Flaws in the Dark Forest Game Theory: A Closer Look

“I don’t know why you say goodbye, I say hello.”
The Beatles ‧ 1967

Why Liu Cixin’s Chilling Vision May Exaggerate the Dangers – in Space and on Earth

Dark Forest Hypothesis

1. A Tale of Two Dark Forests

Liu Cixin’s award-winning trilogy Remembrance of Earth’s Past (commonly called The Three-Body Problem series) popularized the Dark Forest Hypothesis: in a universe where every civilization fears annihilation and resources appear scarce, the safest strategy is absolute silence – or a pre-emptive strike on anything that betrays its position.

Initial Dark Forest Assumptions (click for full PDF here)

Yet, just as children often overestimate the terrors of a literal dark forest, adults may be overestimating the hazards of its cosmic counterpart. Both fears rest on questionable assumptions about scarcity, detectability, and universal hostility.

2. How Dark Is the Cosmic Forest – Really?

2.1 Abundant Resources
• Asteroid mining makes most “resource wars” unnecessary.
– Example: NASA’s current Psyche mission targets a metal-rich asteroid whose contents have often been cited – though the estimate is highly speculative – as being worth about $100,000 quadrillion.
– Lower gravity and higher ore purity mean it is far easier to extract metals in space than to invade a habitable planet.

• Science-fiction authors anticipated this logic well before the 1970s, from Garrett P. Serviss (1898) to Isaac Asimov (1953) and Poul Anderson (1963-65).

2.2 Alternative Solutions to the Fermi Paradox

The silence we observe could stem from:
• the brevity of civilizations’ effective ‘radio window‘ (50-70 years);
• the Sanctuary Hypothesis (ETI nurture developing planets without revealing themselves);
• crewed or uncrewed craft-based exploration rather than radio beacons (compare UAP/UFO debate). These sightings challenge the premise of universal silence.

ABC 7 NEWS, December 2024

2.3 Humanity Has Already Broadcast

Humankind has been broadcasting TV and radio signals since the 1930s. These signals can be received hundreds of light-years away. This may have triggered ETs curiosity.

Then, between 1945 and 1961, Earth detonated more than 2,000 nuclear devices. Each blast produced an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strong enough to be detected light-years away.

If an advanced civilization had been listening to early broadcasts of the Olympics, for instance, they’d have been surprised to see Earth suddenly erupting in artificial, high-energy flashes at irregular intervals.

The most powerful explosion was ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo broadcast message and could have been received anywhere in the Milky Way, which may contain 300–500 million habitable planets.

In effect, we have already shouted our existence into the forest; worrying about a polite radio greeting now is like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The Ostrich Problem: Silence Isn’t Safety

If ETIs detected our radio signature, broadcast or EMP, but hear no follow-up, they might assume:

We’re hiding (suspicious).
We’re unstable (dangerous).
We’re ignorant (vulnerable).

3. Game-Theory Revisions: Three Big “What-Ifs”

Here are some of the big “what ifs” that challenge the whole “hide or attack” idea:

3.1 Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) on a cosmic scale
If retaliation is credible – and especially if the cost of failure is extinction – first strikes lose their appeal, exactly as they did with Cold War nuclear strategy. Think about our own history with nuclear weapons. The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is a huge deterrent. What if that applies on a cosmic scale too? Let’s say there’s a certain chance of a successful attack. And, crucially, if an attack fails, the attacking civilization faces a really nasty consequence – let’s call it the disaster of retaliation. We’re talking about something far worse than just wasting resources.

Here’s how that changes the math for choosing to “Attack”:

If one civilization tries to hit another:

There’s a certain chance it pulls it off. The attacker survives, though it still pays the cost of the attack, while the other civilization is wiped out.

But, there’s also a chance the attack completely flops. In that nightmare scenario, the attacker is the one facing the disaster of retaliation (or even total annihilation if the other civilization hits back hard), and the target is still around and really angry.

So, when you consider whether to attack, you have to weigh these probabilities. If the chance of a successful attack is low, or if the disaster of retaliation is utterly catastrophic (like in MAD), then the appeal of attacking first plummets. It might even make more sense to just stay hidden, which totally undermines the “attack first” logic.

3.2 The Impossibility of Hiding

Sufficiently advanced telescopes detect radio signatures and other technosignatures whether or not we transmit on purpose. Admittedly, humankind has only transmitted purposefully for only a bit over 67 hours in its entire history. But this doesn’t reduce over a century of radio and TV signals that are already out there. Within this 130 light-year bubble (260 light-years across) there exist between 700-1,140 habitable worlds. If stealth is futile, the strategic game reduces to “communicate or attack,” and communication becomes the cheaper, more mature, safer option.

The Dark Forest idea hinges on the ability to stay hidden. But what if detection is inevitable? Imagine super-advanced telescopes that can spot signs of life without anyone broadcasting a thing. In that case, the “Hide” strategy basically becomes the same as “Broadcast” – you’re going to be found either way. The whole benefit of trying to hide just disappears.

If being detected while hiding is as bad as outright annihilation, then:
– If both civilizations hide → annihilation.
– If one hides and one broadcasts → annihilation.
– If one hides and one attacks → annihilation.

This scenario pretty much pulls “Hide” off the table as a viable survival strategy. It forces civilizations into a choice between broadcasting or attacking, since there’s no real hiding place left.

3.3 Civilizational Diversity
Assuming every species is paranoid and violent ignores the probability distribution of motives. If even a modest fraction are cooperative, expected-value calculations tilt toward cautious outreach rather than universal suppression.

“Our ability to reach unity in diversity will be the beauty and the test of our civilization”, Mahatma Gandhi

Perhaps the biggest assumption of the Dark Forest is that every civilization out there is a paranoid, aggressive killer. But is that realistic? We can think about different “types” of players in our cosmic game. What if there’s a certain probability that a civilization is hostile, and also a probability that it’s cooperative?

Now, the overall benefit of broadcasting changes dramatically, depending on who you meet. It’s a blend of the risk of annihilation if you meet a hostile civilization, and the potential benefit of survival and cooperation if you meet a friendly one.

If the probability of encountering a cooperative civilization is high enough, and the benefits of cooperation are truly significant, then suddenly, broadcasting might actually be a better bet than attacking. It opens the door to the idea that some civilizations might actually try to say “hello” rather than “kaboom.”

So, while the Dark Forest is a chilling thought experiment, these added factors suggest the universe might be a bit more complex than just a cosmic shooting gallery.

4. Earth’s Own “Dark Forests”: Fear vs. Fact

U.S. National Parks – millions of annual visits into true wilderness – average roughly 0.11 deaths per 100,000 recreational visits. The leading causes are drownings (20.9%), car accidents (17.3%), medical events (12%), and suicides (12.4%), not wolf packs or bear maulings.

A global study of carnivore attacks from 1950 to 2019 documented 5,440 attacks, with about one in three being fatal. Likewise, tiger attacks in India average 34 deaths per year; direct wildlife fatalities in the United States hover around eight. Our imagination inflates the danger of forests much as it inflates the peril of first contact.

In the Star Trek movie “First Contact,” the Dark Forest of the human heart (causing a nuclear Armageddon) proved much more dangerous than the meeting with the Vulcan emissary.

5. Why Would ETIs Attack Us?

Possible motives beyond resources:

First-strike paranoia (fear of future competition).
Ideological conflict (ethics, expansionism).
Scientific curiosity (studying emerging civilizations).

But if aliens wanted resources, they’d mine asteroids, not Earth. (Take that, Zecharia Sitchin – your ancient alien gold-mining slaves theory doesn’t hold up when space is full of purer, easier-to-extract metals.)

6. UAPs & the Pentagon’s Admission: Are They Already Here?

If Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) are extraterrestrial probes:

They’ve seen our nukes, satellites, and wars.
Silence may look like hostility.
A controlled message (math, music, science) could be safer than ambiguity.

The Signal

A Science Fiction Short Story: In a universe filled with mysteries, signaling UAPs could change everything.

7. Synthesis: From Paranoia to Policy

Accept the beacon we have already lit (Radio and TV bubble, nuclear tests) and
Send cautious, non-threatening signals (math, art, science).
Study apparent probes (UAPs/UFOs) with scientific rigor, but get out of the denial-loop.
Prepare a diplomatic framework – a “UN for exocivilizations” – before we need it.
Invest in asteroid-mining technology; abundance is the best antidote to resource anxiety.

The universe may contain dangers, but the data – from asteroid economics to wilderness safety statistics – suggests we routinely overrate them. Instead of cowering in silence, humanity should engage with the cosmos thoughtfully. We must do so armed with game-theoretic prudence, technological optimism, and a clear appreciation of how rarely the monsters in our dark forests turn out to be real.

Stop Whispering, Start Strategizing!

The Dark Forest Game Theory Equations (PDF)

References:

National Park Service. (n.d.). Deaths in National Parks. U.S. National Park Service. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/mortality-data.htm

Skylis, M. B. (2024, February 27). Data Reveal How People Die in National Parks. Backpacker. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.backpacker.com/survival/deaths-in-national-parks/

Handwerk, B. (2023, January 31). What 70 Years of Data Says About Where Predators Kill Humans. Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/where-lions-and-tigers-and-wolves-attack-and-kill-humans-180981539

Conover, M. R. (2019). Numbers of Human Fatalities, Injuries, and Illnesses in the United States Due to Wildlife. Human–Wildlife Interactions, 13(2), 12. Retrieved June 14, 2025, from https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1544&context=hwi

APPENDIX: THE THREE BODY PROBLEM in brief

Liu Cixin’s *Remembrance of Earth’s Past* trilogy, commonly known as “The Three-Body Problem” series, is a sweeping hard science fiction epic that explores humanity’s first contact with an alien civilization and the existential threats that follow.

1. The Three-Body Problem (三体):
humanity learns an invasion fleet will arrive in 450 years; physics itself is sabotaged by proton-sized “sophons.”

Initial Setup & The Cultural Revolution:
The story begins in China during the tumultuous Cultural Revolution, where astrophysicist Ye Wenjie witnesses the brutal death of her father. Disillusioned with humanity, she is later recruited to a secret military project called “Red Coast,” a deep-space listening station. There, she discovers a method to amplify radio signals using the sun and, in a moment of profound despair, broadcasts a message into space, essentially inviting alien intervention.

Present Day Mystery:
Decades later, in the early 21st century, a series of mysterious suicides among prominent scientists plagues the world. Detective Shi Qiang (Da Shi) investigates, collaborating with nanotechnologist Wang Miao. Wang becomes entangled with a mysterious online VR game called “Three Body,” which simulates a chaotic planet experiencing extreme climatic shifts due to the gravitational pull of three suns.

The Trisolarans Revealed:
Through the game and his investigation, Wang uncovers a vast conspiracy: the Earth-Trisolaris Organization (ETO), a secret society formed by humans who worship the Trisolarans and desire Earth’s destruction. The Trisolarans are the inhabitants of the chaotic “Three-Body” planet. Their civilization has been repeatedly destroyed by their unpredictable system, leading them to seek a new, stable home – Earth. They are on their way, but their fleet will take approximately 450 years to arrive.

Sophon Blockade:
To prevent humanity from developing technology capable of resisting their invasion, the Trisolarans deploy “sophons” – proton-sized supercomputers that unfold into higher dimensions, act as omnipresent spies, and subtly disrupt fundamental physics research on Earth, creating the illusion that science is failing. The first book ends with humanity aware of the impending invasion but hamstrung by the sophon blockade.

2. The Dark Forest (黑暗森林):
Luo Ji invents cosmic MAD – threatening to broadcast Trisolaris’s coordinates – and forces a temporary peace.

The Crisis Era and Wallfacers: With the Trisolaran invasion fleet on its way and sophons making all human communications transparent to the aliens, humanity enters the “Crisis Era.” To develop secret strategies, the United Nations designates four “Wallfacers” – individuals granted immense resources and autonomy to devise plans that remain entirely within their own minds, impenetrable by sophons.

Luo Ji and Cosmic Sociology:
Among the Wallfacers is the initially reluctant and cynical astrophysicist Luo Ji. Unlike the others, he doesn’t have a clear military or scientific background. He slowly develops the “Dark Forest Hypothesis” (based on insights from Ye Wenjie): the universe is a “dark forest” filled with advanced civilizations, each acting as a silent, paranoid hunter. Any civilization that reveals its location becomes a target for pre-emptive destruction, as there’s no way to guarantee another civilization’s intentions are benign, and rapid technological explosion makes any unknown a potential existential threat.

The Deterrence Era:
Luo Ji’s seemingly bizarre actions as a Wallfacer lead to his plan: he threatens to broadcast the coordinates of the Trisolaran home system to the entire galaxy, a suicidal act that would doom both Trisolaris and Earth (due to Earth’s proximity). This threat, known as “Dark Forest Deterrence,” forces the Trisolarans into an uneasy peace, as they realize Luo Ji can enact mutual annihilation. This ushers in the “Deterrence Era,” a fragile peace enforced by the constant threat of a “Swordholder” (Luo Ji) initiating the broadcast.

The Great Fleet Annihilation:
Humanity flourishes during this era, building powerful space fleets, believing they have achieved parity with the Trisolarans. However, when the first Trisolaran probe (“the Droplet”) finally arrives, it effortlessly annihilates Earth’s entire space armada, revealing the vast technological superiority of the Trisolarans and shattering humanity’s hubris.

3. Death’s End (死神永生):
deterrence fails, higher-dimensional weapons collapse the Solar System, and the protagonists ultimately sacrifice themselves so the universe can “bounce” and begin anew.

New Challenges and the Swordholder:
The Deterrence Era continues, but Luo Ji is aging, and a new “Swordholder” must be chosen. The burden falls upon Cheng Xin, a kind and compassionate aerospace engineer. Her appointment is a calculated move by the Trisolarans, who correctly predict her moral nature will prevent her from activating the deterrence in a crisis. When the Trisolarans test the deterrence by attacking Earth’s broadcast stations, Cheng Xin hesitates, allowing them to take control of Earth.

Humanity’s Flight and Cosmic Revelations:
A few human starships that had escaped the initial Droplet attack (including one that had gone rogue much earlier) manage to broadcast the Trisolaran coordinates, leading to the destruction of the Trisolaran home system by a higher-dimensional alien weapon. Earth, however, is then also targeted by a “Dark Forest” attack.

Dimensional Collapse and Universe’s End:
Humanity faces escalating cosmic threats, including:

Two-Dimensional Attacks:
The ultimate “Dark Forest” weapon, a “photoid,” collapses the Solar System into two dimensions, an irreversible process that kills almost all of humanity.

Light-Speed Travel:
Cheng Xin and a few others escape on a light-speed capable ship. They encounter the former “brain-only” ambassador, Yun Tianming, who sends cryptic fairy tales that contain vital information about higher-dimensional physics and the nature of the universe.

Micro-Universes and The Big Bounce:
The narrative expands to encompass the universe’s ultimate fate. It’s revealed that advanced civilizations, to survive cosmic catastrophes like dimensional collapse, create “mini-universes.” However, the proliferation of these mini-universes is draining mass from the main universe, preventing its “Big Bounce” (a theoretical cyclical collapse and rebirth).

The Final Choice:
Ultimately, Cheng Xin and a few companions, after millennia of wandering the cosmos and witnessing countless cosmic events and the end of the universe itself, are faced with a profound choice: contribute their own remaining mass to the main universe’s rebirth, effectively ceasing to exist, or remain in their isolated mini-universe. They choose to return their mass, hoping to contribute to the cycle of universal renewal.

The trilogy is renowned for its grand scale, complex scientific concepts, and unflinching exploration of humanity’s place in a vast, indifferent, and dangerous cosmos. It presents a grim, yet intellectually stimulating, vision of interstellar survival.

June 7, 2025June 14, 2025

EARTH TO E.T.: WE’VE GONE GHOST!

Earth once blared its presence into space with powerful radio and TV signals—then fell almost silent as we switched to digital and cable. In just a few fleeting decades, our planet’s once-booming “broadcast bubble” shrank to faint whispers, changing Earth’s radio signature. This reshapes our view of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox. Discover why that brief broadcast window matters. Is it time for humankind to shift from passive listening (SETI) to actively waving hello to the stars with powerful, deliberate beacons (METI)?

1. Early Radio History and Speculation

Early radio transmissions were generally weak. Therefore, they likely did not penetrate the ionosphere. However, as technology advanced, Earth’s radio signature grew. It marked our planet’s cosmic presence.

In the early years of the twentieth century, there was speculation that Extraterrestrials were trying to contact human beings by radio signals. In 1919, Marconi himself encouraged this speculation, claiming he was receiving strange transmissions resembling Morse code, possibly from outer space.

RKO Radio Pictures Inc., commonly known as RKO, was one of the first film production and distribution companies of Hollywoods Golden Age. RKO eventually expanded its operations to include television broadcasting.

The sound played during the “A Radio Picture” logo from 1929 is Morse code.

From the beginning, their logo featured a transmission tower relaying a Morse code sequence: VVV A RADIO PICTURE VVVV. “VVV” in Morse code means “attention, incoming message”. “VVVV” may mean: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus “The Force of Truth Comes Alive”

2. The Rise of Detectable Signals

By 1931, about 25 TV stations in the U.S. were broadcasting television. And those who worry about Carl Sagan’s novel “Contact”: Germany began TV broadcasting in 1935. Any aliens watching Hitler speak in 1936 may have been more excited by Dolores Del Rio, Ginger Rogers, Fred Astaire and King Kong. (Picture: The special effects crew behind the set of “A Radio Picture” in 1929.)

The “Golden Age of Radio” and the subsequent rise of analog television broadcasting in the mid-20th century marked the first substantial contribution towards Earth’s technosignature. The total estimated radio power escaping into space reached tens to hundreds of megawatts by the 1970s. Powerful omnidirectional, analog signals characterized this period. This created an easily detectable “radio bubble” around Earth.

Radio power from TV signals excaping into space, reference: **A-Megawatt-Analysis-of-Anthropogenic-Emissions-into-Outer-Space-1900-2025.pdf** **(PDF 1)**

3. Earth as a Cosmic Mirror

In the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), Earth’s radio emissions serve as a “cosmic mirror,” offering a tangible reference for the kinds of signals a distant, technologically advanced civilization might transmit—signals that, in turn, we might hypothetically detect.

4. The Decline of Broad Leakage

TV stations are growing, but their space-bound signal leakage is shrinking as they abandon over-the-air broadcasts. Our peak broad signal leakage—key to the Drake Equation—began falling as focused, less-leaky communication technologies emerged. This transition includes:

Satellite Communications: Becoming widespread from the 1970s and 1980s onwards, satellite transmissions are generally directed point-to-point, reducing broad leakage.
Cable Television and Fiber Optics: The increasing use of cable TV (reducing over-the-air television broadcasts) and later, fiber optic cables for a vast amount of data transmission. The internet significantly cut down on the amount of radio frequency energy escaping into space. This shift became more pronounced from the late 20th century into the 21st century.
Digital Transmissions: Analog broadcasts, which were once more easily detected, are being replaced by digital signals. These digital signals are often more compressed and less likely to leak into space, contributing to Earth becoming “radio quiet” in terms of traditional broadcast leakage.

5. A Short Critique of the Drake Equation’s “L” Parameter

The Drake equation speculates on alien civilizations. In Drake’s original formulation, people often interpret “L” as the total lifespan of a technological civilization.

*The Drake Equation, Image ©* https://sciencenotes.org, Anne Helmenstine

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals.

Earth’s broad radio leakage lasted roughly from the 1930s until the 1980s–90s.
Thus, our planet broadcast Drake-equation-style signals for only about 40–60 years.
Then we switched to spread-spectrum digital, satellite, cable, and internet communications. Now only random radar pings and digital blips leak into space, quickly blending into cosmic background noise (CMB).

A young Carl Sagan explains the Drake equation

Although the Drake equation was a playful practice in the last millennium, by its own metric humankind would no longer exist, because we don’t release significant radio leakage anymore. Hence, the Drake equation is somewhat obsolete. If Earth civilization is a typical technological civilization, then we can expect other civilizations to leave a similar footprint of “L”—about fifty years. That leaves almost no time for any astronomer to detect a signal.

Ever wondered about the Fermi paradox and why we hear nothing of our cosmic neighbors in the radio spectrum? Here is one possible explanation:

We are now almost radio silent in the cosmos!

But because our “L” was only a mean 50 years, that doesn’t mean that we are extinct! It’s just that we have upgraded our communication system. This explains why the focus of SETI is shifting, away from radio signals, towards bio signatures and other technosignatures, not just radiowaves.

The “L” (Longevity) variable in the Drake Equation is thus not a simple constant even for a single civilization.

Actually, trying to detect interstellar Extraterrestrial civilizations by radio-signatures is a futile endeavour: it’s like scrolling through static on an old TV and hoping to catch an intergalactic episode of I Love Lucy that’s been bouncing around space for a billion years. No advanced technological civilization would be using radiowaves travelling at a mere 300000 km/sec for interstellar communication. That would be like sending smoke signals across the ocean. The only alien radiowaves we can ever hope to receive are leaked planetary signals and possibly navigational beacons.

6. Analysis of Earth’s Current Radio Signature

The latest study on Earth’s radiosignature is from Sofia Z. Sheikh et al 2025 AJ 169 118: Earth Detecting Earth: At What Distance Could Earth’s Constellation of Technosignatures Be Detected with Present-day Technology?

Sheikh calculated the detectability of four types of radio emissions from Earth. One conclusion was that an observer can detect planetary radar (Arecibo message from 1975) from the greatest distance. This graphic exemplifies this:

For simplification, I have translated the graph from Sheikh’s study. Labels are written out and “AU” are converted into light-years and kilometers.

Sheikh overlooks that the Arecibo radar message was highly directional—only detectable along its precisely aimed, narrow path.

The Arecibo Message

The “Arecibo message” from 1974 lasted only 168 seconds. Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and the other organizers of the boadcast did make it clear that the message was intended not as a genuine attempt to contact extraterrestrials, but as a symbolic demonstration of human technological capability.

The Arecibo telescope in December 2021. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Any serious attempt at communication with ETI would have required using Arecibo to send continuous signals into space, not just for three minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arecibo_message

Arecibo telescope after its collapse (December 2021). Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Altogether, humankind sent two dozen messages intended for an extraterrestrial audience into space from different telescopes. The total combined efforts in all of history to contact Extraterrestrial civilizations amounted to a measly 62.7 hours of transmissions. Not even three days. That is almost nothing in the billions of years of history of the universe, or life on Earth.
Ref.: Major METI transmissions (PDF 2)

The Arecibo message, with its directional 20 trillion watts (450 kw actual), was sent to the globular cluster M13, 25,000 light-years away. But calculations indicate the signal only penetrates about 12 000 light-years before the interstellar medium (ISM) absorbs it. Pity—what a clever demonstration of human technological prowess that was.

7. Breakdown of Earth’s Transmission- and Key Signal Types

Directional transmission (METI )– you choose a known exoplanet or promising star, minimizing exposure of one’s civilization by targeting needles in haystack, amongst 300- 500 million stars. Takes forever. That is the current strategy, based on the Dark Forest Hypothesis.
Omnidirectional transmission (unintentional METI) – “everyone in the Galaxy” can eavesdrop; historically Earth’s leakage (TV, Radio and nuclear expolsions) was unintended METI.

Mobile Communication Leakage (omnidirectional): The Sheikh paper addressed leakage from LTE cellphone communication systems. Researchers estimate the impressive peak power leaking into space from mobile towers is approximately 4 GW. This pales into insignificance when we realize that an observer can only detect these signals from up to about 4 light-years away.
Planetary Radar (highly directional): Many radio telescopes can function as radar systems—for example, to measure the distances of Solar System planets or distant asteroids and to assess their probability of impacting Earth. And for about 62.7 hours these systems have also been used to send messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations.

The following key signal types were omitted from the study on Earth’s radio technosignatures in the Sheikh paper:

Television Signals (omnidirectional): Earth’s early Radio and TV bubble was omnidirectional. An observer can detect it in every direction. An extraterrestrial audience could theoretically detect analog television signals—which began broadcasting in the 1930s—from up to 111 light-years away, representing a historical “radio bubble” of our planet’s past emissions. Broadcasters transmitted these signals, which operated in the VHF and UHF ranges, with megawatts of power.
Radio Signals (omnidirectional): In contrast, AM and FM radio signals, do not penetrate into space as effectively as higher-frequency signals. While they are powerful enough for terrestrial reception, their intensity diminishes rapidly with distance, limiting their ability to escape Earth’s immediate vicinity into deep space.
Radar (directional): The post–World War II era saw significant, continuous growth in radar systems—military, air-traffic-control, and weather—which, despite their pulsed nature, delivered consistently high average power thanks to their high operating frequencies and widespread deployment. By the 2000s, radar emissions into space were estimated at several hundred megawatts. Radar is not omnidirectional. If ETI had instrumentation comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), they might detect our radar transmissions from distances up to approximately 300 light-years.
Military Radar (directional): Military radar systems are among the most powerful signals intentionally emitted from Earth. While specific power levels are often not publicly detailed, they are generally described as “significant”. A key characteristic of military radar is its directionality. These signals are designed to be highly directional, focusing their energy into narrow beams to achieve precise detection and tracking of targets. This focused power allows them to be very strong within their beam, making them highly detectable if an extraterrestrial observer is precisely aligned with that beam.
Nuclear Explosions (omnidirectional): Humankind has detonated 2,000 nuclear bombs since 1945. The Russian Tsar Bomba of 1961 was the most powerful, and its radio emissions were ten billion times stronger than the Arecibo message.

Using the link-budget formula (PDF 3), we calculate that the Tsar Bomb electromagnetic pulse (PDF 4) could have been (or will be) detected by advanced radiotelescope technology (SKA2) out to roughly 36,000 light-years.

Looking ahead, the capabilities of a more highly advanced extraterrestrial civilization might extend that range to about 1.17 million light-years. That is enough to encompass the volume of the Milky Way, which is estimated to contain 300–500 million habitable planets. Several dwarf galaxies also lie within this volume of space. The thermonuclear Tsar Bomb explosion was by far the strongest radio signal that Earth has ever sent into space.

SETI scientists argue that the short duration of nuclear electromagnetic pulses makes their detection unlikely. That may have been true if those EMP had been the only radio pulses coming from Earth. But as a matter of fact, Earth had been making waves for decades before the barrage of nuclear tests ended. The expanding TV and radio bubble made sure of that. And those broadcasts transmitted 24/7.

8. Challenges of Interstellar Detection: Signal Degradation and Cosmic Noise

How Space Wears Down Radio Signals: Distance and the Interstellar Medium
The journey of any radio signal across 10,000 light-years is governed by the inverse square law, which causes a dramatic reduction in signal intensity. Beyond simple weakening, the interstellar medium (ISM) acts as a complex distorting filter. The ISM gas between the stars can spread out a broadband signal over time. Tiny variations in electron density scatter the waves. That scattering not only stretches the signal in time and space but also produces rapid, unpredictable flickers in intensity. These scintillations can make a message impossible to decode. Such distortions get much worse at lower frequencies. That is why astronomers favor the 1–10 GHz “microwave window”, the best range for sending signals across interstellar space.

The Cosmic Veil: Distinguishing Signals from Noise
Space isn’t silent—it’s alive with radio chatter. From our Sun’s booming broadcasts to distant black holes belting out jets of particles, the universe drips with natural “noise.” that can easily mask any deliberate signal we send or hope to detect. Any terrestrial signal must be distinguished from the overwhelming natural radio background of the cosmos. This background includes pervasive sources like the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), which establishes a fundamental noise floor, and galactic background noise from synchrotron radiation. And are pulsars natural phenomena, mimicking certain characteristics of intelligent signals, or are they intelligent signals, misunderstood by humankinds igorance of the engineering capapilities of a Kardashev type III and IV ciilization? These questions pose a significant challenge for recognition.

9. Conclusion: The Reality of Interstellar Eavesdropping

The Hypothetical Tech Needed for Extraterrestrial Eavesdropping
For an extraterrestrial civilization to detect Earth’s radio technosignature from 10,000 light-years, it would require radio astronomy technology vastly superior to current human capabilities.

This would likely involve collecting areas orders of magnitude larger than our most powerful telescopes (potentially equivalent to tens of thousands of Arecibo-sized dishes), coupled with extremely low system temperatures (achieved through cryogenic cooling), wide bandwidths, and very long integration times to achieve the necessary signal-to-noise ratio.

The Real Odds: Why Earth’s Radio Shouts Are Mostly Whispers Across the Galaxy
In conclusion, while the theoretical detectability of Earth’s most powerful, directed radio emissions extends to galactic distances, the practical challenges of signal attenuation, interstellar distortion, and overwhelming cosmic noise mean that the vast majority of Earth’s radio footprint remains localized. The successful detection of Earth’s intelligent signal from 10,000 light-years would signify an extraordinary level of technological advancement on the part of the observing extraterrestrial civilization, far surpassing humanity’s current capabilities. This underscores the profound difficulty in interstellar communication and provides critical perspective for humanity’s ongoing search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

Tired of Waiting for E.T. to Call?
It’s Time to Make the First Move.

Our civilization’s radio tech signature offers a stark revelation: waiting passively to be discovered is a strategy doomed by the physics of communication and the trajectory of technology. Our own history serves as a cosmic mirror, reflecting the likely silence of other advanced societies. The prospects of being detected by chance are remarkably slim; our most powerful, intentional messages have been mere momentary shouts aimed with laser-like precision at impossibly small targets. Simultaneously, our best chance for accidental discovery—the omnidirectional “radio bubble”…is rapidly fading as we become more efficient and, consequently, “radio quiet.”

Cosmic Mirror

If we accept this fleeting, whispering technological phase as typical, we must conclude that waiting for another civilization’s leaky signals is as futile as them waiting for ours. The Great Silence may not be a lack of life, but a universe of civilizations that, like us, have outgrown noisy, inefficient broadcasting.

This realization demands a shift in strategy. To stand any chance of being detected, or of detecting others, we must embrace Active METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence). We cannot hope to find a needle in a cosmic haystack by chance; we must listen for the magnets. By understanding that we would need to build a powerful, sustained, and deliberate beacon to announce our presence, the cosmic mirror shows us precisely what we should be searching for. Committing to an active, intentional transmission is therefore not just an act of introduction; it is the most logical step toward refining our own search, transforming our understanding of our own limitations into the very tool needed to finally detect a kindred signal in the void.

This article presented new independent research on Earth’s historical radio signature in the cosmos, the total duration and strength of modern METI transmissions and -by comparison- the detectability of thermonuclear explosions by extraterrestrial civilizations.

Erich Habich-Traut

References used in this text:

June 12, 2025June 12, 2025

Why Aliens Would Mine Asteroids—Not Enslave Humans for Gold

A friendly, fact-based rebuttal to Zechariah Sitchin’s Anunnaki story

Asteroid Mining

1. Setting the Stage

In 1976, self-taught scholar Zechariah Sitchin published The 12th Planet, launching the idea that a race of extraterrestrials called the Anunnaki genetically engineered early humans to dig up Earth’s gold. The motive, he claimed, was to save the Anunnaki’s distant home world by dispersing that gold into their planet’s atmosphere.

Forty-plus years later the theory still floats around TikTok, YouTube, and late-night radio—but it stumbles over one gigantic 21st-century fact: asteroid mining is a far simpler, safer, and richer way to collect precious metals than forcing a brand-new species to do back-breaking labor on a heavy-gravity world.

Let’s walk through the real science and economics:

2. Gold in Space: A Galactic Free-for-All

A single metallic asteroid just 1 kilometer across can hold more platinum-group metals than have ever been mined on Earth. (Mining the sky)
NASA’s Psyche mission, launched 13 October 2023, is headed toward 16 Psyche—an asteroid thought to be 60 percent iron and nickel, with traces of gold and platinum worth an estimated \$10,000 quadrillion (that’s a 1 followed by 19 zeros).
The asteroid belt, located between Mars and Jupiter, contains millions of these metallic bodies, all drifting in vacuum with essentially zero atmospheric drag.

In short, space is swimming in easy-to-reach metals. Why would any advanced species bother landing on a planet, fighting 9.8 m/s² of gravity, and supervising rebellious primates?

3. Physics 101: Hauling Ore Where Gravity Is Tiny

Earth’s escape velocity—how fast you must go to break free of our planet—is 11.2 km/s. From a typical near-Earth asteroid it’s often < 1 m/s.

If you want to launch one ton of gold off Earth, you need a gigantic rocket and a lot of fuel. If you want to launch that same ton from a small asteroid, you can throw it with the force of a good fastball.

Low gravity equals low cost. Any civilization capable of interstellar travel would recognize that.

4. Tech We Already Have (and Tech We’re Building)

Prospecting:
• Tiny “CubeSats” like NEA Scout carry telescopes and spectrometers to identify metal-rich candidates.
• Commercial start-ups—Astroforge and Asteroid Mining Corporation—have filed dozens of patents on micro-probes that can swarm an asteroid and map its composition.
Excavation:
• The European Space Agency’s Hera mission will test robotic drills and anchoring harpoons in 2026.
• Autonomous “mole” robots can tunnel without human presence, solving the classic “who holds the shovel?” problem.
Processing and Transport:
• A solar furnace can melt ore directly in vacuum—no atmosphere means no heat loss.
• Electromagnetic rail guns or rotating tethers could fling sealed metal ingots to pre-set orbits, no rockets required.

If humans in 2024 are prototyping these systems, imagine what a million-year-old species could do.

5. The Economics: It’s a No-Brainer

Cost to lift 1 kg from Earth to low orbit: ≈ \$3,000 with today’s SpaceX Falcon 9 rates (and that’s the cheapest option).
Cost to lift 1 kg from a small asteroid to low-Earth orbit: estimated at \$30–\$50—almost two orders of magnitude cheaper once the infrastructure is deployed.

Yes, asteroid mining demands an upfront investment, but an advanced civilization likely thinks on geological time scales. Training, feeding, and controlling a population of brand-new hominids for thousands of years? That’s a management nightmare—and a wildly risky business model.

6. What About the Ancient Texts?

Sitchin claimed that Sumerian cuneiform tablets describe the Anunnaki’s gold quest. Modern Assyriologists disagree:

The tablets can be read in standard Akkadian and Sumerian; they mention no alien planets, no genetic labs, and no gold shortage.
Sitchin’s translations often swap syllables or invent words that don’t exist in Mesopotamian lexicons.

In archaeology, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. No skeletons of alien “foremen,” no laser-cut mines, no hybrid-human DNA patterns have ever turned up.

7. The Science-Fiction Counterpoint

The idea of asteroid mining isn’t new; authors imagined it long before 1976:

1898 – Garrett P. Serviss, Edison’s Conquest of Mars
1952 – Robert A. Heinlein, The Rolling Stones
1963 – Poul Anderson, Tales of the Flying Mountains

Sitchin was actually less imaginative than turn-of-the-century pulp writers. Even the fictional Martians in 1898 skipped planet-based slave labor and went straight for the asteroids.

Asteroid Psyche may have been once the nickel-iron core of a small planet. It’s about as wide as Massachusetts. Credit: Screenshot courtesy of NASA

8. Counter-Rebuttals You Might Hear

❓ “Maybe the Anunnaki needed Earth’s specific isotopic mix of gold.”
• Isotopes of gold are created in supernovae and neutron-star mergers; the mix is uniform across the solar system. An asteroid and Earth gold are chemically identical.

❓ “Couldn’t gravity assist from Earth make shipping easier?”
• Gravity assists don’t change the fact that launching from Earth costs huge fuel. From an asteroid you can hoist the cargo and glide it inward using solar sails.

❓ “Slaves are cheap energy.”
• Not in biology: you must provide food, water, housing, and medical care—or lose productivity. Robots run on sunlight, don’t revolt, and can be shut off at night.

9. Where the Real Evidence Points

We’ve already retrieved asteroid samples with JAXA’s Hayabusa2 and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx. Both missions confirmed rich inventories of iron, nickel, cobalt, and precious metals.
In 2022 the U.S. government added asteroid mining to its Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, granting companies legal rights over what they collect. Politicians aren’t prone to passing laws about impossible ideas.
Global investment firms like Morgan Stanley estimate the space-resource market could hit \$1 trillion annually by 2040. No mention of Anunnaki labor plans in those reports.

10. Big Picture: What Would Aliens Actually Want?

Advanced civilizations likely value data, energy, and survivability far more than physical gold. Precious metals matter for circuitry and catalysts, but those are means to an end: building robust interstellar infrastructure. The fastest route to those metals is—again—low-gravity, high-concentration asteroids.

If ETs ever swing through our neighborhood, they’d probably:

Scan for suitable rocks using telescopes and spectral analysis.
Dispatch autonomous harvesters.
Haul refined ingots home or to an orbital manufacturing hub.

Humans, meanwhile, might not even notice—just as fish in the Pacific rarely notice when a cargo ship passes overhead.

11. Conclusion (TL;DR)

Aliens don’t need human gold miners. The physics is against it, the economics is against it, and the archaeological record is silent on it. In contrast, asteroid mining is easy, efficient, and already on humanity’s near-term roadmap.

So the next time a social-media video pops up claiming we’re the product of an ancient cosmic HR department, remember:

Zero-gravity rocks beat high-gravity planets.
Robots beat reluctant bipeds.
Evidence beats speculation.

And if you still crave a story about aliens digging holes on Earth, pick up a vintage sci-fi paperback—you’ll get better plots and fewer translation errors.

The Challenge of Cosmic Distances

Kaku emphasizes the immense distances separating stars and galaxies, which render travel by conventional means (like current human rocket technology) impractical for interstellar voyages, requiring tens of thousands of years to reach even the nearest stars. For intergalactic travel, the distances are millions of times greater.

Could UAPs be the scout spacecraft of a galactic civilization?

UAPs: are they from Kardashev Type III civilizations?

To answer that, we must journey into the realm of theoretical physics and cosmic evolution.
Imagine beings who have mastered energies on a scale that dwarfs our planetary concerns. That is the domain of a Kardashev Type III civilization.

The Kardashev Scale (after Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev) classifies civilizations by their energy consumption:

A Type 0 civilization, like our own, derives its energy from dead plants and animals (oil, coal) and is still subject to the whims of nature. We are, in cosmic terms, infants.
Type I civilization has mastered planetary energy. They can control the weather, harness the power of their entire planet, and utilize all the sunlight that strikes its surface. Think of Buck Rogers.
Type II civilization has graduated to stellar power. They can consume the entire energy output of their parent star. Dyson spheres, theoretical megastructures that could encompass a star, are a hallmark of such a civilization. Star Trek’s Federation is beginning to approach this level.
Then, there’s Type III: a galactic civilization. They command the power of an entire galaxy, perhaps harnessing the energy of billions of stars, maybe even manipulating black holes. Think of “Star Wars” or the ancient builders in many science fiction sagas.

Intergalactic travel isn’t a matter of building a bigger rocket. To traverse millions of light-years in any reasonable timeframe, you must manipulate space-time itself—harnessing Planck-scale energies to open wormholes or drive a warp bubble.

Who could wield such power?

Type I powers a planet.
Type II powers a solar system.
Only a Type III civilization can treat a galaxy as its playground—warping, folding, or tunneling through space-time at will.

So, if these UFOs are indeed piloted by beings from another world, and if they demonstrate capabilities like instantaneous acceleration, right-angle turns at hypersonic speeds, and, crucially, the ability to traverse interstellar or even intergalactic distances, then we are not dealing with a civilization just a few centuries ahead of us. The sheer energy requirements and the physics involved point to something far grander.

Such beings would likely be the product of a Type III civilization. They would have long ago mastered the fundamental forces, unlocked secrets of space-time that we are only just beginning to ponder, and command energies that could light up (or extinguish) stars.

While we must always approach these UAP reports with scientific rigor and skepticism, it’s an intriguing thought experiment. If they are real, and not of this Earth, then the beings behind them are not just visitors from another star; they are potentially emissaries from a civilization so advanced, they are practically gods in their ability to manipulate the cosmos.

It opens up the tantalizing, and perhaps humbling, possibility that we are but a tiny part of a much larger, far more advanced, cosmic neighborhood. The universe, it seems, is far more fascinating than we ever imagined.

FACT CHECK

The above text aligns with Dr. Michio Kaku’s public statements on:

The Kardashev Scale and Civilizational Classification
Type III civilizations’ capacity for intergalactic travel
The physics of space-time manipulation (Planck energy, wormholes, warp drives)
Recent UAP commentary (extreme maneuvers in Navy pilot footage, implied G-forces, trans-medium capabilities)

1. On the Kardashev Scale and Classification of Civilizations

Dr. Kaku frequently uses the Kardashev Scale as a framework to discuss the potential advancement of civilizations based on their energy consumption. He describes:

• Type 0 (like ours, reliant on fossil fuels)
• Type I (planetary; controlling weather and planetary energy)
• Type II (stellar; harnessing the entire output of their star, e.g. via a Dyson sphere)
• Type III (galactic; commanding the energy of an entire galaxy)

2. On Type III Civilizations and Intergalactic Travel

The article posits that intergalactic travel requires mastering energies on a galactic scale—a feat of a Type III civilization. Dr. Kaku agrees, suggesting such a civilization would have colonized its galaxy and harnessed the energy of billions of stars. He explicitly links Type III civilizations with space-time manipulation technologies (wormholes, warp drives).

3. On Advanced Technology and Manipulating Space-Time

The article notes that traversing intergalactic distances necessitates manipulating the fabric of space and time, including harnessing Planck energy. Dr. Kaku explains that while Special Relativity forbids FTL locally, General Relativity allows global warping of space-time. He emphasizes that only the colossal energies of a Type III civilization could achieve such feats.

4. On UFOs/UAPs and Highly Advanced Civilizations

The article speculates that if UAPs are extraterrestrial and exhibit capabilities beyond our physics, they might originate from Type III civilizations. Dr. Kaku has spoken increasingly about UAPs, noting new Navy pilot footage and other evidence. He points out that UAP characteristics (Mach 5–20 speeds, rapid acceleration, hundreds of Gs, transmedium travel) imply technologies far beyond ours. He cautions that these beings could be thousands or millions of years more advanced, placing them in the realm of Type III.

References:

Kardashev Scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale
The Truth About UFOs with Michio Kaku
https://www.newsweek.com/truth-about-ufos-michio-kaku-newsweek-radio-podcast-interview-1781550
The Physics of Extraterrestrial Civilizations
https://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-extraterrestrial-civilizations/
The four types of planetary civilizations, explained by Michio Kaku
https://youtu.be/qSnfMH8OX1g?si=ANYfhHYSSLBFb7OV
The Kardashev Scale – Can We Advance Beyond a Type III Civilization? https://futurism.com/the-kardashev-scale-type-i-ii-iii-iv-v-civilization
Scientists Must ‘Keep An Open Mind’ About UFOs, Says Michio Kaku https://www.iflscience.com/scientists-must-keep-an-open-mind-about-ufos-says-michio-kaku-60864
Reddit AMA: “I am Michio Kaku, physicist, futurist and author of THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY” https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/bghqn9/i_am_michio_kaku_physicist_futurist_and_author_of/
The Physics of Interstellar Travel https://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-interstellar-travel/

May 28, 2025June 8, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 8: The Cosmic Gold Rush

CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM
For generations, the night sky was a canvas of glittering uncertainty. We gazed upon it, pondered our solitude, and whispered the profound question: Are we alone in the habitable universe? For decades, our answers were mere philosophical musings, tethered by limited data and a rather quaint, Earth-centric view of the cosmos. But that era is over. We stand at the precipice of a new understanding, a scientific awakening that paints a truly breathtaking picture of a universe teeming with possibility.

© A real photograph by astrophotographer **Jheison Huerta**, displayed with permission

Decoding Destiny: Sagan and the Drake Equation’s Dawn

Once, the Drake Equation – our grand cosmic census – was a theoretical construct, its variables educated guesses in the twilight of astronomical knowledge. Carl Sagan first met Drake and his famous Equation in 1961—it constitutes a framework to estimate the number of communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Sagan, then a young graduate student, became a lifelong advocate for the equation’s optimistic interpretations.

Sagan’s Vision Meets Silicon: Certainty Replaces Cosmic Guesses

Based on the Drake equation, Sagan postulated between 1,000 and 1,000,000 communicative civilizations in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan, a visionary, frequently referenced the Drake Equation in his work and often used the original 1961 estimates, peering through the cosmic fog. (But also updated the numbers as new data emerged.) But today, the fog has lifted. The digital revolution, coupled with an explosion in space-faring technology, has ushered in a golden age of discovery, transforming those guesses into empirical certainties.

Exoplanet Explosion: Planets are Everywhere!

The Drake Equation, Copyright by https://sciencenotes.org

Consider the sheer scale. In 1992, the very first exoplanet was found. It was a singular pearl in a cosmic oyster. Now, less than three decades later, missions like Kepler and TESS have opened the floodgates! We’ve tallied nearly 6,000 confirmed worlds (Reference) orbiting distant stars – each a potential cosmic frontier. This staggering avalanche of data tells us something profound: planets are not a rarity; they are the rule. The fraction of stars with planets (fp) is no longer a hopeful guess of 50%; it’s closer to 100%! Every star you see twinkling above likely harbors its own planetary system.

Cosmic Oases: Billions of Habitable Worlds Beckon

And within these systems, the number of potentially habitable worlds (ne) is far from a mere statistical blip. Our own Milky Way galaxy alone, that majestic spiral of stars we call home, is now estimated to contain 300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets (Reference). Multiply that by the latest, mind-bending estimate of 2 trillion (or 2000 billion) galaxies (Reference) in the observable universe, and you’re looking at hundreds of billions of billions of cosmic oases!

A Sextillion Planets: Life’s Galactic Revolution

300 to 500 million potentially habitable planets multiplied by 2 trillion galaxies amounts to 600 billion billion to 1000 billion billion habitable planets. In other words, there are 600 qintillion to 1 sextillion potentially habitable planets in the cosmos.

This isn’t just an increase; it’s a galactic revolution in our baseline understanding of where life could arise.

Beyond Homeworlds: Rethinking Civilization’s Lifespan

But here’s where the possibilities truly explode – the “L” factor, the length of time a civilization releases detectable signals. Early calculations often assumed that civilizations were tied to their home world, vulnerable to asteroid impacts, climate change, or even self-destruction. This would lead to a tragically short “L,” perhaps a few thousand years. But for a truly advanced civilization, one that masters stellar energies, perhaps even galactic resources, simply staying put on one fragile world is a cosmic folly.

Cosmic Nomads: Galactic Colonization Extends ‘L’

Single Planet vs Multi System Civilizations

Frank Drake’s original formula makes no allowance for the ability of technological civilizations to colonize other planets or solar systems.

But as soon as another world is colonized, the chance of survival increases. Therefore far more older technical civilizations with space faring capability than Sagan originally assumed may exist.

A short critique of the Drake equation as commonly understood:

L – IS NOT simply the longevity of civilizations! Instead it’s the timespan that a civilization releases simple detectable signals. Earth itself has released easily detectable radio and TV signals for only 40 to 60 years before switching to spread spectrum digital communication, satellite, cable and internet. The signals that Earth is still leaking into space are random and repeating pings and blips from powerful radar, and unintelligible signals from digital sources that blend into the cosmic background noise (CMB).

Galactic Empires in a Blink: The Kardashev Scale Beckons

A civilization with space-faring capability, even one moving at a fraction of light speed, could colonize its entire galaxy in a mere 5 to 50 million years. In the cosmic timescale of billions of years, this is but the blink of an eye!

Blink Of An Eye

Colonization acts as a cosmic insurance policy, diversifying risk and extending the effective “lifetime” of a civilization from millennia to millions, even billions of years. This utterly transforms the “N” in the Drake Equation, suggesting a universe far more populated with ancient, thriving civilizations than we dared to dream. We’re talking about the emergence of Kardashev Type I, Type II, Type III and even Type IV civilizations – those that harness the power of their planet, their star, their galaxy or even the entire universe!

The Great Cosmic Silence: Unraveling the Fermi Paradox

Of course, the cosmic riddle persists: The Fermi Paradox. If the universe is so abundant with life, where is everybody? The silence, the eerie quiet of the cosmos, has led to theories like the “Great Filter” – a bottleneck that prevents life from reaching advanced stages, either in our past (making us incredibly rare) or, more ominously, in our future (a catastrophic universal speed bump). Or perhaps the “Rare Earth Hypothesis,” suggesting our planet’s specific conditions for complex life are extraordinarily unique.

Echoes of Advanced Life? Or a Cosmic Sanctuary Awaits?

But even these daunting questions now inspire a different kind of optimism. Perhaps the “Great Filter” lies behind us, making our existence all the more triumphant. Perhaps extraterrestrial civilizations are so vastly more advanced (Type III-IV) that their communications are simply beyond our current comprehension, a cosmic symphony we lack the instruments to hear.

And maybe the answer to the Fermi paradox is another: THE SANCTUARY HYPOTHESIS- coming soon.

The Quest Continues: A Universe Primed for Discovery

The search for ETI is no longer a fringe endeavor; it is a fundamental “market research” initiative into the ultimate cosmic landscape. The data is overwhelmingly in favor of abundance. The universe is a grand laboratory, a vast stage for the emergence of life and intelligence. And as we continue to unlock its secrets, each new discovery amplifies the profound conviction that we are not alone. The grandest adventure of all is just beginning.

“Billions and Billions”: The Catchphrase That Captured the Cosmos

One Sagan: The iconic catchphrase, “billions and billions,” was popularized by **comedian Johnny Carson**, who hosted *The Tonight Show*. Carson frequently did affectionate parodies of Sagan, mimicking his voice and intellectual demeanor, and in these skits, he would often quip, “billions and billions!”

This parody was so pervasive and well-loved that it became the phrase most people associated with Sagan, even though he didn’t originally say it that way. Sagan himself acknowledged this humorous invention by Carson and even titled his final book, published posthumously in 1997, ***Billions and Billions: Thoughts on Life and Death at the Brink of the Millennium***, playfully embracing the phrase that had become his popular legacy.

Carl Sagan (Cosmos) Parody by Johnny Carson (1980)

Million to Billion convertor

May 28, 2025May 28, 2025

This weeks latest news from the Wow! signal:

Paradigm Research Group Announces Plans for a Seventh X-Conference

Washington, DC, June 2025 — In anticipation of major developments surrounding the Disclosure process leading to the confirmation by a U.S. Government Leader of the existence of technologically advanced non-humans and the fact that the U.S. Government and Military have long been in possession of retrieved off-world vehicles, Paradigm Research Group is working to launched a seventh X-Conference in Washington, DC, early next year.

Hollywood Disclosure Alliance Board Member, Lisa Puzo Strickland, Launches New Website, Blog, And Speaking Platform

Nashville, TN, June 2025 — Lisa Puzo Strickland has announced the launch of her new website and blog which can be accessed HERE. After a successful 25+ year career in the radio, television, and record industries, Strickland earned her PhD in Philosophy and Parapsychology from the University of Sedona (Arizona) in 2023 and has since established herself as an authentic voice within the national UAP/UFO/NHI research communities.

Popular Sci-Fi Novel After They Came Now Available In Audiobook Format

Beverly Hills, CA, April, 2025 — The popular science-fiction novel After They Cameby author Dan Har ary is now available in the Audiobook format. The book was inspired by a major UFO sighting Harary had in 1970 with his late father, Jack Harary, an Electronics Engineer with the U.S. Army from 1951 – 1996. Today, Dan believes that his father was involved in a program to reverse-engineer recovered UFOs, which began with the U.S. Military back in the 1940s.

The Un-Network Announces Paranormal Writing Contest

Kansas City, Missouri, June 2025 — The Un-X Network is hosting a Paranormal Writing Contest for 2025. Those who wish to participate in this contest are asked to submit their paranormal short stories, real or imagined, to the Un-X Network by August 1, 2025.

Thirty Hollywood Disclosure Alliance Founding Members To Be Featured Guest Speakers During Contact In The Desert 2025

Beverly Hills, CA, June 2025 –Thirty Founding Members of The Hollywood Disclosure Alliance will be featured as Guest Speakers during the 2025 Contact in the Desert Conference, May 29 – June 2, at the beautiful Renaissance Esmeralda Resort and Spa in Indian Wells, CA. That conference will feature over 120 lectures, workshops, intensives and panels presented by the world’s most prestigious experts in the fields of UFO/UAP, Government Disclosure, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Science, Ancient Civilizations, Space Exploration, Future of Technology and Space Travel, Non-human Intelligence, Spirituality, and more.

Russia’s USO Secrets Book a Must-Read for Serious UFOlogists

Los Angeles, CA, June 2025 – The book Russia’s USO Secrets is a must-read for those interested in USO research conducted in the USSR, and later in Russia, according to longtime UAP Reseacher, Paul Stonehill.

May 23, 2025May 25, 2025

Unexplained Starlight Pulses: Is Advanced Tech Operating Covertly in Our Cosmic Neighborhood?

For decades, humanity has peered into the vast darkness between the stars, dreaming of the moment we might detect a sign of intelligence beyond our own. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has long focused on distant radio whispers or powerful laser flashes, while intriguingly, starlight pulses might reveal clues right in our cosmic backyard. But what if the most profound evidence isn’t coming from light-years away? Could it be from our very own cosmic backyard? Recent, startling discoveries from a dedicated optical observatory in Big Bear, California, are forcing us to confront this very question.

In May 2023, retired NASA scientist Richard Stanton, working in Big Bear, California, discovered an unexplained “pulsing” signal from a Sun-like star, HD 89389, in the Ursa Major (Great Bear) constellation. This star is approximately 100 light-years away. The signal was described as two identical and fast pulses occurring 4.4 seconds apart. It was published in the Acta Astronautica scientific journal.

Stanton noted that these pulses were unlike any other signals he’d detected during his 1,500 hours of searching. The signal’s unique pattern has left scientists puzzled. This pattern, consisting of a “brighter-fainter-brighter” sequence, is intriguing to researchers.

“We don’t know what kind of object could produce these pulses or how far away it is. We don’t know if the two-pulse signal is produced by something passing between us and the star or if it is generated by something that modulates the star’s light without moving across the field. Until we learn more, we can’t even say whether or not extraterrestrials are involved!“
– Richard Stanton

Stars Blink: Is Someone There?

Stanton has unveiled a truly perplexing phenomenon: pairs of incredibly fast, identical pulses of starlight. Imagine a star’s brightness undergoing a sudden, dramatic dance. There’s a rapid surge, then a sharp dip, followed by an equally swift return to its original intensity.

This entire sequence unfolds in mere milliseconds. After a brief pause of a few seconds, the exact same intricate pattern repeats. This occurs with precision that defies natural explanation.

Cosmic Code: Unraveling the Twin Pulses

The first captivating instance came from the star HD89389. The near-perfect replication of the “fine-structure” within each pulse wasn’t just intriguing; it screamed of a deliberate, non-random event. Even more chillingly, a deep dive into historical data uncovered an identical pair of pulses from HD217014. This occurred four years prior. This earlier event had been casually dismissed as “birds” – an innocuous explanation that now seems inadequate for such a profound celestial signature.

Not Just Birds: A Galactic Mystery

The implications are staggering. The sheer speed of these light changes immediately tells us one crucial thing: the source cannot be the distant star itself. No known stellar process could cause such rapid, precise fluctuations. This realization narrows the field dramatically. It places the origin of these mysterious flashes much closer to home, likely within our own solar system.

Close Encounter? Tracing the Origin

So, if not the stars, then what? While natural phenomena like unusual atmospheric disturbances or even binary asteroid systems are considered, the precision and repeatable nature of these pulses push scientists towards a more audacious hypothesis. They suspect edge diffraction, a well-understood optical effect. It describes how light bends and creates distinct patterns when passing by a sharp edge. The specific “bipolar” shape of these observed pulses – the characteristic increase, decrease, and subsequent increase in brightness – bears an uncanny resemblance to diffraction patterns expected if starlight interacts with edges of a nearby, opaque object.

Diffraction’s Clue: The Shadow of Something Else

Think of it this way: a previously unknown object, possibly a thin, flat structure or even a ring, momentarily crosses our line of sight to a distant star. As the star’s light skims past one edge, it creates the first pulse. When it passes the other edge, the second identical pulse is generated.

Eyes Wide Open: The Hunt for Hidden Objects

This theory, while still under investigation, ignites a firestorm of possibilities. If these are indeed diffraction patterns, it implies an object’s existence, possibly within our solar system, that is causing these obscurations. What kind of object? And more importantly, who or what created it?

A single telescope, no matter how powerful, can only offer limited clues. It can detect these fascinating anomalies. However, it can’t definitively tell us the object’s precise distance, speed, or true nature. That’s where the future of this extraordinary search comes into play.

The urgent call from the scientific community is for the development of Optical Telescope Arrays (OTAs). Imagine a network of precisely synchronized telescopes, positioned across the Earth. By meticulously measuring the infinitesimal time delays as this object’s shadow sweeps across each individual telescope, scientists could triangulate its position with astonishing accuracy. This method would determine its velocity and perhaps resolve its physical characteristics. This would be a leap from passive observation to active, investigative astronomy.

Beyond the Stars: ETI in Our Backyard?

And here, at the precipice of this discovery, lies the most profound question. If these pulses are confirmed to be caused by an object in our solar system, and if its trajectory suggests it’s not a natural body – what then? Could it be a long-lost piece of cosmic debris or an anomalous natural formation? Or, the thought that sends shivers through us, could this be a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence? Perhaps the ultimate “SETI signal” isn’t a deliberate message beamed across the galaxy. Could it be the unavoidable, accidental, signature of advanced technology operating in our celestial neighborhood?

The Ultimate Question: Are We Witnessing Alien Tech?

The universe continues to surprise us, challenging our assumptions and pushing the boundaries of what we believe possible. These inexplicable starlight flashes are more than just an astronomical curiosity; indeed, they are a cosmic riddle. It could, just possibly, hold the key to answering humanity’s most enduring question: Are we truly alone? The echoes from the void are growing clearer. The potential for a paradigm-shifting discovery has never been more tangible.

Reference:

Unexplained starlight pulses found in optical SETI searches, Richard H. Stanton
Acta Astronautica, Volume 233, August 2025, Pages 302-314
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576525002449?via%3Dihub

May 24, 2025May 25, 2025

The Sagan Paradox, Chapter 7: The UFO controversy

Sagan’s UFO Paradox: Fostering Scientific Rigor Through Skepticism and Advocacy

A landmark event highlighted the Carl Sagan UFO controversy: the 1969 symposium he co-organized for the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). This meeting notably brought together leading UFO proponents, such as J. Allen Hynek.

Cameo of J. Allen Hynek in “Close Encounters Of The Third Kind”, an UFO encounter category he defined himself..

The meeting also included prominent skeptics, like the first theoretical astronomer of the United States, Donald Menzel. In 1968, Menzel testified before the U.S. House Committee on Science and Astronautics – Symposium on UFOs, stating that he, Menzel, considered all UFO sightings to have natural explanations.

While critics accused Sagan of legitimizing what they considered a “pseudoscience,” Sagan defended the AAAS symposium. He argued that significant public interest in UFOs warranted serious scientific scrutiny.

Carl Sagan was a prominent advocate for the search for extraterrestrial life. Yet, he remained a skeptic regarding Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) as evidence of alien visitation. This seemingly contradictory stance fueled the ongoing debate between UFO skeptics and believers. This is often referred to as the Carl Sagan UFO controversy.

Sagan’s influence on UFO studies produced its most significant beneficial effect by pushing researchers to ground their investigations more firmly in scientific methods. This emphasis on rigor contributed to the emergence of two distinct categories of researchers in the field.

SKEPTICS VS. BELIEVERS: The Secret War Over UFOs

A: Serious UAP researchers who set themselves the goal of identifying and cataloging UFOs, with the main focus on the assumption that there can be no extraterrestrial UFOs. Their focus was on finding conventional, or “banal,” explanations for sightings. They aimed to demystify the phenomenon and bring it within the realm of established science. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy played a role in how these explanations were pursued.

B: Marginalized Fringe UFO researchers, who in contrast remained open to, or actively pursued, the hypothesis of extraterrestrial intelligence behind UFO sightings found themselves increasingly on the periphery. This group, while not necessarily uncritical or prone to accepting every hoax, was willing to explore unconventional explanations. These were explanations that the “serious” camp often dismissed outright.

UAP or UFO? The Government’s Sneaky Word Game to HIDE the Extraterrestrial Truth!

The contemporary preference for the term UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon or Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) rather than UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) starkly reflects the divide between serious and fringe research.

While both terms essentially refer to the same core mystery—observed objects or phenomena in the sky that are not immediately identifiable—’UAP’ has gained traction among those seeking to legitimize their research. They want to avoid the cultural baggage and stigma associated with ‘UFOs,’ which are often colloquially synonymous with alien spacecraft. This shift is part of the Carl Sagan UFO controversy, as different terminologies affect the perception of research.

Researchers, particularly those affiliated with governmental or academic institutions, often opt for ‘UAP’ to protect their professional reputations. They use it to signal a more data-driven, agnostic approach, free from preconceived notions of extraterrestrial involvement.

“BANAL” OR ALIEN? Inside the Bitter Feud Splitting UFO Hunters in Two!

The comparison between a case like the authors “Mufon UFO case #111680” and a frame from the Pentagon’s “Gimbal UAP” video can illustrate this division:

A MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) case, typically investigated by citizen researchers often aligned with the “fringe” category (though MUFON itself has varying methodologies), might present evidence and interpretations that lean towards or explicitly suggest an extraordinary (extraterrestrial) origin.

A government source released the “Gimbal” video, and serious UAP researchers—including military and intelligence analysts—analyzed it. They discussed its flight characteristics, sensor data, and possible but elusive mundane explanations. Although they acknowledge the video’s anomalous nature, they focus their rigorous approach on ruling out known technologies or natural phenomena.

In contrast, the “fringe” perspective may treat the footage as evidence supporting an extraterrestrial hypothesis. But this is due to careful consideration.

Unusual Flight Characteristics in Navy’s 2015 Gimbal UAP Sighting

A study by Yannick Peings and Marik von Rennenkampff analyzes the Gimbal UAP video.

“FRINGE” RESEARCHERS FIGHT BACK

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. As a result, these inquiries were pushed to the margins. This is a key part of what makes the Carl Sagan UFO controversy so enduring.

In essence, Carl Sagan’s legacy in UFO studies is complex. His insistence on scientific rigor undoubtedly elevated the quality of investigation in certain quarters. It helped to filter out less credible claims. However, it also contributed to a climate where exploring the more speculative, yet potentially profound, extraterrestrial aspects of the phenomenon became scientifically and academically challenging. Consequently, such inquiries were pushed to the margins.

PHOTO PROOF? 1947 UFO vs. Pentagon’s “Gimbal” UAP

Similarities. Left: 1947 – first modern UFO sighting, Kenneth Arnold
Right: 2015 – Pentagon Gimbal UAP. © ContactProject.org 25. May 2025

SAGAN’S PARADOX: Did His “Science First” Rule KILL the Search for Alien Life?

Was Sagan a hero of reason—or did his skepticism accidentally suppress the truth? The ongoing debate and the terminological distinctions highlight this enduring tension between cautious, mainstream scientific inquiry and the persistent, more speculative allure of the unknown inherent in the UFO/UAP enigma. Discussions continue over his role and influence in shaping public perception and scientific investigation of unexplained aerial phenomena. The Carl Sagan UFO controversy exemplifies this tension.

May 23, 2025May 23, 2025

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