
The future of Gaza is at a crossroads. Will it be rebuilt through external control and dependency, or through Palestinian sovereignty and self-determination?
The answer lies beneath the waves. Gaza and Palestine hold vast oil and gas reserves – valued at over $500 billion – that have been kept inaccessible by occupation.
Models like the Trump administration “GREAT Trust,” that defer sovereignty and ignore this resource wealth, are rejected. Instead, The Gaza Renewal Compact (GRC) is proposed.
The GRC is a sovereignty-first plan based on 5 pillars:
1. Sovereignty First: Palestinian control from day one.
2. Resource Nationalism: A Palestinian wealth fund to manage energy revenues for the people.
3. Measured Development: Prioritizing homes, schools, and hospitals.
4. Right to Remain: Rebuilding communities in place, no forced relocations.
5. International Support, Not Control: Aid without strings attached.
This is a vision for a future where Palestine leverages its own energy wealth to fuel reconstruction, economic autonomy, and lasting dignity.
The choice is clear: dependency or sovereignty.
Here is the GRC Executive Summary as a downloadable PDF: https://contactproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/The-Gaza-Renewal-Compact-GRC.pdf
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Full text follows:
Gaza’s Future: From Trusteeship to Self-Determination
The Gaza Renewal Compact (GRC): Leveraging Palestine’s Energy Wealth for Sovereignty and Reconstruction

Executive Summary
Gaza – and broader Palestinian territories – are endowed with significant undeveloped oil and gas reserves, estimated by UNCTAD at approximately 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil, valued collectively at $524 billion at 2017 prices. Yet occupation and political fragmentation have prevented Palestinians from harnessing this wealth.
The Gaza Renewal Compact (GRC) proposes a reinvigorated strategy: centering Palestinian sovereignty and economic autonomy in reconstruction, diverging sharply from dependency-inducing models like the “GREAT Trust.” Through the GRC, Palestinians can claim, manage, and benefit from their energy wealth directly – fueling a transition from occupation to self-determination.
1. Background: Gaza’s Strategic Energy Wealth
Levant Basin Reserves: Modern estimates place recoverable reserves at 122 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil, which UNCTAD values at approximately $524 billion – a potential windfall for regional peace and development.
Gaza Marine Field: The Gaza Marine offshore gas field alone holds about 30 billion cubic meters of gas (~1 TCF), potentially generating $4 billion in revenue – or around $100 million per year over 15 years, once legal and development barriers are removed.

This wealth is currently inaccessible under the occupation. The GRC frames these reserves as a foundation for economic sovereignty, not external profit extraction.
2. The GREAT Trust Proposal: A Missed Opportunity
The GREAT Trust outlines a high-investment reconstruction model (US$70–100 B public spending, $324 B returns) under U.S.-led trusteeship, featuring mega-projects, relocation incentives, and delayed Palestinian sovereignty. Critically, it:
- Omits any recognition of Palestinian rights to vast energy reserves.
- Risks transforming Gaza into a regional economic enclave managed externally.
- Defers sovereignty to “deradicalization,” reinforcing dependency.
3. The Gaza Renewal Compact (GRC)
A sovereignty-first, resource-centered reconstruction framework based on the following pillars:
- Sovereignty First
- Full governance, energy rights, and border control rest with Palestinians from day one.
- Resource Nationalism
- Establish a Palestinian National Wealth Fund (PNWF), akin to Norway’s oil fund, to manage revenues from gas and oil extraction responsibly and equitably.
- Measured Development
- Prioritize housing, health, energy, and education, using extractive revenues to stabilize society before engaging in large-scale projects.
- Right to Remain
- No population incentives or relocations – reconstruction must rebuild communities in situ, honoring Palestinians’ connection to their land.
- International Support, Not Control
- Provide UN and international technical and financial aid that supports Palestinian-led decisions, without conditionality tied to sovereignty or relocation.
4. Legal Foundation for the GRC
UN Charter & International Law: Palestinians retain rights to their resources and self-determination (UNGA 1803; ICJ Wall Opinion; Hague Regulations; Fourth Geneva Convention).
UNCLOS Rights: Gaza’s verified Mubarak Marine field and broader Levant Basin reserves fall within Exclusively Economic Zone entitlements – Palestinian state recognition would cement these legal claims.
5. Policy Recommendations
For Palestinian Leadership
- Formally recognize and declare Gaza’s EEZ under UNCLOS; press UN and allies to back long-standing jurisdictional claims.
- Launch the PNWF under the GRC, ensuring transparency, anti-corruption, and inclusive distribution of revenues.
- Ratify a Resource Sovereignty Charter affirming that resource wealth benefits all Palestinians, in perpetuity.
- Categorically reject relocation policies and ensure communal investment in Gaza’s redevelopment.
For Civil Society & Diaspora
- Advocate for energy ownership narratives: from dependency to self-provision.
- Collaborate with global resource-rights movements (e.g., Bolivia, Namibia) to build solidarity and effective governance principles.
- Establish civilian-led monitoring mechanisms to ensure equitable distribution of resource revenues.
For the International Community
- Recognize Palestinian sovereignty – including resource jurisdiction – and support GRC-aligned plans.
- Provide technical support for setting up the PNWF, sustainable energy infrastructure, and legal defense of resource rights.
- Pressure Israel to cease exploitation of disputed resources and allow Palestinian access to Gaza Marine.

Even with optimistic growth, Gaza’s economy faces a long recovery, highlighting the need for transformative economic strategies like the GRC.
6. Conclusion
The GRC offers a fundamentally different vision for Gaza: one rooted in Palestinian self-determination, economic autonomy, and resource justice, rather than externally imposed trusteeship. Harnessing Gaza’s proven gas and oil reserves – estimated at $524 billion in the broader basin, and $4 billion from Gaza Marine itself – can be the bedrock of a sovereign, dignified, and sustainable rebuilding. The choice between dependency or sovereignty has never been clearer.
References
- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). “The Economic Costs of the Israeli Occupation for the Palestinian People: The Impeded Oil and Natural Gas Sector.” United Nations, 2019. https://unctad.org/publication/economic-costs-israeli-occupation-palestinian-people-unrealized-oil-and-natural-gas
“Recognised Palestinian state could develop disputed gas resources, expert says,” by Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic editor, 20 Jul 2025
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