The Signal

A Science Fiction Short Story: In a universe filled with mysteries, the discovery of an extraterrestrial signal could change everything.

Chapter 1: The Question

Ray Faser leaned back in his chair, fingers steepled, staring at the projection of Earth’s nuclear test history—a timeline of detonations stretching from 1945 to 1996. The data pulsed like a slow, irregular heartbeat.

Two thousand nuclear blasts. Each one had sent an electromagnetic scream (EMP) into the void.

On the other side of the screen, Dr. Elias Varen, a senior astrophysicist with the SETI Institute, adjusted his glasses.
“You’re suggesting we’ve already announced ourselves.”

Ray consulted a printout and smirked.

A thermonuclear bomb blast in 1961 emitted 10 billion times more radio waves than the Arecibo message. Click to view the calculations (PDF).

“I’m saying we lit a bonfire in the ‘Dark Forest‘. And now we’re whispering ‘Hello?’ like we’re afraid of being rude.”

Varen exhaled. “The difference is intent. A nuclear EMP is noise. A structured message is a handshake.”

Ray leaned forward. “You think an advanced civilization hears a thousand atomic explosions and thinks, ‘Hmm, must be background radiation’? They’ll know what it is. And they’ll know it’s dangerous.”

Chapter 2: The UAP Variable

The Pentagon’s recent disclosures hung between them like an unspoken specter. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena—craft defying known physics, lingering in Earth’s skies for decades.

Ray tapped the table. “If they’re already here, silence isn’t caution. It’s stupidity. We should be sending ‘We come in peace’ in every frequency we’ve got.”

Varen’s jaw tightened. “Or we’re confirming we’re a threat. Nuclear weapons, uncontrolled emissions—what if they’re waiting to see if we grow up?”

“Or waiting to see if we shoot first,” Ray countered. “The Dark Forest isn’t just a theory. It’s a mirror. We’re the ones who nuked ourselves two thousand times. We’re the predators.”

Chapter 3: The Silence Gambit

A new voice cut in—Dr. Elena Papadakis, a xenopsychologist. “Assume they have detected us. Silence could be read as hostility. A predator hiding.”

Varen shook his head. “Or prudence.”

Ray laughed bitterly. “Prudence? We’re ostriches. Heads in the sand, asses in the air.”

He pulled up the latest UAP footage—a tic-tac object maneuvering at Mach 10. “They aren’t hiding. Why are we?”

Chapter 4: The Decision

The room fell quiet. The screen flickered, overlaying Earth’s radio bubble—expanding at light speed for a century, a glowing sphere of TV broadcasts, radar pings, and nuclear EMPs that might just serve as an unintended extraterrestrial signal.

Elena broke the silence. “If they’re here, they already know who we are. The question isn’t if we signal. It’s what we say.”

Ray leaned back. “How about ‘We’re not all psychopaths’?”

Varen didn’t smile. “Or we prove it.”

Outside, the stars burned cold and distant. Waiting.

Epilogue: The First Message

Three months later, the Arecibo successor array sent a single, repeating sequence toward a UAP hotspot.

Not mathematics. Not science.

Music.
Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy.”

A handshake—or a plea.

The Dark Forest listened.

——————-

Author’s note
The character of Ray Faser (and his author) have been waiting for reactivation ever since their first and last appearance in a short science-fiction story in a school newspaper in 1979.

Reference:
The history of nuclear testing began early on the morning of 16 July 1945 at a desert test site in Alamogordo, New Mexico when the United States exploded its first atomic bomb. In the five decades between that fateful day in 1945 and the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were carried out all over the world.
https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-nuclear-tests-day/history

Arecibo message power vs Tsar Bomba Calculation
(Nuclear bomb sent 10 billion times more radio waves into space than Arecibo.) (PDF) Arecibo message power vs Tsar Bomba Calculation

—————————-
#fypシ゚

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 6: Summary

“Alien lifeforms would visit Earth only if life in the universe is rare,
but then there wouldn’t be enough alien visitors to explain the countless UFO reports.”

The “Sagan Paradox” was first formulated in 1969 at an American symposium on the UFO phenomenon in Boston. Carl Sagan and Thornton Page served as co-chairs of this event, which was sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The title of the symposium was:
UFOs – The Scientific Debate

It was here that the renowned astrophysicist Carl Sagan advanced an argument that was meant to explain why there could be no extraterrestrially manned “flying saucers.”

The Boston War Memorial Auditorium, site of the AAAS symposium in December 26.-28. Dec. 1969

Carl Sagan argued that the Earth had to be somehow special in the cosmos to attract the attention of aliens. The special position of the Earth is its life on it, which Sagan said is very rare in the cosmos.

Because life in the cosmos is so rare, according to Carl Sagan, there are not enough extraterrestrial civilizations in the vicinity of the Earth to visit us in the huge numbers that the thousands of UFO sightings every year since 1947 suggest (~2312 yearly).

On the other hand, if there were actually as many alien civilizations as the number of sightings suggests, then life on Earth would not be special, and our planet would therefore not be worth visiting with a spaceship.

As a result, UFOs controlled by aliens could not exist but are exclusively false alerts, implied Sagan.


Mock-up and additional enhancement of the famous British Calvine UFO photo, after Nick Pope. The original six photos are in color. The MOD has blocked their release until 2072. Wikipedia

The core of this paradox, as presented by Sagan, lies in the tension between the potential number of advanced technical civilizations in the galaxy and the lack of convincing evidence for frequent visits to Earth.

To Carl Sagan, witness evidence for UFOs was not robust scientific proof as it could be attributed to human fallibilities such as emotional desire, boredom, paranoia, and intolerance for ambiguity, leading to self-deception and the misinterpretation of ordinary phenomena.

And photographs?
Sagan found UFO photographs unconvincing due to their poor quality, ease of manipulation, lack of physical evidence, and the influence of psychological and cultural factors, all failing to meet the high standards required for extraordinary claims under the scientific method.

Whatever other opinions Carl Sagan may have held privately, this was his public verdict of UFO phenomena. It shaped the discussion on UFOs for almost half a century.

This argument, called “Sagan’s Paradox” by some, helped create a new school of thought in science: the belief that extraterrestrial life exists but cannot have anything to do with UFOs!

Sagan was convinced that given the number of stars in the universe – “billions and billions” as he used to say – the chances are very high that highly developed civilizations must exist. He simply doubted that emissaries from these civilizations had a habit of appearing at distant farms or above Uncle Fritz’s garden, as popular reports often claimed.

Speaking of the back garden

UFO sighting by Dennis & Mandy. The object was seen within just a few meters from the backyard of the authors house. The author didn’t see this UFO, instead he and his wife occasionally heard “the hum” for long periods at night time.

No plane remains stationary for such an extended period of time. The UFO pictured here was filmed in place for over 20 minutes.


Carl Sagan’s Alleged Private Beliefs on UFOs: An Examination

Renowned astronomer and astrophysicist Dr. Carl Sagan revealed to Dr. J. Allen Hynek that he believed UFOs were real but avoided any public statements to prevent the loss of academic research funding.

This allegation suggests a divergence between Sagan’s public skepticism and his private views.

Where does this come from?

Investigative journalist Paola Leopizzi-Harris met astronomer, professor and UFO researcher J. Allen Hynek in 1978 at CUFOS, the Center for UFO Studies. Upon learning Harris was Italian-American, Dr. Allen Hynek enlisted her for translation work and she was his assistant in UFO investigations. Their collaboration occurred mainly from 1980 to 1986. This association provided her with significant exposure to UFO research and key individuals involved in the subject.

According to Paola Harris :

“My recollection is that Hynek said it was backstage at one of the many Johnny Carson Tonight shows Sagan did. He basically said (to Hynek) in 1984, ‘I know UFOs are real, but I would not risk my research funding, as you do, to talk openly about them in public.’ ”
Paola Leopizzi-Harris

This quote has been verified by Paola Harris.

Another correspondent, Bryce Zabel, said Sagan had to downplay his passionate belief in extraterrestrials in order to avoid being written off as a crank — a cool crank but a crank nonetheless: “The truth of the matter, to me, is that he felt giving any quarter on the UFO issue could kill his career.”


Reference:
UFO’s: A Scientific Debate, Papers presented at a symposium sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held in Boston on Dec. 26-27, 1969, Pages 265 – 275, https://archive.org/details/ufosscientificde0000unse


The WOW! Signal, Part 2: Math Suggests Origin from Unknown Source, Moving Towards Earth

Illustration (not a real photo)

Just the facts:
PDF: Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977): download here | Discussion on the paper: Academia.edu

Preamble

In 2022, I published The WOW! signal, Part 1: Not made by humans?.
For the longest time (3 years), I wondered why I left the possibility open for “Part 2” instead of just writing “The End.”

It’s now become clear that Part 2 is essential because it includes an important detail that was missing before: EQUATIONS!

Anyone can write anything, but without mathematical equations, it’s just prose. So, here, now, for anyone to check, are the steps required to verify the movement of the Wow! signal towards Earth at 10.526 km/s in 1977.

This truly represents a significant paradigm shift. Previously, the Wow! signal was just the most plausible and only candidate for a radio transmission of non-human extraterrestrial origin in space. Now it is shown that this signal was moving and en route to Earth.

Whatever this means (We Are Not Alone?), it is remarkable that the Doppler calculations on this signal have never been published before. Did the authorities believe it would cause a panic?

Introduction

The Wow! signal has been the strongest and only serious candidate for ETi radio communication for almost half a century. New calculations support that the Wow! signal may have originated from a moving source heading for Earth, adding to its significance in the search for extraterrestrial life.

The text describes the Wow! signal, a strong radio transmission detected by the Big Ear telescope on August 15, 1977, at a frequency of 1420.4556 MHz, which corresponds to a wavelength of 21.105373 cm. The signal’s expected frequency, based on hydrogen, is 1420405751.768 Hz, translating to a wavelength of 21.106114054160 cm. The Doppler shift calculations yield a speed of approximately 10,526 m/sec (37,893 km/h), suggesting that the signal originated from an object approaching Earth. Shown here are the steps to calculate the Doppler shift speed. For context, the average speed of asteroids is around 18–20 km/s, while comets that impact Earth typically travel at about 30 km/s. In comparison, the human-made Voyager spacecraft 1 and 2 are currently traveling at speeds of 15 to 17 km/s.

Speed comparison
The WOW! signal source appears to have approached Earth at 37,893 km/h. The entry speed of the Apollo capsules into the Earth’s atmosphere was 39,705 km/h.

Image NASA: example of atmospheric entry, showing the Mars Exploration Rover aeroshell (MER).

For a better understanding, I added the illustration of the Mars Exploration Rover’s entry into the Mars atmosphere. NASA did choose this shape for its aerodynamic properties. It is possible that the Wow! signal originated from a UFO about to enter Earth’s atmosphere, as much as any other interpretation.

In conclusion, the Wow! signal appears to have originated from an unknown type of source that was approaching Earth at a speed of 10.5 km/s, as indicated by observations and these calculations. It is unknown if this is due to the source’s approach to Earth or the galaxy’s relative movement to Earth. Both scenarios are possible.

Investigations of the Wow! signal to date have not accounted for or mentioned the Doppler blueshift of the signal.

Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 1
Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 2

References:

1: Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977)
https://www.academia.edu/126982728/The_Wow_Signal_Doppler_Shift_Equations

2: ”The tantalizing WOW! Signal” by John Kraus, 1977, Archives of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, https://www.nrao.edu/archives/files/original/2ec6ba346ab16e10a10d09462507beda.pdf

3. Not Made By Humans? Part 2 / The Wow! Signal: Evidence Suggests Origin from Unknown Object, Moving Towards Earth
https://www.academia.edu/126983022/Not_Made_By_Humans_Part_2_The_Wow_Signal_Evidence_Suggests_Origin_from_Unknown_Object_Moving_Towards_Earth

4. Original publication:
Not made by humans? | Part 1, February 5, 2022, Contact Project
https://contactproject.org/?p=779

5. Searching for Interstellar Communications
by Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison
https://web.archive.org/web/20110403061008/http://www.coseti.org/morris_0.htm

6. An approximation to determine the source of the WOW! Signal
Alberto Caballero
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.06090

7. Wow! signal, Wikipedia
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal

8. “Ballad of the ‘Wow!’ Signal”, Paul H. Shuch, SETI League
http://drseti.org/audio/wow.mp3


PDF: The Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977):
download here

UFO Truth: Witnesses, Speak Out!

I’m skeptical of UFO claims made by researchers based solely on secondhand anecdotes. It’s more valuable to hear direct testimony from a UFO witness themselves, rather than relying on third-party accounts. I personally reported UFO sightings to official channels, and as a UFO witness, they quoted my testimony anonymously:

Why? Witnesses should be allowed to stay anonymous, but non-anonymous testimony should be prioritized. To be able to report a sighting only in anonymous mode takes away the credibility of the witness account. Anyone can fabricate a tale, overflow databases with false information, and overwhelm legitimate reporting.

The issue with relying solely on secondhand and anecdotal accounts of UFO sightings is a significant one. Retelling anecdotes can lead to the distortion of facts, the embellishment of stories, and the loss of crucial details. By hearing eyewitness accounts firsthand from a UFO witness, we can gain a more accurate understanding of the events in question.

Asking a UFO witness about their desire for anonymity and giving them the option to disclose their identities would enhance transparency and trustworthiness. Such an arrangement would allow for a more nuanced understanding of the evidence and potentially lead to more credible investigations.

NUFORC witness report form

In fact, some UFO research organizations, such as the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), do offer a UFO witness the option to remain anonymous or to provide their contact information. However, this is not always the case, and we need more transparency in this area.

The National UFO Reporting Center
Dedicated to the collection and
dissemination of objective UFO/UAP data
https://nuforc.org

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 1: The Golden Record

Introduction and Carl Sagan’s Early Work

Artwork inspired by Linda Salzman Sagan’s design for the Pioneer plaque, commissioned by NASA: click here view the original design

Carl Sagan (1934–1996) was an American astronomer, astrobiologist, and author. After NASA was founded in 1958, Sagan became a consultant for the agency. His first job involved planning the explosion of an atomic bomb on the moon, the A119 project. Highly controversial, to say the least. In 1961, at the age of 27, he published a study on the atmosphere of Venus. In 1970 he researched the conditions that could lead to the emergence of life in the cosmos on distant planets. To achieve this, he exposed frequently occurring elements to the UV radiation of a young sun and observed how amino acids, the building blocks of life, were formed from them. Carl Sagan became a full professor at the astronomy department at Cornell University. Around this time, talk shows began inviting him as a popular guest to discuss the possibility of extraterrestrial life.


“Hello, Aliens!”: Voyager Probes Get Sagan’s First Broadcast

In 1972 and 1977, Carl Sagan sent the first messages to extraterrestrials into space on the panels of the space probes Pioneer 10 & 11 and the Golden Record of Voyager 1 & 2.

The gold-plated aluminum cover (L) of the Voyager golden record (R) both protects it from micrometeorite bombardment and also provides a key to playing it and deciphering Earth’s location. NASA

It contains greetings and wishes for peace from the people of Earth in 55 languages. Earthlings extend their friendship, wish happiness and health, and express hope to one day meet their cosmic neighbors. They also express the desire for goodwill and harmony among all beings in the universe.

The greetings are in alphabetical order, from Akkadian (an extinct language for over 2000 years) to Wu Chinese. The inclusion of Akkadian in this earthly record is pretty strange. One day, these transmissions might be intercepted as they pass through space by an alien culture.

Voyager’s ‘Cosmic Map’ Of Earth’s Location Is Hopelessly Wrong

With the help of the included pulsar map, these aliens could potentially find Earth. Pulsars are stars that rhythmically emit radiation, like interstellar lighthouses. We can use them as a cosmic GPS.


Pulsar GPS: Sagan’s Star-Beacon Timecode Reveals 1971 Earth

Over long periods of time, the frequency of a pulsar slows down. Thus the pulsar map designed by scientist Frank Drake and graphic artist Linda Salzman Sagan is not only a determination of the position of our Earth in space, but the map also precisely pinpoints the position of Earth in time: 1971.

What if a prospective alien civilization has or develops the ability to time travel? What would they do with the information provided by our space probes?

Speculation about the subject makes for the greatest sci-fi story ever told. This is particularly true when we consider the included Mesopotamian-language greeting and the Annunaki creation myths—some of which have been popularized by Zecharia Sitchin and others.

Of course, intercepting our space probes is extremely unlikely. It could take millions of years, if at all. But then again, the life expectancy of the Golden Records is 5 billion years.

Aliens recovering the Golden Record

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 2: Extraordinary Claims and the Bermuda Triangle

“Extraordinary?” Sagan’s 1977 Standard Stuns UFO Dreamers

In 1977, when the film “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” was released, Washington Post readers first heard of the “Sagan Standard”: that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Carl Sagan uttered this aphorism in relation to the first film scene. In the scene, planes were found in the Sahara which years earlier disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle. The notion of extraordinary claims was central to Sagan’s skepticism about extraterrestrial causes.

“There is no evidence that lights in the sky or the disappearance of ships or planes are due to extraterrestrial interference (in the Bermuda Triangle)”, Sagan said.


Bermuda Triangle Bombshell: Planes, Submarines & Atomic Mystery

Bermuda Triangle, 1986:
Nine years later, in the shadowy depths of the North Atlantic, the Russian nuclear submarine K-219 vanished beneath the waves. It left a chilling mystery in its wake. As the vessel settled silently on the ocean floor—nearly 18,000 feet (5.5 kilometers) below the surface—a more disturbing discovery emerged. The submarine’s full arsenal of nuclear warheads had inexplicably disappeared, raising extraordinary claims about what might have occurred.

Any attempt to retrieve or remove the warheads should have been impossible at such an unfathomable depth. It was beyond the reach of all human technology in 1986. Yet, the weapons had vanished nonetheless, leaving behind only unanswered questions and a silence as deep as the ocean itself.

Official records claim that the catastrophic incident aboard K-219 took place hundreds of miles from the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. This spot was the very location where the lost submarine ultimately came to rest (Wikipedia).

Yet this contradiction is curious, to say the least, inviting extraordinary claims and speculations.


Deep-Sea Riddle: Vanished Russian Nukes Hide Under Triangle

Consult the Marine Gazetteer Map, and you’ll notice a small dot nestled between Miami and Bermuda. This is the location of the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. In other words, it is inside the notorious Bermuda Triangle.

Science moves forward through doubt, evidence, and the enduring patience to pursue both. But in a case like this, extraordinary claims about the vanished nukes cannot help but intrigue those. These claims make people wonder what secrets still lie hidden beneath those mysterious waters.

Location of the sunk Russian nuclear submarine K-219. Until now, no publication has linked it’s sinking and the disappearance of it’s nuclear arsenal to the presence of the Bermuda Triangle.

Cosmos Mania: Sagan Turns the Universe into Prime-Time TV

In 1980 the name Sagan finally became a household name when Carl presented his extraordinarily successful TV series “Cosmos.”

The series covered topics ranging from the origin of life to a perspective of our place in the universe.

The Sagan Standard, first phrased in the Washington Post article from December 1977, that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” became the mantra of the series. Carl claimed that nearly every UFO sighting is based on optical illusions and misinterpretations.

Carl Sagan wrote regarding UFO claims:

“When confronted with a claim for which there is no compelling evidence, we should reserve judgment. I know of no evidence for visits to Earth by beings from other worlds.”

  • – Carl Sagan

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 3: Skepticism and Egyptian Mysticism

UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar

Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)

Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.


Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals

Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.

Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.

The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.


THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism

Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.

Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.

And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.

The symbol of the Sphinx Head Tomb Secret Society, Cornell University

What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.

Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.

What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 4: Stoned Genius

In 1971 Dr. Sagan, writing under the pseudonym “Mr. X” described his history of marijuana use.

As the paragon of reasoned, evidence-based science, what could have possibly prompted Carl Sagan to light up a joint? He argued that marijuana can be a powerful tool for facilitating mind expansion. When he was high, he had breakthroughs in knowledge and moments of true insight, according to his experience.

He vigorously defended the validity of these pot-fueled realizations:

“There is a myth about such highs: the user has an illusion of great insight, but it does not survive scrutiny in the morning. I am convinced that this is an error and that the devastating insights achieved when high are real insights; the main problem is putting these insights in a form acceptable to the quite different self that we are when we’re down the next day. Some of the hardest work I’ve ever done has been to put such insights down on tape or in writing. The problem is that ten even more interesting ideas or images have to be lost in the effort of recording one.”

Carl Sagan as Mr. X in “Marijuana Reconsidered”, 1971, pg 113-114

Three years after Sagan’s death, Dr. Grinspoon decided to posthumously reveal Mr. X’s identity. His choice honored the world-famous scientist’s often-expressed wish to help end marijuana prohibition.


The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 5: Cosmos Eating Space Probes and Sagan’s Response

SELF-REPLICATING PROBES

In the context of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Search, in 1980 the mathematical physicist and cosmologist Frank J. Tipler published a paper, “Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist.”

Tipler sought a universal principle to explain the Fermi Paradox: the apparent absence of extraterrestrial beings on Earth. He contended that if extraterrestrial intelligent beings existed, then their manifestations would be obvious. Conversely, since there is no evidence of their presence, they do not exist.

Von Neumann Probes

Frank Tipler argued that if any extraterrestrial civilization ever built self-replicating von Neumann starprobes, those probes would grow exponentially. They would fill the galaxy in a few million years. Since we don’t see them here, Tipler concluded there are no other intelligent civilizations.

  • Tipler assumed each probe would land on a new world and make just one or a few copies before moving on. However, he had no reason to limit its reproduction so drastically.

  • Even if each probe were only 10 grams and doubled once per decade, in about 150 generations we’d have the mass of an entire galaxy. This conversion to machines would be on the order of 1 followed by 54 zeros grams (1 quindecillion tons). Moreover, this transformation would occur in less than 15 million years.

  • Because we see no evidence of such galaxy-eating machines anywhere, Tipler said no one else ever invented them. Therefore, no one else is out there.


SAGAN’S RESPONSE

Carl Sagan pondered the arithmetic of Tipler’s solipsist argument. His response is a classic in the realm of science and philosophy. He draws attention to the limitations of our current knowledge and the vastness of the universe. By stating, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Sagan cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t know.

Sagan and William I. Newman challenged Tipler’s assumptions and conclusions, proposing a more realistic colonization model based on population growth and organization. This alternative model estimates a galaxy-crossing time of approximately one billion years, significantly longer than Tipler’s few million years.

Sagan further suggests that self-replicating probes are subject to evolutionary divergence, imposing unacceptable risks to altruistic extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI). The ETI only communicate with other ETI through signals. This argument assumes that self-replicating machines are essentially uncontrollable because they must evolve.

Sagan and Newman also propose that the emergence of powerful weapons of mass destruction may impose a universal brake on unchecked expansion. This could potentially limit the spread of advanced civilizations. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of experimentation in resolving the Fermi Paradox. Systematic searches using radio telescopes and other tools are necessary to settle the question of whether we are alone in the universe.


Terrestrial Shortsightedness

Imagine New York in 1894, its streets choked with the clatter of hooves. Its futurists were drowned in calculations of manure. They predicted that by 1944 New York would drown in horse manure.

The futurists only saw linearity: more carriages, more waste, an apocalypse of filth. However, they could not fathom the silent revolution already stirring—the internal combustion engine, the horseless carriage—a paradigm shift that would render their equations relics.

So too might we falter when envisioning the starfarers of tomorrow. To assume interstellar travel or contact must devour suns is to chain possibility to the physics of this moment. What of the technologies unimagined? The spacetime shortcuts, the dark energy harnessed, the self-replicating probes born of nanoengineering? The cosmos whispers of mysteries we have yet to decode.

Carl Sagan may have cautioned Tipler that his reasoning could mirror that of the horse-cart prophets. One may fail to see beyond the boundaries of the known. The universe is not merely a puzzle to solve with present tools. It is also a frontier that reshapes the solver. As we once tamed fire and split the atom, so too might we one day dance with the fabric of spacetime itself. The answer to the Fermi paradox may not lie in the scarcity of civilizations. It may lie in the humility of our assumptions.

After all, the stars are not merely endpoints. They are teachers. Their greatest lesson might be this: To traverse the light-years, we must first learn to think in ways as boundless as the dark between galaxies.

Video: From Abandoned Child to Cosmic Visionary: The Incredible Journey of Eric Habich-Traut!

Eric Habich‑Traut, founder of The Contact Project, blends technology, human potential and cosmic inquiry. His extraordinary journey spans intrauterine memories shared with figures like Bradbury and Dalí; childhood inventions; a 1986 UFO sighting in Ireland; precognitive visions of the Challenger and K‑219 disasters; and quantum‑physics inspiration from Prof. Günter Nimtz. His 2025 research introduces new math on the “Wow!” signal’s speed, theorizes superluminal brain waves behind PSI phenomena, and offers a simplified string‑theory model of quantum entanglement. Space and time remain our next frontier.