What could be the worst-case scenario upon announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial technological intelligence? This list is not inclusive.
Potential Consequences:
1. Mass Panic:
The crisis of order. Exploitation could surge, with doomsday cults gaining followers and charlatans claiming to be “ambassadors” for the aliens, preying on the fearful.
Economic collapse might occur, as markets could crash due to radical uncertainty following an extraterrestrial discovery. Misinformation would fill the information vacuum, leading to conspiracy theories and fear-mongering, potentially inciting violence and civil unrest.
However, studies of disasters (including the COVID-19 pandemic) suggest that true, sustained mass panic is less common than often assumed.
2. A Retraction: The Crisis of Credibility
What if subsequent investigations prove the discovery to be false, requiring a retraction? This could discredit the entire SETI field.
Such a scenario would be a catastrophic embarrassment. The field already struggles with what some call the “giggle factor,” and being discredited for a generation could severely damage public trust in scientists and science as a whole. Securing funding for future searches might become nearly impossible after a failed extraterrestrial discovery.
3. Humanity Dethroned: The Crisis of Meaning
What if the extraterrestrial discovery implies that humankind no longer occupies the pinnacle of evolution in the cosmos?
Religions centered on human exceptionalism could face a fundamental crisis. However, studies on this subject have shown that the impact may be negligible.
Our entire worldview, which places humanity at the center of meaning, could be invalidated. This could lead to profound, species-wide depression, a loss of purpose, and what philosophers term “cosmic despair.” Why strive, create, or even continue if we are but ants on an unremarkable anthill?
(I disagree.)
4. The Optimistic View (The Cosmic Perspective):
Would this discovery temper humankind’s worst instincts, such as warfare, and diminish the power of despotic rulers?
Carl Sagan and others have hoped that knowing we are not alone would foster a “cosmic perspective.” Realizing we are all citizens of a fragile, shared planet in a vast cosmos could make nationalism, racism, and warfare seem petty and childish. Such an extraterrestrial discovery could unite humanity and pose a threat to despotic rulers whose power relies on manufacturing “us vs. them” conflicts.
(I agree.)
5. The Pessimistic View:
A despotic ruler thrives on controlling information and manipulating fear. An alien intelligence could become the ultimate propaganda tool.
A dictator might claim that the aliens pose a demonic threat, justifying crackdowns and military expansion to “protect” the populace.
They could also claim that the aliens have endorsed their rule, creating a new “divine right” to govern after such an extraterrestrial discovery.
The discovery could trigger an unimaginably high-stakes Cold War, where nations fight not for territory or resources but for control of communication channels and any technological secrets the aliens might reveal.
(Well, that’s why we have HAM radio operators and satellite dishes.)