The Sagan Paradox Chapter 9: GOLDILOCKS IN OUR COSMIC NEIGHBORHOOD

The article moves from the general historical context of SETI to a specific, modern candidate for life, then to a mysterious signal from that candidate, critiquing the scientific response to potential extraterrestrial signals, presenting an alternative theory for the signal, and finally broadening the discussion to the overall limitations of the SETI methodology.

A Sagan-Sized Question

For decades, the search for extraterrestrial life was haunted by a daunting sense of scale. In a 1969 lecture that laid the foundation for modern UFO skepticism, Carl Sagan imagined our cosmic neighbors searching for us by a random principle: sending a spaceship to any old star and simply hoping for the best. More often than not, he assumed, they would find nothing. The universe was a colossal haystack, and intelligent life was a single, lonely needle.

It is a triumph of modern astronomy that this picture has been completely overturned. Today, we know of promising candidates for life-bearing planets right in our cosmic backyard. The proverbial haystack, it turns out, might just be a needle factory.

Proxima b’s orbit is in the habitable zone, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be habitable.

From Random Hopes to Targeted Searches

We are no longer searching blindly. Armed not with metal detectors but with powerful telescopes, we can pinpoint the most likely worlds to harbor life. An intelligent civilization on Earth would not send probes randomly into the void; we would send them to these promising targets. And there are many.

In 2016, astronomers discovered one such target: Proxima Centauri b in the Alpha Centauri system: a potentially habitable planet orbiting the closest star to our sun, a mere 4.2 light-years away. While its parent star’s fierce solar winds make surface picnics unlikely, life could theoretically thrive in subterranean shelters.

In an unrealized project, NASA studied in 1987 the possibility of reaching the orbit of Proxima Centauri b within just 100 years at 4.5% the speed of light. This project was named Longshot, and it was about sending an unmanned probe using nuclear propulsion.

If our initial observations of such a world prove inconclusive in the search for life, what would we do? We would do what we are already doing with Mars: we would send probe after probe until we could be certain. Why would an alien intelligence, having discovered a promising blue dot called Earth, be any different? And from a distance, what do our own Martian space probes look like, if not unidentified flying objects?

Human spacecraft approaches Mars, Enlargement of oil on canvas panel for NASA Headquarters. By Don Davis.

A Tantalizing Whisper from Proxima b

In a remarkable coincidence, just as we began to focus on Proxima b in the search for extraterrestrial life, a potential signal emerged from its direction. In April and May of 2019, the Parkes radio telescope in Australia detected a strange, narrow-band radio emission. Dubbed Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1 (BLC1), initially it was classified as a possible sign from an alien civilization.

Parkes Radio Telescope, by Diceman Stephen West, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The signal’s characteristics were puzzling. Its Doppler shift—the change in its frequency—appeared to be the opposite of what would be expected from the planet’s orbit. Curiously, the signal appeared 10 days after a major solar flare from Proxima Centauri, though no link has been established. The primary investigators were two interns, Shane Smith and Sofia Sheikh. They worked cautiously to rule out terrestrial interference.

Some senior researchers did review the results but found nothing of note.


Long Delay

The BLC-1 signal was first reported publicly 1.5 years after its detection, and only because it was leaked to The Guardian newspaper. The public then had to wait another year for the final results. People were puzzled by the secrecy which fueled speculation.

Delays in announcing a discovery—or non-discovery—within SETI and astronomy are standard practice. Data are not released to the public until they have been verified. For instance, when radio stars were first discovered in 1967, it took two years before the discovery was published. The scientists held on to their data until they found what they considered a plausible natural explanation. The supposed Pulsar mechanism remains a mystery to this day.

This delay practice by SETI can give the impression that data are withheld until “natural explanations” have been found; radio-frequency interference (RFI) is one such explanation.

“Ultimately, I think we’ll be able to convince ourselves that BLC-1 is interference.”

– Andrew Siemion, SETI Principal Investigator for Breakthrough Listen

Within the SETI community, Siemion’s statement exemplifies scientific humility and the cautious process necessary to distinguish genuine signals from interference. Outside SETI, analogous statements can be understood as masking underlying biases or reluctance to accept paradigm-shifting discoveries. This highlights how context influences the interpretation of such remarks.


How long did Earth listen for the BLC-1 signal?

Breakthrough Listen reserved 30 hours on the Parkes telescope to observe Proxima Centauri, but the putative signal was detected during only about three of those hours—roughly 10 % of the total observing time.

During the next six months the team logged another 39 hours of follow-up observations. Out of the 4,320 hours in that half-year, just 0.9 % was spent searching for a repeat—about one-tenth of the effort devoted to the original scan.

The question remains: Was a longer campaign warranted? More generally, aren’t extended observing campaigns in radio-astronomical SETI necessary? We cannot presume that extraterrestrial civilizations broadcast continuous signals; those transmissions may be the only ones we ever detect, and even then only by chance.

BLC-1 has underscored that, when practicable, observations of potential technosignatures should be conducted from at least two different observing sites simultaneously. That this wasn’t done in the case of BLC-1 is inexplicable.

What would be the worst case when announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence?

A mass panic? That later investigations prove the discovery to be wrong and it has to be retracted? Thus discrediting the field of SETI? Or that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the Cosmos? Would this discovery temper humankinds worst instincts, such as warfare, to the detriment of despotic rulers?


A “Galactic Communications Grid” and BLC-1

At first glance, detecting a narrowband radio signal (e.g., BLC-1) from Proxima Centauri—the star system next door—seems fantastically unlikely. Astrophysicist Jason T. Wright countered that, from an engineering standpoint, Proxima is exactly where we should expect to find such a transmission.

If a galactic communication network exists, Proxima would be the most likely “last mile” transmitter to the Solar System. Instead of every civilization trying to beam powerful, targeted messages to every other star system they want to contact, they would establish a network of communication nodes or relays.


Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”

Proxima as the Solar System’s “Cell Tower”
In this scenario, Proxima Centauri—the closest star to our Solar System—serves as the logical “cell tower.” A message intended for our region of space would be routed through the galactic network to the Proxima Centauri system. A transmitter located there would then handle the “last mile” broadcast to the Solar System.

These nodes in the Galactic Communications Grid would need to ping each other regularly. But since radio waves travel at the speed of light, a single ping would take over eight years (accounting for the 4.24-light-year distance and signal processing time). Given this limitation, perhaps there’s another way to communicate with extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI)?

The speed of light is fixed for electromagnetic radio waves—but what about physical objects? And I’m not primarily referring to warp technology, but rather to objects that might already be here.


The Trouble with SETI

ET to SETI: can you hear us now?
ET to SETI: can you hear us now?

 SETI’s foundational premise is that extraterrestrial civilizations would likely be light-years away, not operating stealthily in Earth’s atmosphere. The hundreds of thousands of reported UFO sighting are perceived by SETI as being mostly the product of wishful thinking, misinterpretations and fakes.

Because UAPs/UFOs have no confirmed extraterrestrial link, SETI has no scientific basis for allocating resources to them. Consequently, no scientific efforts are undertaken to attempt contact with UAPs by radio or other signalling methods (e.g., lasers).

To qualify as a genuine ETI radio signal, the signal must come from far away and its detection must be reproducible. Otherwise it risks being classified as interference outright.

Highly directional, sensitive radio telescopes are not suited for close-range communication. For this reason, the Contact Project has suggested involving amateur radio operators (hams), whose omnidirectional antennas could be used in communication attempts with UAPs.

SETI with directional AND omnidirectional antennas, for far-and close-range Rx/Tx searches

Scientific Observational Attempts to Detect UAPs/UFOs

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb has been leading the Galileo Project, one branch of his project is the detection of possible radio emissions from UAPs.

With new observatories online Avi Loeb is challenging the scientific establishment by taking UAPs seriously.

He sensationally declared he’s looking for intelligent life in deep space, blasting: “I’m interested in intelligence in outer space because I don’t find it very often here on Earth!”

The definition of his job is simple. “What is it to be a scientist?” he asks. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s the privilege of being curious.” It is this foundational principle that now drives one of the most ambitious and controversial scientific endeavors of our time: the Galileo Project. In an age of polarized opinion, the project aims to rise above the noise by focusing on a single, unimpeachable authority. “In science,” he declares, “the arbitrator is the physical reality.”

The project, which is now in full swing in the summer of 2025, was born from a frustration with a scientific community he sees as often too quick to dismiss the unknown. The turning point was the baffling 2017 interstellar visitor, ‘Oumuamua. Its strange, flat shape and its acceleration away from the sun without a visible cometary tail led him to suggest it could be an artifact of an alien technology. The backlash was swift. He recalls a colleague, an expert on rocks, confiding that ‘Oumuamua was “so weird I wish it never existed”—a statement project leader Avi Loeb sees as the antithesis of scientific curiosity.

The Mysterious Signal from Proxima Centauri: How Scientists Solved a Cosmic Whodunit

The Discovery That (almost) Fooled Astronomers

In April 2019, astronomers with the Breakthrough Listen project detected something extraordinary: a narrow radio signal at 982 MHz, seemingly emanating from Proxima Centauri, our solar system’s closest stellar neighbor. Dubbed BLC1 (Breakthrough Listen Candidate 1), the signal had all the hallmarks of a technosignature—a potential transmission from an extraterrestrial civilization.

For a brief moment, the world dared to wonder: Had we finally found evidence of alien technology?

But as scientists dug deeper, the truth proved far more mundane—and far more fascinating.

The Case for BLC1 as an Alien Signal

At first glance, BLC1 was the most compelling candidate in the history of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI):

Precise frequency: The signal was laser-sharp, just a few Hertz wide—something natural astrophysical phenomena can’t produce.

Non-zero drift: Its frequency drifted at 0.03 Hz/s, consistent with a transmitter on a planet like Proxima b.

Localized: It appeared only when the telescope pointed at Proxima Centauri, vanishing during off-source scans.

“The signal appears to only show up in our data when we’re looking in the direction of Proxima Centauri, which is exciting,” Ms. Sheikh said.

The Plot Twist: A Cosmic False Alarm

The Breakthrough Listen team subjected BLC1 to relentless scrutiny—and cracks began to appear.

May 2nd 2019, a possible BLC1 redetection: radio dish is pointed at Proxima b

1. The Drift That Didn’t Fit

If BLC1 came from Proxima b, its frequency drift should have shown:

Cyclical variation (rising and falling as the planet rotated).
Orbital signatures (subtle shifts tied to its 11.2-day year).

Instead, the drift was strangely linear—more like a glitching human device than an alien beacon.

2. The RFI Doppelgängers

Then, researchers found dozens of similar signals at frequencies like 712 MHz and 1062 MHz—all mathematically linked to common radio interference (RFI). These “lookalikes” had the same drift behavior but were unmistakably human-made, appearing even when the telescope wasn’t pointed at Proxima.

BLC1 wasn’t a lone anomaly—it was part of a pattern.

3. The Cadence Coincidence

The final clue? BLC1’s timing matched the telescope’s observing schedule.

On-source (30 min): Signal detectable.
Off-source (5 min): Signal too faint to see.

This created an illusion of localization—like a flickering streetlight that only seems to work when you walk by.

The Verdict: A Cosmic Mirage

After a year of analysis, the team concluded: BLC1 was interference, likely from:

Intermodulation: A “ghost” signal created when two radio waves mixed in faulty electronics.

A malfunctioning device (possibly hundreds of miles from the observatory).

Lessons for the Hunt for Alien Life

BLC1’s rise and fall taught scientists three critical lessons:

Single telescopes are vulnerable to false alarms. Future searches need global networks to cross-check signals.

The search is worth it.

For now, Proxima Centauri’s secrets remain hidden. But the hunt continues.

BLC1 wasn’t aliens—but as SETI enters a new era (with projects like the Square Kilometer Array), we’re better prepared than ever to answer humanity’s oldest question: Are we alone?

Primary Research Papers

These two papers were published concurrently and should be read together for a complete understanding of the BLC1 signal, from its detection to its ultimate classification as interference.

  1. A radio technosignature search towards Proxima Centauri resulting in a signal of interest
    • Authors: Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, Sofia Z. Sheikh, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01479-w
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08007
    • Abstract: This paper describes the overall search for technosignatures from Proxima Centauri and the initial detection of the BLC1 signal. It details the characteristics that made BLC1 an intriguing candidate.
  2. Analysis of the Breakthrough Listen signal of interest blc1 with a technosignature verification framework
    • Authors: Sofia Z. Sheikh, Shane Smith, Danny C. Price, et al.
    • Journal: Nature Astronomy
    • Link to paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01508-8
    • arXiv (free preprint): https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.06350
    • Abstract: This is the companion paper that provides a deep dive into the analysis of BLC1. It outlines the verification framework used and presents the evidence that led to the conclusion that BLC1 was a product of human-generated radio frequency interference.

Additional Resources from Breakthrough Listen

The Breakthrough Listen initiative has also made a wealth of information about BLC1 available to the public.

  • BLC1 – Breakthrough Listen’s First “Signal of Interest”: This is the main resource page from the Berkeley SETI Research Center, providing summaries, links to the papers, data, and other supplementary materials.
  • Breakthrough Initiatives Press Release: This press release gives a good overview of the findings in an accessible format.

EARTH TO E.T.: WE’VE GONE GHOST!

Earth once blared its presence into space with powerful radio and TV signals—then fell almost silent as we switched to digital and cable. In just a few fleeting decades, our planet’s once-booming “broadcast bubble” shrank to faint whispers, changing Earth’s radio signature. This reshapes our view of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. Discover why that brief broadcast window matters. Is it time for humankind to shift from passive listening (SETI) to actively waving hello to the stars with powerful, deliberate beacons (METI)?

1. Early Radio History and Speculation

Early radio transmissions were generally weak. Therefore, they likely did not penetrate the ionosphere. However, as technology advanced, Earth’s radio signature grew. It marked our planet’s cosmic presence.

In the early years of the twentieth century, there was speculation that Extraterrestrials were trying to contact human beings by radio signals. In 1919, Marconi himself encouraged this speculation, claiming he was receiving strange transmissions resembling Morse code, possibly from outer space.

RKO Radio Pictures Inc., commonly known as RKO, was one of the first film production and distribution companies of Hollywoods Golden Age. RKO eventually expanded its operations to include television broadcasting.

The sound played during the “A Radio Picture” logo from 1929 is Morse code.

From the beginning, their logo featured a transmission tower relaying a Morse code sequence: VVV A RADIO PICTURE VVVV. “VVV” in Morse code means “attention, incoming message”. “VVVV” may mean: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus “The Force of Truth Comes Alive”

2. The Rise of Detectable Signals

By 1931, about 25 TV stations in the U.S. were broadcasting television. And those who worry about Carl Sagan’s novel “Contact”: Germany began TV broadcasting in 1935. Any aliens watching Hitler speak in 1936 may have been more excited by Dolores Del Rio, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire and King Kong. (Picture: The special effects crew behind the set of “A Radio Picture” in 1929.)

The “Golden Age of Radio” and the subsequent rise of analog television broadcasting in the mid-20th century marked the first substantial contribution towards Earth’s technosignature. The total estimated radio power escaping into space reached tens to hundreds of megawatts by the 1970s. Powerful omnidirectional, analog signals characterized this period. This created an easily detectable “radio bubble” around Earth.

Radio power from TV signals excaping into space, reference: A-Megawatt-Analysis-of-Anthropogenic-Emissions-into-Outer-Space-1900-2025.pdf (PDF 1)

3. Earth as a Cosmic Mirror

In the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Earth’s radio emissions serve as a “cosmic mirror,” offering a tangible reference for the kinds of signals a distant, technologically advanced civilization might transmit—signals that, in turn, we might hypothetically detect.

4. The Decline of Broad Leakage

TV stations are growing, but their space-bound signal leakage is shrinking as they abandon over-the-air broadcasts. Our peak broad signal leakage—key to the Drake Equation—began falling as focused, less-leaky communication technologies emerged. This transition includes:

  • Satellite Communications: Becoming widespread from the 1970s and 1980s onwards, satellite transmissions are generally directed point-to-point, reducing broad leakage.
  • Cable Television and Fiber Optics: The increasing use of cable TV (reducing over-the-air television broadcasts) and later, fiber optic cables for a vast amount of data transmission. The internet significantly cut down on the amount of radio frequency energy escaping into space. This shift became more pronounced from the late 20th century into the 21st century.
  • Digital Transmissions: Analog broadcasts, which were once more easily detected, are being replaced by digital signals. These digital signals are often more compressed and less likely to leak into space, contributing to Earth becoming “radio quiet” in terms of traditional broadcast leakage.

5. A Short Critique of the Drake Equation’s “L” Parameter

The Drake equation speculates on alien civilizations. In Drake’s original formulation, people often interpret “L” as the total lifespan of a technological civilization.

The Drake Equation, Image © https://sciencenotes.org, Anne Helmenstine 

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals.

Earth’s broad radio leakage lasted roughly from the 1930s until the 1980s–90s.
Thus, our planet broadcast Drake-equation-style signals for only about 40–60 years.
Then we switched to spread-spectrum digital, satellite, cable, and internet communications. Now only random radar pings and digital blips leak into space, quickly blending into cosmic background noise (CMB).

A young Carl Sagan explains the Drake equation

Although the Drake equation was a playful practice in the last millennium, by its own metric humankind would no longer exist, because we don’t release significant radio leakage anymore. Hence, the Drake equation is somewhat obsolete. If Earth civilization is a typical technological civilization, then we can expect other civilizations to leave a similar footprint of “L”—about fifty years. That leaves almost no time for any astronomer to detect a signal.

Ever wondered about the Fermi paradox and why we hear nothing of our cosmic neighbors in the radio spectrum? Here is one possible explanation:

We are now almost radio silent in the cosmos!

But because our “L” was only a mean 50 years, that doesn’t mean that we are extinct! It’s just that we have upgraded our communication system. This explains why the focus of SETI is shifting, away from radio signals, towards bio signatures and other technosignatures, not just radiowaves.

SETI shifts away from radio siganls

The “L” (Longevity) variable in the Drake Equation is thus not a simple constant even for a single civilization.

Actually, trying to detect interstellar Extraterrestrial civilizations by radio-signatures is a futile endeavour: it’s like scrolling through static on an old TV and hoping to catch an intergalactic episode of I Love Lucy that’s been bouncing around space for a billion years. No advanced technological civilization would be using radiowaves travelling at a mere 300000 km/sec for interstellar communication. That would be like sending smoke signals across the ocean. The only alien radiowaves we can ever hope to receive are leaked planetary signals and possibly navigational beacons.

Cosmic navigational beacons?

6. Analysis of Earth’s Current Radio Signature

The latest study on Earth’s radiosignature is from Sofia Z. Sheikh et al 2025 AJ 169 118: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

Sheikh calculated the detectability of four types of radio emissions from Earth. One conclusion was that an observer can detect planetary radar (Arecibo message from 1975) from the greatest distance. This graphic exemplifies this:

For simplification, I have translated the graph from Sheikh’s study. Labels are written out and “AU” are converted into light-years and kilometers.

Sheikh overlooks that the Arecibo radar message was highly directional—only detectable along its precisely aimed, narrow path.

The Arecibo Message

The “Arecibo message” from 1974 lasted only 168 seconds. Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and the other organizers of the boadcast did make it clear that the message was intended not as a genuine attempt to contact extraterrestrials, but as a symbolic demonstration of human technological capability.

The Arecibo telescope in December 2021. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Any serious attempt at communication with ETI would have required using Arecibo to send continuous signals into space, not just for three minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arecibo_message

Arecibo telescope after its collapse (December 2021). Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Altogether, humankind sent two dozen messages intended for an extraterrestrial audience into space from different telescopes. The total combined efforts in all of history to contact Extraterrestrial civilizations amounted to a measly 62.7 hours of transmissions. Not even three days. That is almost nothing in the billions of years of history of the universe, or life on Earth.
Ref.: Major METI transmissions (PDF 2)

The Arecibo message, with its directional 20 trillion watts (450 kw actual), was sent to the globular cluster M13, 25,000 light-years away. But calculations indicate the signal only penetrates about 12 000 light-years before the interstellar medium (ISM) absorbs it. Pity—what a clever demonstration of human technological prowess that was.

7. Breakdown of Earth’s Transmission- and Key Signal Types

Directional transmission (METI )– you choose a known exoplanet or promising star, minimizing exposure of one’s civilization by targeting needles in haystack, amongst 300- 500 million stars. Takes forever. That is the current strategy, based on the Dark Forest Hypothesis.
Omnidirectional transmission (unintentional METI) – “everyone in the Galaxy” can eavesdrop; historically Earth’s leakage (TV, Radio and nuclear expolsions) was unintended METI.

  • Mobile Communication Leakage (omnidirectional): The Sheikh paper addressed leakage from LTE cellphone communication systems. Researchers estimate the impressive peak power leaking into space from mobile towers is approximately 4 GW. This pales into insignificance when we realize that an observer can only detect these signals from up to about 4 light-years away.
  • Planetary Radar (highly directional): Many radio telescopes can function as radar systems—for example, to measure the distances of Solar System planets or distant asteroids and to assess their probability of impacting Earth. And for about 62.7 hours these systems have also been used to send messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations.

The following key signal types were omitted from the study on Earth’s radio technosignatures in the Sheikh paper:

  • Television Signals (omnidirectional): Earth’s early Radio and TV bubble was omnidirectional. An observer can detect it in every direction. An extraterrestrial audience could theoretically detect analog television signals—which began broadcasting in the 1930s—from up to 111 light-years away, representing a historical “radio bubble” of our planet’s past emissions. Broadcasters transmitted these signals, which operated in the VHF and UHF ranges, with megawatts of power.
  • Radio Signals (omnidirectional): In contrast, AM and FM radio signals, do not penetrate into space as effectively as higher-frequency signals. While they are powerful enough for terrestrial reception, their intensity diminishes rapidly with distance, limiting their ability to escape Earth’s immediate vicinity into deep space.
  • Radar (directional): The post–World War II era saw significant, continuous growth in radar systems—military, air-traffic-control, and weather—which, despite their pulsed nature, delivered consistently high average power thanks to their high operating frequencies and widespread deployment. By the 2000s, radar emissions into space were estimated at several hundred megawatts. Radar is not omnidirectional. If ETI had instrumentation comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), they might detect our radar transmissions from distances up to approximately 300 light-years.
  • Military Radar (directional): Military radar systems are among the most powerful signals intentionally emitted from Earth. While specific power levels are often not publicly detailed, they are generally described as “significant”. A key characteristic of military radar is its directionality. These signals are designed to be highly directional, focusing their energy into narrow beams to achieve precise detection and tracking of targets. This focused power allows them to be very strong within their beam, making them highly detectable if an extraterrestrial observer is precisely aligned with that beam.
  • Nuclear Explosions (omnidirectional): Humankind has detonated 2,000 nuclear bombs since 1945. The Russian Tsar Bomba of 1961 was the most powerful, and its radio emissions were ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo message.

Using the link-budget formula (PDF 3), we calculate that the Tsar Bomb electromagnetic pulse (PDF 4) could have been (or will be) detected by advanced radiotelescope technology (SKA2) out to roughly 36,000 light-years.

Looking ahead, the capabilities of a more highly advanced extraterrestrial civilization might extend that range to about 1.17 million light-years. That is enough to encompass the volume of the Milky Way, which is estimated to contain 300–500 million habitable planets. Several dwarf galaxies also lie within this volume of space. The thermonuclear Tsar Bomb explosion was by far the strongest radio signal that Earth has ever sent into space.

SETI scientists argue that the short duration of nuclear electromagnetic pulses makes their detection unlikely. That may have been true if those EMP had been the only radio pulses coming from Earth. But as a matter of fact, Earth had been making waves for decades before the barrage of nuclear tests ended. The expanding TV and radio bubble made sure of that. And those broadcasts transmitted 24/7.

8. Challenges of Interstellar Detection: Signal Degradation and Cosmic Noise

How Space Wears Down Radio Signals: Distance and the Interstellar Medium
The journey of any radio signal across 10,000 light-years is governed by the inverse square law, which causes a dramatic reduction in signal intensity. Beyond simple weakening, the interstellar medium (ISM) acts as a complex distorting filter. The ISM gas between the stars can spread out a broadband signal over time. Tiny variations in electron density scatter the waves. That scattering not only stretches the signal in time and space but also produces rapid, unpredictable flickers in intensity. These scintillations can make a message impossible to decode. Such distortions get much worse at lower frequencies. That is why astronomers favor the 1–10 GHz “microwave window”, the best range for sending signals across interstellar space.

The Cosmic Veil: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
Space isn’t silent—it’s alive with radio chatter. From our Sun’s booming broadcasts to distant black holes belting out jets of particles, the universe drips with natural “noise.” that can easily mask any deliberate signal we send or hope to detect. Any terrestrial signal must be distinguished from the overwhelming natural radio background of the cosmos. This background includes pervasive sources like the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which establishes a fundamental noise floor, and galactic background noise from synchrotron radiation. And are pulsars natural phenomena, mimicking certain characteristics of intelligent signals, or are they intelligent signals, misunderstood by humankinds igorance of the engineering capapilities of a Kardashev type III and IV ciilization? These questions pose a significant challenge for recognition.

9. Conclusion: The Reality of Interstellar Eavesdropping

The Hypothetical Tech Needed for Extraterrestrial Eavesdropping
For an extraterrestrial civilization to detect Earth’s radio technosignature from 10,000 light-years, it would require radio astronomy technology vastly superior to current human capabilities.

This would likely involve collecting areas orders of magnitude larger than our most powerful telescopes (potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of Arecibo-sized dishes), coupled with extremely low system temperatures (achieved through cryogenic cooling), wide bandwidths, and very long integration times to achieve the necessary signal-to-noise ratio.


The Real Odds: Why Earth’s Radio Shouts Are Mostly Whispers Across the Galaxy
In conclusion, while the theoretical detectability of Earth’s most powerful, directed radio emissions extends to galactic distances, the practical challenges of signal attenuation, interstellar distortion, and overwhelming cosmic noise mean that the vast majority of Earth’s radio footprint remains localized. The successful detection of Earth’s intelligent signal from 10,000 light-years would signify an extraordinary level of technological advancement on the part of the observing extraterrestrial civilization, far surpassing humanity’s current capabilities. This underscores the profound difficulty in interstellar communication and provides critical perspective for humanity’s ongoing search for extraterrestrial intelligence.


Tired of Waiting for E.T. to Call?
It’s Time to Make the First Move.

Our civilization’s radio tech signature offers a stark revelation: waiting passively to be discovered is a strategy doomed by the physics of communication and the trajectory of technology. Our own history serves as a cosmic mirror, reflecting the likely silence of other advanced societies. The prospects of being detected by chance are remarkably slim; our most powerful, intentional messages have been mere momentary shouts aimed with laser-like precision at impossibly small targets. Simultaneously, our best chance for accidental discovery—the omnidirectional “radio bubble”…is rapidly fading as we become more efficient and, consequently, “radio quiet.”

Cosmic Mirror

If we accept this fleeting, whispering technological phase as typical, we must conclude that waiting for another civilization’s leaky signals is as futile as them waiting for ours. The Great Silence may not be a lack of life, but a universe of civilizations that, like us, have outgrown noisy, inefficient broadcasting.

This realization demands a shift in strategy. To stand any chance of being detected, or of detecting others, we must embrace Active METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). We cannot hope to find a needle in a cosmic haystack by chance; we must listen for the magnets. By understanding that we would need to build a powerful, sustained, and deliberate beacon to announce our presence, the cosmic mirror shows us precisely what we should be searching for. Committing to an active, intentional transmission is therefore not just an act of introduction; it is the most logical step toward refining our own search, transforming our understanding of our own limitations into the very tool needed to finally detect a kindred signal in the void.


This article presented new independent research on Earth’s historical radio signature in the cosmos, the total duration and strength of modern METI transmissions and -by comparison- the detectability of thermonuclear explosions by extraterrestrial civilizations.

Erich Habich-Traut

References used in this text:

  1. PDF: Earth’s Evolving Radio Footprint: A Megawatt Analysis of Anthropogenic Emissions in Outer Space (1900-2025)
  2. PDF: Major METI Transmissions
  3. PDF: TSAR Bomba Nuclear EMP detectability by Extraterrestrial Civilization
  4. PDF: Radio power comparison Tsar Bomba (1961) vs. Arecibo SETI Signal (1974)
  5. Article: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?