A study by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff analyzes the Gimbal UAP video, a 34-second infrared clip recorded by a U.S. Navy F/A-18F jet in 2015. It shows an unidentified object (UAP) moving erratically—stopping, rotating mid-air, and reversing direction instantly—with no visible wings or exhaust.
Key Observations from Pilots:
The object was close (within 6–10 nautical miles).
It suddenly stopped and reversed course without a turning arc—a maneuver impossible for conventional aircraft.
It was part of a group of 4–6 other unknown objects moving against strong winds.
What the Study Did:
Using data from the jet’s targeting system (ATFLIR) and radar, researchers reconstructed the flight path for the UAP and compared it to the pilots testimony.
At the distance reported by the pilots (6-8 nautical miles), the object’s movements matched eyewitness accounts:
It slowed down from ~300 knots to near-zero (high speed).
Then made a sharp “vertical U-turn” (unlike any known aircraft).
No wings or exhaust plumes (like a normal jet) were visible at this range during this maneuver.
Alternative Theory
Some argue the object might just be camera glare from a distant jet’s exhaust (30+ miles away) and that the “rotation” was a sensor glitch. But this doesn’t explain:
The pilots’ data showing instant direction changes.
Why the object matched the jet’s movements so closely.
Why Does This Matter?
The study doesn’t prove what the object was, but its movements defy normal aerodynamics. The researchers want aviation experts to take a closer look—because if this wasn’t a drone, jet, or camera trick, what was it?
If the object described in the text was indeed a UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) in the sense of an extraterrestrial or unknown advanced craft, it would have significant implications.
What if it was a UFO?
It would mean a technology far beyond our own exists: The object pulled off “impossible maneuvers no known aircraft can do,” such as suddenly stopping mid-air, spinning 90 degrees, reversing course instantly, and making sharp, physics-defying U-turns without slowing down. It had “no wings, no exhaust, no explanation” for its propulsion. This would indicate a mastery of physics and engineering that currently eludes human understanding.
It would validate the pilots’ observations and radar data: The “fighter jets radar locked onto the UFO,” and a “new study crunched the numbers and found at that range the UFO’s movements match exactly what the pilots described.” This would confirm the reliability of these highly trained observers and sophisticated detection systems in identifying something truly anomalous.
It would challenge conventional explanations:Skeptics’ claims of “camera glare from a distant jet” would be insufficient to explain the radar evidence and the detailed pilot testimonies. The text explicitly states these explanations don’t hold up.
The burden of proof would indeed shift, as Michio Kaku suggests: If such an object is confirmed, it would no longer be on individuals to prove they saw something extraordinary. Instead, military and scientific institutions would face immense pressure to explain what these objects are, where they come from, and what their intentions might be. The question “what was it?” would become a central focus of investigation.
In essence, if it were a UFO, it would open up a new era of scientific inquiry, reshape our understanding of our place in the universe, and potentially have profound societal and technological impacts. The mystery surrounding these “mystery craft flying in formation” would move from the realm of speculation to urgent reality.
What is our place in the universe?
Bottom Line
The Gimbal UAP moves in ways that don’t match any known aircraft, making it a genuine mystery. The study doesn’t solve it but shows why more research is needed.
A Science Fiction Short Story: In a universe filled with mysteries, the discovery of an extraterrestrial signal could change everything.
Chapter 1: The Question
Ray Faser leaned back in his chair, fingers steepled, staring at the projection of Earth’s nuclear test history—a timeline of detonations stretching from 1945 to 1996. The data pulsed like a slow, irregular heartbeat.
Two thousand nuclear blasts. Each one had sent an electromagnetic scream (EMP) into the void.
On the other side of the screen, Dr. Elias Varen, a senior astrophysicist with the SETI Institute, adjusted his glasses. “You’re suggesting we’ve already announced ourselves.”
“I’m saying we lit a bonfire in the ‘Dark Forest‘. And now we’re whispering ‘Hello?’ like we’re afraid of being rude.”
Varen exhaled. “The difference is intent. A nuclear EMP is noise. A structured message is a handshake.”
Ray leaned forward. “You think an advanced civilization hears a thousand atomic explosions and thinks, ‘Hmm, must be background radiation’? They’ll know what it is. And they’ll know it’s dangerous.”
Chapter 2: The UAP Variable
The Pentagon’s recent disclosures hung between them like an unspoken specter. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena—craft defying known physics, lingering in Earth’s skies for decades.
Ray tapped the table. “If they’re already here, silence isn’t caution. It’s stupidity. We should be sending ‘We come in peace’ in every frequency we’ve got.”
Varen’s jaw tightened. “Or we’re confirming we’re a threat. Nuclear weapons, uncontrolled emissions—what if they’re waiting to see if we grow up?”
“Or waiting to see if we shoot first,” Ray countered. The Dark Forest isn’t just a theory. It’s a mirror. We’re the ones who nuked ourselves two thousand times. We’re the predators.”
Chapter 3: The Silence Gambit
A new voice cut in—Dr. Elena Papadakis, a xenopsychologist. “Assume they have detected us. Silence could be read as hostility. A predator hiding.”
Varen shook his head. “Or prudence.”
Ray laughed bitterly. “Prudence? We’re ostriches. Heads in the sand, asses in the air.”
He pulled up the latest UAP footage—a tic-tac object maneuvering at Mach 10. “They aren’t hiding. Why are we?”
Chapter 4: The Decision
The room fell quiet. The screen flickered, overlaying Earth’s radio bubble—expanding at light speed for a century, a glowing sphere of TV broadcasts, radar pings, and nuclear EMPs that might just serve as an unintended extraterrestrial signal.
Elena broke the silence. “If they’re here, they already know who we are. The question isn’t if we signal. It’s what we say.”
Ray leaned back. “How about ‘We’re not all psychopaths’?”
Varen didn’t smile. “Or we prove it.”
Outside, the stars burned cold and distant. Waiting.
Epilogue: The First Message
Three months later, the Arecibo successor array sent a single, repeating sequence toward a UAP hotspot.
Not mathematics. Not science.
Music. Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy.”
A handshake—or a plea.
The Dark Forest listened.
——————-
Author’s note The character of Ray Faser (and his author) have been waiting for reactivation ever since their first and last appearance in a short science-fiction story in a school newspaper in 1979.
Reference: The history of nuclear testing began early on the morning of 16 July 1945 at a desert test site in Alamogordo, New Mexico when the United States exploded its first atomic bomb. In the five decades between that fateful day in 1945 and the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, over 2,000 nuclear tests were carried out all over the world. https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-nuclear-tests-day/history
Just the facts: PDF: Doppler Blueshift Calculations for WOW! signal (1977): download here | Discussion on the paper: Academia.edu
Preamble
In 2022, I published The WOW! signal, Part 1: Not made by humans?. For the longest time (3 years), I wondered why I left the possibility open for “Part 2” instead of just writing “The End.”
It’s now become clear that Part 2 is essential because it includes an important detail that was missing before: EQUATIONS!
Anyone can write anything, but without mathematical equations, it’s just prose. So, here, now, for anyone to check, are the steps required to verify the movement of the Wow! signal towards Earth at 10.526 km/s in 1977.
This truly represents a significant paradigm shift. Previously, the Wow! signal was just the most plausible and only candidate for a radio transmission of non-human extraterrestrial origin in space. Now it is shown that this signal was moving and en route to Earth.
Whatever this means (We Are Not Alone?), it is remarkable that the Doppler calculations on this signal have never been published before. Did the authorities believe it would cause a panic?
Introduction
The Wow! signal has been the strongest and only serious candidate for ETi radio communication for almost half a century. New calculations support that the Wow! signal may have originated from a moving source heading for Earth, adding to its significance in the search for extraterrestrial life.
The text describes the Wow! signal, a strong radio transmission detected by the Big Ear telescope on August 15, 1977, at a frequency of 1420.4556 MHz, which corresponds to a wavelength of 21.105373 cm. The signal’s expected frequency, based on hydrogen, is 1420405751.768 Hz, translating to a wavelength of 21.106114054160 cm. The Doppler shift calculations yield a speed of approximately 10,526 m/sec (37,893 km/h), suggesting that the signal originated from an object approaching Earth. Shown here are the steps to calculate the Doppler shift speed. For context, the average speed of asteroids is around 18–20 km/s, while comets that impact Earth typically travel at about 30 km/s. In comparison, the human-made Voyager spacecraft 1 and 2 are currently traveling at speeds of 15 to 17 km/s.
Image NASA: example of atmospheric entry, showing the Mars Exploration Rover aeroshell (MER).
For a better understanding, I added the illustration of the Mars Exploration Rover’s entry into the Mars atmosphere. NASA did choose this shape for its aerodynamic properties. It is possible that the Wow! signal originated from a UFO about to enter Earth’s atmosphere, as much as any other interpretation.
In conclusion, the Wow! signal appears to have originated from an unknown type of source that was approaching Earth at a speed of 10.5 km/s, as indicated by observations and these calculations. It is unknown if this is due to the source’s approach to Earth or the galaxy’s relative movement to Earth. Both scenarios are possible.
Investigations of the Wow! signal to date have not accounted for or mentioned the Doppler blueshift of the signal.
Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 1Doppler Shift Calculations for Wow! signal (1977), Page 2
I’m skeptical of UFO claims made by researchers based solely on secondhand anecdotes. It’s more valuable to hear direct testimony from a UFO witness themselves, rather than relying on third-party accounts. I personally reported UFO sightings to official channels, and as a UFO witness, they quoted my testimony anonymously:
Reference: Irish Salthill UFO sighting recalled
An Irish witness at Galway recalled a UFO incident from 1986
Why? Witnesses should be allowed to stay anonymous, but non-anonymous testimony should be prioritized. To be able to report a sighting only in anonymous mode takes away the credibility of the witness account. Anyone can fabricate a tale, overflow databases with false information, and overwhelm legitimate reporting.
The issue with relying solely on secondhand and anecdotal accounts of UFO sightings is a significant one. Retelling anecdotes can lead to the distortion of facts, the embellishment of stories, and the loss of crucial details. By hearing eyewitness accounts firsthand from a UFO witness, we can gain a more accurate understanding of the events in question.
Asking a UFO witness about their desire for anonymity and giving them the option to disclose their identities would enhance transparency and trustworthiness. Such an arrangement would allow for a more nuanced understanding of the evidence and potentially lead to more credible investigations.
NUFORC witness report form
In fact, some UFO research organizations, such as the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), do offer a UFO witness the option to remain anonymous or to provide their contact information. However, this is not always the case, and we need more transparency in this area.
The National UFO Reporting Center Dedicated to the collection and dissemination of objective UFO/UAP data https://nuforc.org
Reference: Carl Sagan, Long wavelength ultraviolet photoproduction of amino acids on the primitive Earth
“Hello, Aliens!”: Voyager Probes Get Sagan’s First Broadcast
In 1972 and 1977, Carl Sagan sent the first messages to extraterrestrials into space on the panels of the space probes Pioneer 10 & 11 and the Golden Record of Voyager 1 & 2.
The gold-plated aluminum cover (L) of the Voyager golden record (R) both protects it from micrometeorite bombardment and also provides a key to playing it and deciphering Earth’s location. NASA
It contains greetings and wishes for peace from the people of Earth in 55 languages. Earthlings extend their friendship, wish happiness and health, and express hope to one day meet their cosmic neighbors. They also express the desire for goodwill and harmony among all beings in the universe.
Reference: Golden Record Greetings – NASA Science
Each of the Voyager spacecraft, launched in 1977, carried a golden phonograph record. One of its purposes was to send a message to extraterrestrials who might find the spacecraft as it journeyed through interstellar space.
The greetings are in alphabetical order, from Akkadian (an extinct language for over 2000 years) to Wu Chinese. The inclusion of Akkadian in this earthly record is pretty strange. One day, these transmissions might be intercepted as they pass through space by an alien culture.
With the help of the included pulsar map, these aliens could potentially find Earth. Pulsars are stars that rhythmically emit radiation, like interstellar lighthouses. We can use them as a cosmic GPS.
Over long periods of time, the frequency of a pulsar slows down. Thus the pulsar map designed by scientist Frank Drake and graphic artist Linda Salzman Sagan is not only a determination of the position of our Earth in space, but the map also precisely pinpoints the position of Earth in time: 1971.
Speculation about the subject makes for the greatest sci-fi story ever told. This is particularly true when we consider the included Mesopotamian-language greeting and the Annunaki creation myths—some of which have been popularized by Zecharia Sitchin and others.
Of course, intercepting our space probes is extremely unlikely. It could take millions of years, if at all. But then again, the life expectancy of the Golden Records is 5 billion years.
“Extraordinary?” Sagan’s 1977 Standard Stuns UFO Dreamers
In 1977, when the film “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” was released, Washington Post readers first heard of the “Sagan Standard”: that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.“
Carl Sagan uttered this aphorism in relation to the first film scene. In the scene, planes were found in the Sahara which years earlier disappeared in the Bermuda Triangle. The notion of extraordinary claims was central to Sagan’s skepticism about extraterrestrial causes.
“There is no evidence that lights in the sky or the disappearance of ships or planes are due to extraterrestrial interference (in the Bermuda Triangle)”, Sagan said.
Reference: Second View, Sagan on ‘Encounters’
NEW YORK — Carl Sagan, the 43-year-old glamor boy of astronomy, is hunched down in the fifth row of the Ziegfeld Theater on West 54th Street, waiting for the five o’clock matinee to roll. Whoooooosh! A sandstorm rages across the screen, enveloping viewers in a yellow haze.
Bermuda Triangle, 1986: Nine years later, in the shadowy depths of the North Atlantic, the Russian nuclear submarine K-219 vanished beneath the waves. It left a chilling mystery in its wake. As the vessel settled silently on the ocean floor—nearly 18,000 feet (5.5 kilometers) below the surface—a more disturbing discovery emerged. The submarine’s full arsenal of nuclear warheads had inexplicably disappeared, raising extraordinary claims about what might have occurred.
Any attempt to retrieve or remove the warheads should have been impossible at such an unfathomable depth. It was beyond the reach of all human technology in 1986. Yet, the weapons had vanished nonetheless, leaving behind only unanswered questions and a silence as deep as the ocean itself.
Official records claim that the catastrophic incident aboard K-219 took place hundreds of miles from the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. This spot was the very location where the lost submarine ultimately came to rest (Wikipedia).
Yet this contradiction is curious, to say the least, inviting extraordinary claims and speculations.
Deep-Sea Riddle: Vanished Russian Nukes Hide Under Triangle
Consult the Marine Gazetteer Map, and you’ll notice a small dot nestled between Miami and Bermuda. This is the location of the Hatteras Abyssal Plain. In other words, it is inside the notorious Bermuda Triangle.
Science moves forward through doubt, evidence, and the enduring patience to pursue both. But in a case like this, extraordinary claims about the vanished nukes cannot help but intrigue those. These claims make people wonder what secrets still lie hidden beneath those mysterious waters.
Location of the sunk Russian nuclear submarine K-219. Until now, no publication has linked it’s sinking and the disappearance of it’s nuclear arsenal to the presence of the Bermuda Triangle.
Cosmos Mania: Sagan Turns the Universe into Prime-Time TV
In 1980 the name Sagan finally became a household name when Carl presented his extraordinarily successful TV series “Cosmos.”
The series covered topics ranging from the origin of life to a perspective of our place in the universe.
The Sagan Standard, first phrased in the Washington Post article from December 1977, that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” became the mantra of the series. Carl claimed that nearly every UFO sighting is based on optical illusions and misinterpretations.
Carl Sagan wrote regarding UFO claims:
“When confronted with a claim for which there is no compelling evidence, we should reserve judgment. I know of no evidence for visits to Earth by beings from other worlds.”
UFO Smackdown: “Show Me the Proof,” Says Science Superstar
Carl Sagan, “The Demon-Haunted World” (1995), Ch. 11 (The Fine Art of Baloney Detection)
Rather than treating UFO research as a rigorous scientific inquiry into possibly extraterrestrial phenomena, Sagan rejected its validity on the grounds that it lacked the ‘extraordinary’ UFO evidence required by the scientific method and rested largely on unreliable eyewitness testimony, demonstrating his UFO skepticism.
Further reading: UFO Truth: Witnesses, Speak Out!
Witnesses should be allowed to stay anonymous, but non-anonymous testimony should be prioritized.
Radio Roulette: SETI’s Slow-Motion Search for Martian Pen Pals
Instead, he argued, the most promising avenue for detecting alien life was the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) via radio astronomy—a point he dramatized in his 1985 novel Contact. Of course, SETI has its own fundamental limitation: due to the speed at which radio signals travel, any interstellar message exchange could potentially experience lengthy delays, like years, decades, or centuries.
Interstellar two-way communication easily requires centuries, ruling it out for spontaneous chats. Despite this limitation, SETI’s search continues in hopes of finding concrete UFO evidence.
The shooting of “Contact” started in September 1996. Sagan himself was supposed to appear in a cameo, but he passed away 2 months after the shooting began. Sagan had been working on this project since 1979.
THE FIRST “PARADOX”: Reason meets mysticism
Ur-Uatchti, a winged sun disk, was once mandated to adorn every temple as protection against evil.
Throughout his career, Sagan loathed sloppy thinking. He famously derided Erich von Däniken’s ancient-astronaut theories—that extraterrestrials had a hand in erecting the pyramids—as nothing more than fanciful speculation, lacking credible UFO evidence.
And yet, in 1981, he purchased the Sphinx Head Tomb, the headquarters of Cornell University’s oldest secret honors society, designed in hauntingly authentic Egyptian style.
What could possibly have enticed Carl Sagan—the very embodiment of rational, evidence-driven science—to take up residence in a building modeled on an Egyptian tomb? Granite walls etched with hieroglyphs, a false burial chamber—this was a home more temple than townhouse, a place charged with the power of millennia.
Those close to him sensed a shift. His daughter, Sasha, later recalled that almost immediately after moving in, her father’s health began to falter. The scientist who probed the furthest reaches of space found himself besieged by a far more intimate mystery: a sudden decline that culminated in his death on the winter solstice of 1996.
Reference: Lessons of Immortality and Mortality From My Father, Carl Sagan
What compelled a scientist such as Carl Sagan to relocate into a structure reminiscent of an Egyptian tomb? Did the ancient mystique of the tomb hold a deeper sway over even the sharpest mind of his generation? The first paradox has been set in stone—yet its enigma endures.
In 1971 Dr. Sagan, writing under the pseudonym “Mr. X” described his history of marijuana use.
As the paragon of reasoned, evidence-based science, what could have possibly prompted Carl Sagan to light up a joint? He argued that marijuana can be a powerful tool for facilitating mind expansion. When he was high, he had breakthroughs in knowledge and moments of true insight, according to his experience.
He vigorously defended the validity of these pot-fueled realizations:
“There is a myth about such highs: the user has an illusion of great insight, but it does not survive scrutiny in the morning. I am convinced that this is an error and that the devastating insights achieved when high are real insights; the main problem is putting these insights in a form acceptable to the quite different self that we are when we’re down the next day. Some of the hardest work I’ve ever done has been to put such insights down on tape or in writing. The problem is that ten even more interesting ideas or images have to be lost in the effort of recording one.”
Reference: Psychiatrist Grinspoon Smoked Pot with Sagan—A Lot
Dr. Lester Grinspoon, associate professor emeritus of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, recalls exploring the cosmos with a little help from cannabis, and his best friend Carl Sagan.
In the context of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence Search, in 1980 the mathematical physicist and cosmologist Frank J. Tipler published a paper, “Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist.”
Reference: Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist, Tipler, F. J.
Tipler sought a universal principle to explain the Fermi Paradox: the apparent absence of extraterrestrial beings on Earth. He contended that if extraterrestrial intelligent beings existed, then their manifestations would be obvious. Conversely, since there is no evidence of their presence, they do not exist.
Von Neumann Probes
Frank Tipler argued that if any extraterrestrial civilization ever built self-replicating von Neumann starprobes, those probes would grow exponentially. They would fill the galaxy in a few million years. Since we don’t see them here, Tipler concluded there are no other intelligent civilizations.
• Tipler assumed each probe would land on a new world and make just one or a few copies before moving on. However, he had no reason to limit its reproduction so drastically.
• Even if each probe were only 10 grams and doubled once per decade, in about 150 generations we’d have the mass of an entire galaxy. This conversion to machines would be on the order of 1 followed by 54 zeros grams (1 quindecillion tons). Moreover, this transformation would occur in less than 15 million years.
• Because we see no evidence of such galaxy-eating machines anywhere, Tipler said no one else ever invented them. Therefore, no one else is out there.
SAGAN’S RESPONSE
Carl Sagan pondered the arithmetic of Tipler’s solipsist argument. His response is a classic in the realm of science and philosophy. He draws attention to the limitations of our current knowledge and the vastness of the universe. By stating, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,” Sagan cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on what we don’t know.
Sagan and William I. Newman challenged Tipler’s assumptions and conclusions, proposing a more realistic colonization model based on population growth and organization. This alternative model estimates a galaxy-crossing time of approximately one billion years, significantly longer than Tipler’s few million years.
Sagan further suggests that self-replicating probes are subject to evolutionary divergence, imposing unacceptable risks to altruistic extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI). The ETI only communicate with other ETI through signals. This argument assumes that self-replicating machines are essentially uncontrollable because they must evolve.
Sagan and Newman also propose that the emergence of powerful weapons of mass destruction may impose a universal brake on unchecked expansion. This could potentially limit the spread of advanced civilizations. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of experimentation in resolving the Fermi Paradox. Systematic searches using radio telescopes and other tools are necessary to settle the question of whether we are alone in the universe.
Reference: The Solipsist Approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Sagan / Newman 1983QJRAS..24..113S Page 113
Terrestrial Shortsightedness
Imagine New York in 1894, its streets choked with the clatter of hooves. Its futurists were drowned in calculations of manure. They predicted that by 1944 New York would drown in horse manure.
The futurists only saw linearity: more carriages, more waste, an apocalypse of filth. However, they could not fathom the silent revolution already stirring—the internal combustion engine, the horseless carriage—a paradigm shift that would render their equations relics.
So too might we falter when envisioning the starfarers of tomorrow. To assume interstellar travel or contact must devour suns is to chain possibility to the physics of this moment. What of the technologies unimagined? The spacetime shortcuts, the dark energy harnessed, the self-replicating probes born of nanoengineering? The cosmos whispers of mysteries we have yet to decode.
Carl Sagan may have cautioned Tipler that his reasoning could mirror that of the horse-cart prophets. One may fail to see beyond the boundaries of the known. The universe is not merely a puzzle to solve with present tools. It is also a frontier that reshapes the solver. As we once tamed fire and split the atom, so too might we one day dance with the fabric of spacetime itself. The answer to the Fermi paradox may not lie in the scarcity of civilizations. It may lie in the humility of our assumptions.
After all, the stars are not merely endpoints. They are teachers. Their greatest lesson might be this: To traverse the light-years, we must first learn to think in ways as boundless as the dark between galaxies.
Reference: The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
By the late 1800s, large cities all around the world were drowning in horse manure. The London Times predicted in 1894 that in 50 years’ time, every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure.
“Alien lifeforms would visit Earth only if life in the universe is rare, but then there wouldn’t be enough alien visitors to explain the countless UFO reports.”
Did Carl Sagan privately believe in UFOs, despite his public skepticism? 🤔 Dive into ‘The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 6,’ which explores Sagan’s famous argument against extraterrestrial visits and fascinating claims about his alleged private views. Investigative journalist Paola Harris shares an account from Dr. J. Allen Hynek, suggesting Sagan might have admitted to believing UFOs were real, but couldn’t risk his research funding by speaking openly. Discover the tension between Sagan’s public stance and these intriguing allegations.
Sagan’s Defining Argument
The “Sagan Paradox” was first formulated in 1969 at an American symposium on the UFO phenomenon in Boston. Carl Sagan and Thornton Page served as co-chairs of this event. It was sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
The title of the symposium was: UFOs – The Scientific Debate
It was here that the renowned astrophysicist Carl Sagan advanced an argument. The argument was meant to explain why there could be no extraterrestrially crewed “flying saucers.”
The Boston War Memorial Auditorium, site of the AAAS symposium in December 26.-28. Dec. 1969
The Rare Earth Hypothesis: Sagan’s Core Premise for “THE SAGAN PARADOX”
Carl Sagan argued that the Earth had to be somehow special in the cosmos to attract the attention of aliens. The special position of the Earth is its life on it, which Sagan said is very rare in the cosmos.
Because life in the cosmos is so rare, according to Carl Sagan, there are not enough extraterrestrial civilizations in the vicinity of the Earth. Therefore, they cannot visit us in the huge numbers that the thousands of UFO sightings every year since 1947 suggest (~2312 yearly).
On the other hand, if there were actually as many alien civilizations as the number of sightings suggests, then life on Earth would not be special. Consequently, our planet would not be worth visiting with a spaceship.
As a result, UFOs controlled by aliens could not exist but are exclusively false alerts, implied Sagan.
Mock-up and additional enhancement of the famous British Calvine UFO photo, after Nick Pope. The original six photos are in color. The MOD has blocked their release until 2072. Wikipedia
The core of this paradox, as presented by Sagan, lies in the tension between the potential number of advanced technical civilizations in the galaxy and the lack of convincing evidence for frequent visits to Earth.
Sagan’s Skepticism: Witness Testimony
Carl Sagan regarded witness evidence for UFOs as insufficient to constitute robust scientific proof. He attributed accounts to human fallibilities, including emotional desire, boredom, paranoia, and a low tolerance for ambiguity. Consequently, these factors often result in self-deception and the misinterpretation of ordinary phenomena.
Photographic Evidence
Sagan also found UFO photographs unconvincing, due to their poor quality and ease of manipulation. Moreover, the lack of physical evidence and the influence of psychological and cultural factors were concerning. They all failed to meet the high standards required for extraordinary claims under the scientific method.
Would Sagan Have Accepted the Pentagon’s UAP Videos?
Regardless of Carl Sagan’s private views, his public stance on UFOs was unequivocal. He dismissed them as either misidentifications or deliberate hoaxes. This position dominated UFO discourse for decades. Moreover, it continues to influence the field, where the default approach among many researchers remains the systematic debunking of sightings—often without thorough evaluation.
This mindset, reinforced by ‘Sagan’s Paradox’ and his famous dictum ‘extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,’ gave rise to a peculiar scientific orthodoxy. While the existence of extraterrestrial life is deemed plausible, any connection between UFOs and alien intelligence is treated as inherently implausible. This conclusion is enforced rather than investigated.
Sagan was convinced that given the number of stars in the universe—”billions and billions” as he used to say—the chances are very high that highly developed civilizations must exist. He simply doubted that emissaries from these civilizations had a habit of appearing at distant farms. He also doubted their emergence above Uncle Fritz’s garden, as popular reports often claimed.
Speaking of the back garden
UFO sighting by Dennis & Mandy. The object was seen within just a few meters from the backyard of the authors house. The author didn’t see this UFO himself. What he and his wife did notice at night was a strange “hum”, that persisted for long periods of time.
Sound of the “hum”.
The sound and, for instance, the UFO pictured here, remained in place for over 20 minutes. Planes don’t remain stationary for such extended periods of time.
“Erich” marks the location of the author’s house. “Dennis and Mandy” witnessed the UAP sighting—initially unknown to the author. He later interviewed them in person because he suspected he was being pranked.
Carl Sagan’s Alleged Private Beliefs on UFOs: An Examination
“Renowned astronomer and astrophysicist Dr. Carl Sagan revealed to Dr. J. Allen Hynek that he believed UFOs were real. However, he avoided any public statements to prevent the loss of academic research funding.“
This allegation suggests a divergence between Sagan’s public skepticism and his private views.
Paola Harris’s Account: Sagan’s Alleged Admission
Investigative journalist Paola Leopizzi-Harris met astronomer, professor, and UFO researcher J. Allen Hynek in 1978 at CUFOS, the Center for UFO Studies. Upon learning Harris was Italian-American, Dr. Allen Hynek enlisted her for translation work. Moreover, she was his assistant in UFO investigations. Their collaboration occurred mainly from 1980 to 1986. This association provided her with significant exposure to UFO research and key individuals involved in the subject.
According to Paola Harris :
“My recollection is that Hynek said it was backstage at one of the many Johnny Carson Tonight shows Sagan did. He basically said (to Hynek) in 1984, ‘I know UFOs are real, but I would not risk my research funding, as you do, to talk openly about them in public.’ ” Paola Leopizzi-Harris
This quote has been verified by Paola Leopizzi-Harris.
Another correspondent, Bryce Zabel, said Sagan had to downplay his passionate belief in extraterrestrials. This was in order to avoid being written off as a crank—a cool crank but a crank nonetheless: “The truth of the matter, to me, is that he felt giving any quarter on the UFO issue could kill his career.”
Debating UFOs with Carl Sagan
Early in Bryce Zabel’s TV career, he debated UFO reality with Carl in a PBS parking lot after the Voyager II Saturn encounter.
The UFOs Carl Sagan Was Convinced Of But Couldn’t Talk About
Writer Bryce Zabel recalls a dispute with Sagan on the topic in a parking lot 40 years ago, during the Voyager 2 flyby — which changed Zabel’s career.
DEEP DIVE
The following is a fact check of this anecdote: Dr. J. Allen Hynek once remarked about Carl Sagan: “I knew Carl Sagan. We had lunch one day and he said that UFOs were bunk. I asked him his thoughts on a multitude of cases and he said, ‘don’t know anything about it”. Then I said, ‘Carl, you know we scientists are not supposed to comment on anything we haven’t sufficiently studied and he said, ‘yes, I know, but I don’t have the time’. True or false?
Hynek vs. Sagan: UFOs, Science, and the Battle for Belief
Reference: UFO’s: A Scientific Debate, Papers presented at a symposium sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, held in Boston on Dec. 26-27, 1969, Pages 265 – 275, https://archive.org/details/ufosscientificde0000unse
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