant challenge for recognition.

9. Conclusion: The Reality of Interstellar Eavesdropping

The Hypothetical Tech Needed for Extraterrestrial Eavesdropping
For an extraterrestrial civilization to detect Earth’s radio technosignature from 10,000 light-years, it would require radio astronomy technology vastly superior to current human capabilities.

This would likely involve collecting areas orders of magnitude larger than our most powerful telescopes (potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of Arecibo-sized dishes), coupled with extremely low system temperatures (achieved through cryogenic cooling), wide bandwidths, and very long integration times to achieve the necessary signal-to-noise ratio.

The Real Odds: Why Earth’s Radio Shouts Are Mostly Whispers Across the Galaxy
In conclusion, while the theoretical detectability of Earth’s most powerful, directed radio emissions extends to galactic distances, the practical challenges of signal attenuation, interstellar distortion, and overwhelming cosmic noise mean that the vast majority of Earth’s radio footprint remains localized. The successful detection of Earth’s intelligent signal from 10,000 light-years would signify an extraordinary level of technological advancement on the part of the observing extraterrestrial civilization, far surpassing humanity’s current capabilities. This underscores the profound difficulty in interstellar communication and provides critical perspective for humanity’s ongoing search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

Tired of Waiting for E.T. to Call?
It’s Time to Make the First Move.

Our civilization’s radio tech signature offers a stark revelation: waiting passively to be discovered is a strategy doomed by the physics of communication and the trajectory of technology. Our own history serves as a cosmic mirror, reflecting the likely silence of other advanced societies. The prospects of being detected by chance are remarkably slim; our most powerful, intentional messages have been mere momentary shouts aimed with laser-like precision at impossibly small targets. Simultaneously, our best chance for accidental discovery—the omnidirectional “radio bubble”…is rapidly fading as we become more efficient and, consequently, “radio quiet.”

Cosmic Mirror

If we accept this fleeting, whispering technological phase as typical, we must conclude that waiting for another civilization’s leaky signals is as futile as them waiting for ours. The Great Silence may not be a lack of life, but a universe of civilizations that, like us, have outgrown noisy, inefficient broadcasting.

This realization demands a shift in strategy. To stand any chance of being detected, or of detecting others, we must embrace Active METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). We cannot hope to find a needle in a cosmic haystack by chance; we must listen for the magnets. By understanding that we would need to build a powerful, sustained, and deliberate beacon to announce our presence, the cosmic mirror shows us precisely what we should be searching for. Committing to an active, intentional transmission is therefore not just an act of introduction; it is the most logical step toward refining our own search, transforming our understanding of our own limitations into the very tool needed to finally detect a kindred signal in the void.

This article presented new independent research on Earth’s historical radio signature in the cosmos, the total duration and strength of modern METI transmissions and -by comparison- the detectability of thermonuclear explosions by extraterrestrial civilizations.

Erich Habich-Traut

References used in this text:

May 28, 2025June 22, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 8: The Cosmic Gold Rush

CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM
For generations, the night sky was a canvas of glittering uncertainty. We gazed upon it, pondered our solitude, and whispered the profound question: Are we alone in the habitable universe? For decades, our answers were mere philosophical musings, tethered by limited data and a rather quaint, Earth-centric view of the cosmos. But that era is over. We stand at the precipice of a new understanding, a scientific awakening that paints a truly breathtaking picture of a universe teeming with possibility.

© A real photograph by astrophotographer **Jheison Huerta**, displayed with permission

Decoding Destiny: Sagan and the Drake Equation’s Dawn

Once, the Drake Equation – our grand cosmic census – was a theoretical construct, its variables educated guesses in the twilight of astronomical knowledge. Carl Sagan first met Drake and his famous Equation in 1961—it constitutes a framework to estimate the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Sagan, then a young graduate student, became a lifelong advocate for the equation’s optimistic interpretations.

Sagan’s Vision Meets Silicon: Certainty Replaces Cosmic Guesses

Based on the Drake equation, Sagan postulated between 1,000 and 1,000,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan, a visionary, frequently referenced the Drake Equation in his work and often used the original 1961 estimates, peering through the cosmic fog. (But also updated the numbers as new data emerged.) But today, the fog has lifted. The digital revolution, coupled with an explosion in space-faring technology, has ushered in a golden age of discovery, transforming those guesses into empirical certainties.

Exoplanet Explosion: Planets are Everywhere!

The Drake Equation, Copyright by https://sciencenotes.org

Consider the sheer scale. In 1992, the very first exoplanet was found. It was a singular pearl in a cosmic oyster. Now, less than three decades later, missions like Kepler and TESS have opened the floodgates! We’ve tallied nearly 6,000 confirmed worlds (Reference) orbiting distant stars – each a potential cosmic frontier. This staggering avalanche of data tells us something profound: planets are not a rarity; they are the rule. The fraction of stars with planets (fp) is no longer a hopeful guess of 50%; it’s closer to 100%! Every star you see twinkling above likely harbors its own planetary system.

Cosmic Oases: Billions of Habitable Worlds Beckon

And within these systems, the number of potentially habitable worlds (ne) is far from a mere statistical blip. Our own Milky Way galaxy alone, that majestic spiral of stars we call home, is now estimated to contain 300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets (Reference). Multiply that by the latest, mind-bending estimate of 2 trillion (or 2000 billion) galaxies (Reference) in the observable universe, and you’re looking at hundreds of billions of billions of cosmic oases!

A Sextillion Planets: Life’s Galactic Revolution

300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets multiplied by 2 trillion galaxies amounts to 600 billion billion to 1000 billion billion habitable planets. In other words, there are 600 qintillion to 1 sextillion potentially habitable planets in the cosmos.

This isn’t just an increase; it’s a galactic revolution in our baseline understanding of where life could arise.

Beyond Homeworlds: Rethinking Civilization’s Lifespan

But here’s where the possibilities truly explode – the “L” factor, the length of time a civilization releases detectable signals. Early calculations often assumed that civilizations were tied to their home world, vulnerable to asteroid impacts, climate change, or even self-destruction. This would lead to a tragically short “L,” perhaps a few thousand years. But for a truly advanced civilization, one that masters stellar energies, perhaps even galactic resources, simply staying put on one fragile world is a cosmic folly.

Cosmic Nomads: Galactic Colonization Extends ‘L’

Single Planet vs Multi System Civilizations

Frank Drake’s original formula makes no allowance for the ability of technological civilizations to colonize other planets or solar systems.

But as soon as another world is colonized, the chance of survival increases. Therefore far more older technical civilizations with space faring capability than Sagan originally assumed may exist.

A short critique of the Drake equation as commonly understood:

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals. Earth itself has released easily detectable radio and TV signals for only 40 to 60 years before switching to spread spectrum digital communication, satellite, cable and internet. The signals that Earth is still leaking into space are random and repeating pings and blips from powerful radar, and unintelligible signals from digital sources that blend into the cosmic background noise (CMB).

Galactic Empires in a Blink: The Kardashev Scale Beckons

A civilization with space-faring capability, even one moving at a fraction of light speed, could colonize its entire galaxy in a mere 5 to 50 million years. In the cosmic timescale of billions of years, this is but the blink of an eye!

Blink Of An Eye

Colonization acts as a cosmic insurance policy, diversifying risk and extending the effective “lifetime” of a civilization from millennia to millions, even billions of years. This utterly transforms the “N” in the Drake Equation, suggesting a universe far more populated with ancient, thriving civilizations than we dared to dream. We’re talking about the emergence of Kardashev Type I, Type II, Type III and even Type IV civilizations – those that harness the power of their planet, their star, their galaxy or even the entire universe!

The Great Cosmic Silence: Unraveling the Fermi Paradox

Of course, the cosmic riddle persists: The Fermi Paradox. If the universe is so abundant with life, where is everybody? The silence, the eerie quiet of the cosmos, has led to theories like the “Great Filter” – a bottleneck that prevents life from reaching advanced stages, either in our past (making us incredibly rare) or, more ominously, in our future (a catastrophic universal speed bump). Or perhaps the “Rare Earth Hypothesis,” suggesting our planet’s specific conditions for complex life are extraordinarily unique.

Echoes of Advanced Life? Or a Cosmic Sanctuary Awaits?

But even these daunting questions now inspire a different kind of optimism. Perhaps the “Great Filter” lies behind us, making our existence all the more triumphant. Perhaps extraterrestrial civilizations are so vastly more advanced (Type III-IV) that their communications are simply beyond our current comprehension, a cosmic symphony we lack the instruments to hear.

And maybe the answer to the Fermi paradox is another: THE SANCTUARY HYPOTHESIS- coming soon.

The Quest Continues: A Universe Primed for Discovery

The search for ETI is no longer a fringe endeavor; it is a fundamental “market research” initiative into the ultimate cosmic landscape. The data is overwhelmingly in favor of abundance. The universe is a grand laboratory, a vast stage for the emergence of life and intelligence. And as we continue to unlock its secrets, each new discovery amplifies the profound conviction that we are not alone. The grandest adventure of all is just beginning.

“Billions and Billions”: The Catchphrase That Captured the Cosmos

One Sagan: The iconic catchphrase, “billions and billions,” was popularized by **comedian Johnny Carson**, who hosted *The Tonight Show*. Carson frequently did affectionate parodies of Sagan, mimicking his voice and intellectual demeanor, and in these skits, he would often quip, “billions and billions!”

This parody was so pervasive and well-loved that it became the phrase most people associated with Sagan, even though he didn’t originally say it that way. Sagan himself acknowledged this humorous invention by Carson and even titled his final book, published posthumously in 1997, ***Billions and Billions: Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium***, playfully embracing the phrase that had become his popular legacy.

Carl Sagan (Cosmos) Parody by Johnny Carson (1980)

Million to Billion convertor

May 24, 2025May 25, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 7: The UFO controversy

Sagan’s UFO Paradox: Fostering Scientific Rigor Through Skepticism and Advocacy

A landmark event highlighted the Carl Sagan UFO controversy: the 1969 symposium he co-organized for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This meeting notably brought together leading UFO proponents, such as J. Allen Hynek.

Cameo of J. Allen Hynek in “Close Encounters Of The Third Kind”, an UFO encounter category he defined himself..

The meeting also included prominent skeptics, like the first theoretical astronomer of the United States, Donald Menzel. In 1968, Menzel testified before the U.S. House Committee on Science and Astronautics – Symposium on UFOs, stating that he, Menzel, considered all UFO sightings to have natural explanations.

While critics accused Sagan of legitimizing what they considered a “pseudoscience,” Sagan defended the AAAS symposium. He argued that significant public interest in UFOs warranted serious scientific scrutiny.

Carl Sagan was a prominent advocate for the search for extraterrestrial life. Yet, he remained a skeptic regarding Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) as evidence of alien visitation. This seemingly contradictory stance fueled the ongoing debate between UFO skeptics and believers. This is often referred to as the Carl Sagan UFO controversy.

Sagan’s influence on UFO studies produced its most significant beneficial effect by pushing researchers to ground their investigations more firmly in scientific methods. This emphasis on rigor contributed to the emergence of two distinct categories of researchers in the field.

SKEPTICS VS. BELIEVERS: The Secret War Over UFOs

A: Serious UAP researchers who set themselves the goal of identifying and cataloging UFOs, with the main focus on the assumption that there can be no extraterrestrial UFOs. Their focus was on finding conventional, or “banal,” explanations for sightings. They aimed to demystify the phenomenon and bring it within the realm of established science. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy played a role in how these explanations were pursued.

B: Marginalized Fringe UFO researchers, who in contrast remained open to, or actively pursued, the hypothesis of extraterrestrial intelligence behind UFO sightings found themselves increasingly on the periphery. This group, while not necessarily uncritical or prone to accepting every hoax, was willing to explore unconventional explanations. These were explanations that the “serious” camp often dismissed outright.

UAP or UFO? The Government’s Sneaky Word Game to HIDE the Extraterrestrial Truth!

The contemporary preference for the term UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon or Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) rather than UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) starkly reflects the divide between serious and fringe research.

While both terms essentially refer to the same core mystery—observed objects or phenomena in the sky that are not immediately identifiable—’UAP’ has gained traction among those seeking to legitimize their research. They want to avoid the cultural baggage and stigma associated with ‘UFOs,’ which are often colloquially synonymous with alien spacecraft. This shift is part of the Carl Sagan UFO controversy, as different terminologies affect the perception of research.

Researchers, particularly those affiliated with governmental or academic institutions, often opt for ‘UAP’ to protect their professional reputations. They use it to signal a more data-driven, agnostic approach, free from preconceived notions of extraterrestrial involvement.

“BANAL” OR ALIEN? Inside the Bitter Feud Splitting UFO Hunters in Two!

The comparison between a case like the authors “Mufon UFO case #111680” and a frame from the Pentagon’s “Gimbal UAP” video can illustrate this division:

A MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) case, typically investigated by citizen researchers often aligned with the “fringe” category (though MUFON itself has varying methodologies), might present evidence and interpretations that lean towards or explicitly suggest an extraordinary (extraterrestrial) origin.

A government source released the “Gimbal” video, and serious UAP researchers—including military and intelligence analysts—analyzed it. They discussed its flight characteristics, sensor data, and possible but elusive mundane explanations. Although they acknowledge the video’s anomalous nature, they focus their rigorous approach on ruling out known technologies or natural phenomena.

In contrast, the “fringe” perspective may treat the footage as evidence supporting an extraterrestrial hypothesis. But this is due to careful consideration.

Unusual Flight Characteristics in Navy’s 2015 Gimbal UAP Sighting

A study by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff analyzes the Gimbal UAP video.

“FRINGE” RESEARCHERS FIGHT BACK

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. As a result, these inquiries were pushed to the margins. This is a key part of what makes the Carl Sagan UFO controversy so enduring.

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. Consequently, such inquiries were pushed to the margins.

PHOTO PROOF? 1947 UFO vs. Pentagon’s “Gimbal” UAP

Similarities. Left: 1947 – first modern UFO sighting, Kenneth Arnold
Right: 2015 – Pentagon Gimbal UAP. © ContactProject.org 25. May 2025

SAGAN’S PARADOX: Did His “Science First” Rule KILL the Search for Alien Life?

Was Sagan a hero of reason—or did his skepticism accidentally suppress the truth? The ongoing debate and the terminological distinctions highlight this enduring tension between cautious, mainstream scientific inquiry and the persistent, more speculative allure of the unknown inherent in the UFO/UAP enigma. Discussions continue over his role and influence in shaping public perception and scientific investigation of unexplained aerial phenomena. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy exemplifies this tension.

April 20, 2025May 5, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 1: The Golden Record

Introduction and Carl Sagan’s Early Work

Artwork inspired by Linda Salzman Sagan’s design for the Pioneer plaque, commissioned by NASA: click here view the original design

Carl Sagan (1934–1996) was an American astronomer, astrobiologist, and author. After NASA was founded in 1958, Sagan became a consultant for the agency. His first job involved planning the explosion of an atomic bomb on the moon, the A119 project. Highly controversial, to say the least. In 1961, at the age of 27, he published a study on the atmosphere of Venus. In 1970 he researched the conditions that could lead to the emergence of life in the cosmos on distant planets. To achieve this, he exposed frequently occurring elements to the UV radiation of a young sun and observed how amino acids, the building blocks of life, were formed from them. Carl Sagan became a full professor at the astronomy department at Cornell University. Around this time, talk shows began inviting him as a popular guest to discuss the possibility of extraterrestrial life.

Reference: Carl Sagan, Long wavelength ultraviolet photoproduction of amino acids on the primitive Earth

“Hello, Aliens!”: Voyager Probes Get Sagan’s First Broadcast

In 1972 and 1977, Carl Sagan sent the first messages to extraterrestrials into space on the panels of the space probes Pioneer 10 & 11 and the Golden Record of Voyager 1 & 2.

The gold-plated aluminum cover (L) of the Voyager golden record (R) both protects it from micrometeorite bombardment and also provides a key to playing it and deciphering Earth’s location. NASA

It contains greetings and wishes for peace from the people of Earth in 55 languages. Earthlings extend their friendship, wish happiness and health, and express hope to one day meet their cosmic neighbors. They also express the desire for goodwill and harmony among all beings in the universe.

Reference: Golden Record Greetings – NASA Science

Each of the Voyager spacecraft, launched in 1977, carried a golden phonograph record. One of its purposes was to send a message to extraterrestrials who might find the spacecraft as it journeyed through interstellar space.

The greetings are in alphabetical order, from Akkadian (an extinct language for over 2000 years) to Wu Chinese. The inclusion of Akkadian in this earthly record is pretty strange. One day, these transmissions might be intercepted as they pass through space by an alien culture.

Voyager’s ‘Cosmic Map’ Of Earth’s Location Is Hopelessly Wrong

With the help of the included pulsar map, these aliens could potentially find Earth. Pulsars are stars that rhythmically emit radiation, like interstellar lighthouses. We can use them as a cosmic GPS.

Pulsar GPS: Sagan’s Star-Beacon Timecode Reveals 1971 Earth

Over long periods of time, the frequency of a pulsar slows down. Thus the pulsar map designed by scientist Frank Drake and graphic artist Linda Salzman Sagan is not only a determination of the position of our Earth in space, but the map also precisely pinpoints the position of Earth in time: 1971.

What if a prospective alien civilization has or develops the ability to time travel? What would they do with the information provided by our space probes?

Speculation about the subject makes for the greatest sci-fi story ever told. This is particularly true when we consider the included Mesopotamian-language greeting and the Annunaki creation myths—some of which have been popularized by Zecharia Sitchin and others.

Of course, intercepting our space probes is extremely unlikely. It could take millions of years, if at all. But then again, the life expectancy of the Golden Records is 5 billion years.

May 4, 2025May 5, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 2: Extraordinary Claims and the Bermuda Triangle

“Extraordinary?” Sagan’s 1977 Standard Stuns UFO Dreamers

In 1977, when the film “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” was released, Washington Post readers first heard of the “Sagan Standard”: that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.“

Carl Sagan uttered this aphorism in relation to the first film scene. In the scene, planes were found in the Sahara which years earlier disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle. The notion of extraordinary claims was central to Sagan’s skepticism about extraterrestrial causes.

“There is no evidence that lights in the sky or the disappearance of ships or planes are due to extraterrestrial interference (in the Bermuda Triangle)”, Sagan said.

Reference: Second View, Sagan on ‘Encounters’

NEW YORK — Carl Sagan, the 43-year-old glamor boy of astronomy, is hunched down in the fifth row of the Ziegfeld Theater on West 54th Street, waiting for the five o’clock matinee to roll. Whoooooosh! A sandstorm rages across the screen, enveloping viewers in a yellow haze.

Bermuda Triangle Bombshell: Planes, Submarines & Atomic Mystery

Bermuda Triangle, 1986:
Nine years later, in the shadowy depths of the North Atlantic, the Russian nuclear submarine K-219 vanished beneath the waves. It left a chilling mystery in its wake. As the vessel settled silently on the ocean floor—nearly 18,000 feet (5.5 kilometers) below the surface—a more disturbing discovery emerged. The submarine’s full arsenal of nuclear warheads had inexplicably disappeared, raising extraordinary claims about what might have occurred.

Any attempt to retrieve or remove the warheads should have been impossible at such an unfathomable depth. It was beyond the reach of all human technology in 1986. Yet, the weapons had vanished nonetheless, leaving behind only unanswered questions and a silence as deep as the ocean itself.

Official records claim that the catastrophic incident aboard K-219 took place hundreds of miles from the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. This spot was the very location where the lost submarine ultimately came to rest (Wikipedia).

Yet this contradiction is curious, to say the least, inviting extraordinary claims and speculations.

Deep-Sea Riddle: Vanished Russian Nukes Hide Under Triangle

Consult the Marine Gazetteer Map, and you’ll notice a small dot nestled between Miami and Bermuda. This is the location of the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. In other words, it is inside the notorious Bermuda Triangle.

Science moves forward through doubt, evidence, and the enduring patience to pursue both. But in a case like this, extraordinary claims about the vanished nukes cannot help but intrigue those. These claims make people wonder what secrets still lie hidden beneath those mysterious waters.

Location of the sunk Russian nuclear submarine K-219. Until now, no publication has linked it’s sinking and the disappearance of it’s nuclear arsenal to the presence of the Bermuda Triangle.

Cosmos Mania: Sagan Turns the Universe into Prime-Time TV

In 1980 the name Sagan finally became a household name when Carl presented his extraordinarily successful TV series “Cosmos.”

The series covered topics ranging from the origin of life to a perspective of our place in the universe.

The Sagan Standard, first phrased in the Washington Post article from December 1977, that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” became the mantra of the series. Carl claimed that nearly every UFO sighting is based on optical illusions and misinterpretations.

Carl Sagan wrote regarding UFO claims:

“When confronted with a claim for which there is no compelling evidence, we should reserve judgment. I know of no evidence for visits to Earth by beings from other worlds.”

– Carl Sagan

May 4, 2025May 5, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 3: Skepticism and Egyptian Mysticism

UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar

Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)

Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.

Further reading: UFO Truth: Witnesses, Speak Out!

Witnesses should be allowed to stay anonymous, but non-anonymous testimony should be prioritized.

Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals

Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.

Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.

The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.

THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism

Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.

Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.

And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.

The symbol of the Sphinx Head Tomb Secret Society, Cornell University

What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.

Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.

Reference: Lessons of Immortality and Mortality From My Father, Carl Sagan

What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.

May 4, 2025May 25, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 5: Cosmos Eating Space Probes and Sagan’s Response

SELF-REPLICATING PROBES

In the context of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Search, in 1980 the mathematical physicist and cosmologist Frank J. Tipler published a paper, “Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist.”

Reference: Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist, Tipler, F. J.

Tipler sought a universal principle to explain the Fermi Paradox: the apparent absence of extraterrestrial beings on Earth. He contended that if extraterrestrial intelligent beings existed, then their manifestations would be obvious. Conversely, since there is no evidence of their presence, they do not exist.

Frank Tipler argued that if any extraterrestrial civilization ever built self-replicating von Neumann starprobes, those probes would grow exponentially. They would fill the galaxy in a few million years. Since we don’t see them here, Tipler concluded there are no other intelligent civilizations.

• Tipler assumed each probe would land on a new world and make just one or a few copies before moving on. However, he had no reason to limit its reproduction so drastically.

• Even if each probe were only 10 grams and doubled once per decade, in about 150 generations we’d have the mass of an entire galaxy. This conversion to machines would be on the order of 1 followed by 54 zeros grams (1 quindecillion tons). Moreover, this transformation would occur in less than 15 million years.

• Because we see no evidence of such galaxy-eating machines anywhere, Tipler said no one else ever invented them. Therefore, no one else is out there.

SAGAN’S RESPONSE

Carl Sagan pondered the arithmetic of Tipler’s solipsist argument. His response is a classic in the realm of science and philosophy. He draws attention to the limitations of our current knowledge and the vastness of the universe. By stating, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Sagan cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t know.

Sagan and William I. Newman challenged Tipler’s assumptions and conclusions, proposing a more realistic colonization model based on population growth and organization. This alternative model estimates a galaxy-crossing time of approximately one billion years, significantly longer than Tipler’s few million years.

Sagan further suggests that self-replicating probes are subject to evolutionary divergence, imposing unacceptable risks to altruistic extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI). The ETI only communicate with other ETI through signals. This argument assumes that self-replicating machines are essentially uncontrollable because they must evolve.

Sagan and Newman also propose that the emergence of powerful weapons of mass destruction may impose a universal brake on unchecked expansion. This could potentially limit the spread of advanced civilizations. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of experimentation in resolving the Fermi Paradox. Systematic searches using radio telescopes and other tools are necessary to settle the question of whether we are alone in the universe.

Reference: The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Sagan / Newman 1983QJRAS..24..113S Page 113

Terrestrial Shortsightedness

Imagine New York in 1894, its streets choked with the clatter of hooves. Its futurists were drowned in calculations of manure. They predicted that by 1944 New York would drown in horse manure.

The futurists only saw linearity: more carriages, more waste, an apocalypse of filth. However, they could not fathom the silent revolution already stirring—the internal combustion engine, the horseless carriage—a paradigm shift that would render their equations relics.

So too might we falter when envisioning the starfarers of tomorrow. To assume interstellar travel or contact must devour suns is to chain possibility to the physics of this moment. What of the technologies unimagined? The spacetime shortcuts, the dark energy harnessed, the self-replicating probes born of nanoengineering? The cosmos whispers of mysteries we have yet to decode.

Carl Sagan may have cautioned Tipler that his reasoning could mirror that of the horse-cart prophets. One may fail to see beyond the boundaries of the known. The universe is not merely a puzzle to solve with present tools. It is also a frontier that reshapes the solver. As we once tamed fire and split the atom, so too might we one day dance with the fabric of spacetime itself. The answer to the Fermi paradox may not lie in the scarcity of civilizations. It may lie in the humility of our assumptions.

After all, the stars are not merely endpoints. They are teachers. Their greatest lesson might be this: To traverse the light-years, we must first learn to think in ways as boundless as the dark between galaxies.

Reference: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were drowning in horse manure. The London Times predicted in 1894 that in 50 years’ time, every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.